tournament variance - need help!

[pokermonk]

I've been playing on-line for over 4 years now and consider myself a good tournament player. Recently however, Im finding more and more that Im being knocked out of large MTT near the final stages (before the bubble) all with crazy beats. I have been playing the $10,000 guarantee $15buyin on Pacific. These tournaments are great cos of the number of fish and dead money in the early stages. There is usually about 650 players in and a solid game is enough to whittle through most of em.

However, I have been knocked out of last 20 or so in position of 60-90. ALL WITH CRAZY BEATS and not when Ive been short-stacked/desperate. eg. AKs -v- AQ all in - he hits Q on riv. AJ on flop of J 2 4, I get reraised, I put him all in, he calls with QJ and hits Q on turn etc etc etc.
Its been happening a lot on Party also where the MTT play is generally tighter.

My question is essentially how often u can expect to win or come in top 10 of a MTT of 650 players if you are playing a perfect game ie. how often can you avoid bad beats in later stages? I would assume that bad beats are more likely if there is a higher number of players in a tournament - should I try to play in tournaments with less than 650 people just to get a couple of wins/money finishes?

At the minute, I feel like quiting tournament poker for good. I would like to hear from any good tournament players who have not won anything for months and how you deal mentally with the bad beats. Do you stop playing MTT for a while or do you try a different level of MTT?

[Al4As]

For me, its all about putting my money as a favorite.
After that, what can you do?

[Sprayed]

There's nothing you can do about bad beats. If you get your chips in with the best hand you are going to win in the long run. I think that you need to evaluate the times that you put all of your chips in. Sometimes only reraising or check/call is a better option. Another thing to look at is are you playing marginal hands out of position when your stack doesn't allow it?

It is tough for people here to give you a clear answer without seeing the types of hands that you are playing. Post some HH's and let people give you some advice. Lastly, you may need some time off. You might be tilting from some bad beats.

[Icarus]

Re:Bad beats

Just started playing Dec 2005,
Just a quick observation that I am working on
No player has dropped out of the table for a couple of orbits.
Player 1 goes all in pre flop with 1500 CHIPS:
Your thinking he has a monster!!
Player 2 has 2000 chips,
You should call him with almost any hand
No matter what cards player 1 has, player 2 will win the race
70% of the time.
Poker sites wont allow the game to go on indefinitely,
Just watch a MTT, see how often it happens

[Sprayed]

Re:Bad beats

Just started playing Dec 2005,
Just a quick observation that I am working on
No player has dropped out of the table for a couple of orbits.
Player 1 goes all in pre flop with 1500 CHIPS:
Your thinking he has a monster!!
Player 2 has 2000 chips,
You should call him with almost any hand
No matter what cards player 1 has, player 2 will win the race
70% of the time.
Poker sites wont allow the game to go on indefinitely,
Just watch a MTT, see how often it happens

Please don't be that guy. IT'S RIGGED!!!!!

Question for you. What do the sites get out of rigging an MTT?
The MTT won't go on indefinitely because people will eventually blind out due to the increasing blinds.

[Icarus]

I am not saying its rigged,
Iam saying they have a turnover to meet
dont enter a MTT just watch see what happens

[badandy519]

^-------------- LOL @ that guy

[Miffed22001]

note: poker isnt rigged.

bad beats happen always will. yes its annoying if you play good and then get a 20% against you but it will happen at least once in an mtt. Just too many hands.
My KJ sucked out big style on QQ the other night. After that i had KK broken twice, trips runner runnered and another beat when i called an all in way ahead. I didnt dare complain after 3 outering someone :P
It happens. Despite that you only need to win 2 or maybe 3 coin flips in an mtt and you get to the final table (maybe more in big fields) so don worry. When the cards run for you just make sure you make the most of em and often final tablers are the coin flip winners or just damn good players.

[Sprayed]

I am not saying its rigged,
Iam saying they have a turnover to meet
dont enter a MTT just watch see what happens

Dude, what turnover? They run tourneys all the time. Yea, they all end about the same time, but that's because of the blind increases. This causes people to push AI when short stacked and some win and some lose. It's that simple.