Two fold or call hands

[chardrian]

1) Game #1249778025 - Tournament $40,000 R&A - 2,000/4,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em -
2006/01/29-17:39:08.4 (CST)
Table "$40,000 R&A 12" (MTT) -- Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: ARTofWAR (84,009 in chips)
Seat 2: I_Rock_U (74,866 in chips)
Seat 3: rounder2781 (67,517 in chips)
Seat 4: eltelopc (104,188 in chips)
Seat 5: Encino Mann (44,625 in chips)
Seat 6: j3w3lynn (41,777 in chips)
Seat 8: chardrian (80,123 in chips)
Seat 9: mntnman (46,062 in chips)
I_Rock_U: Ante (200)
rounder2781: Ante (200)
eltelopc: Ante (200)
Encino Mann: Ante (200)
j3w3lynn: Ante (200)
chardrian: Ante (200)
mntnman : Ante (200)
ARTofWAR: Ante (200)
mntnman : Post Small Blind (2,000)
ARTofWAR: Post Big Blind (4,000)
Dealing...
Dealt to chardrian [ 8h ]
Dealt to chardrian [ 8s ]
I_Rock_U: Fold
rounder2781: Fold
eltelopc: Fold
Encino Mann: Fold
j3w3lynn: Raise (8,000)
chardrian: Call (8,000)
mntnman : Fold
ARTofWAR: Fold
*** FLOP *** : [ 2h Kd 3c ]
j3w3lynn: Bet (33,577) - all-in
chardrian????

2)We are down to about 25 players. Doubling up here means I am at least 75% to final table.
Game #1249829181 - Tournament $40,000 R&A - 4,000/8,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em -
2006/01/29-18:02:01.9 (CST)
Table "$40,000 R&A 12" (MTT) -- Seat 6 is the button
Seat 1: ponyandtrap (124,132 in chips)
Seat 2: I_Rock_U (66,466 in chips)
Seat 3: snake002 (36,720 in chips)
Seat 4: eltelopc (106,888 in chips)
Seat 6: acaagain (273,208 in chips)
Seat 8: chardrian (164,287 in chips)
Seat 9: LXIXME17 (158,617 in chips)
Seat 10: yourmyboyblu (244,326 in chips)
I_Rock_U: Ante (400)
snake002: Ante (400)
eltelopc: Ante (400)
acaagain: Ante (400)
chardrian: Ante (400)
LXIXME17: Ante (400)
yourmyboyblu: Ante (400)
ponyandtrap: Ante (400)
chardrian: Post Small Blind (4,000)
LXIXME17: Post Big Blind (8,000)
Dealt to chardrian [ Qs ]
Dealt to chardrian [ As ]
yourmyboyblu: Fold
chardrian said, "ur luckbox is on fire"
ponyandtrap: Fold
I_Rock_U: Fold
snake002: Fold
eltelopc: Fold
acaagain: Fold
acaagain said, "lol"
chardrian: Raise (20,000)
acaagain said, "started with the best hand"
chardrian said, "yup"
I_Rock_U said, "yup"
LXIXME17: Raise (150,217)
chardrian: ???

No real reads on either guy.

[WildBobAA]

1st hand I raise/fold PF. Why are you just calling PF? Playing for set value here is bad and you're not going to flop 3 undercards.

2nd hand I fold with no read.

[chardrian]

Hand 1 - I wasnt playing for set value. Blinds are so big, that everyone folds unless they have a hand.

And even if I did screw up - what would you do on that flop?

Hand 2 - why fold to the reraise without a read? What range of hands do you put him on?

[WildBobAA]

Hand 1, that's one of the best possible flops that doesn't contain an 8, I'd probably call.

Hand 2, I just hate calling off my stack with AQs. I'd call here if he's been wild and pushing a lot but you have so little invested that you can fold here and still have a lot of chips. Also what has happened before when you have been blind vs blind with this guy?

You're really deep in the tournament and usually people wouldn't push over a raise at this stage when they don't have AQ beat. Maybe he has AT or AJ, but he probably has AQ, AK, or a pair and I'm not looking for a race here.

Like I said, with no read I fold.

[chardrian]

Maybe he has AT or AJ, but he probably has AQ, AK, or a pair and I'm not looking for a race here.

Like I said, with no read I fold.

This was the answer I was waiting for. And the answer I want to debate. There are times, where I agree a race is not what you are looking for. And even here I don't want (I want to be against Ax or QK) to race. But, is a race such a bad thing here?

The reason I don't hate a race here is because of the amount of chips involved. He has basically the same amount of chips as I do. And I need a double up to be pretty for final table.

I could fold here, and might luck out and catch a hand later - but we are at a stage now, where it is basically push/fold preflop with most players. Or I could call and race now and basically ensure myself a final table.

Top 8 earn over $1k. Where I am at right now is a little over $200.

If you knew for sure (I know you don't which makes a fold a very good option here), but if you knew it was a race for sure - would you still fold?

[WildBobAA]

Personally I would fold in this situation. I think you can fold and still have enough chips to outplay people with. I don't mind taking races as long as I'm the one pushing in, giving my opponent a chance to fold.

I guess it would really depend on my opponents. If I thought I was a better player than the table, I would fold here but if I felt I was weak compared to the rest of the table, I would gamble. Generally, I'd fold though. But yeah, this is definatly debatable.

[chardrian]

I do think I'm better than the rest of the table - (I always think that tho). But not THAT much better.

Just seems to me that so much luck is involved late in tourneys that this situation might be worth the coin toss.

50% chance to basically assure yourself of at least $1k

versus 50% to lose and end with just $200.

Or... 100% to just fold and play it - but I don't what my chances of making the FT are then. If it's still 50/50 then I say fold.

But I agree - definitely debateable

[zenbitz]

Hand 1... I no like pre-flop. Because you have to fold on the flop with the K high. I think relative stack size indicates you push this pre-flop, unless you think his min/raise is strength. Ah, but is it AK or TT+... either way you have to fold this flop. If min/raises from LP have been getting folds, I think you have to push your 88.

Hand 2... AQs is probably the minimum you need to call this. You cannot decided correctly here without a read (what is villian's range?) and a counter read (what does villian think Hero has?). I don't think that's overthinking with 25 left in the 40K.

It's so close that AQo is probably a clear fold and AKo is probably a call.
With no read at all (like you or he just joined table)... I probably time/out fold.

Oh, I thought you were on the button... not SB. The odds of AK/QQ/KK/AA are minute with one opponent AND the chance he has AX is much, much greater.

With no read this is a clear call. I would have to have a read that the guy was supertight in BB to fold. If I were you, I would be making similar raises with any A, any K any PP at absolute minimum SB/BB. Probably any 2 bway as well.

[chardrian]

Hand 1 - I am not liking the push preflop as much there because I think I am relegating myself to a race by doing so. The raiser is too shortstacked to fold there.

I am also very interested in why you think I have to fold this flop. If the king helped my opp here, why would he push?

[WildBobAA]

That's why I'd call the flop. If you're not playing for set value (which you correctly weren't), that's about as good a flop as you can ask for. His raise PF looks weak (altought it might be strong if you have a read). AQ, AJ takes his line, also 66 or 77. If you call the PF raise, you have to call that flop.

[chardrian]

Yup - my read was the same as yours WildBob - I thought a long time, and called. He flipped AJ.

A bet of like 12k there would have scared me more in the end.

For the results oriented - I also called in Hand 2. The opp flipped over 22. His hand held up and he finished 3rd for somewhere around $5k.

[zenbitz]

I am also very interested in why you think I have to fold this flop. If the king helped my opp here, why would he push?

The K doesn't have to help him. He could have 99 also. Finally, he should push because he's short stacked and pretty much has to. Given that you deeply considering calling with middle pair... pushing here with KQ or something isn't a bad play.

Your logic here is mixed. You say that he cannot min-raise and then fold to your push. This implies that he has 1/2 a brain, and should only min-raise very strong hands. Furthermore, it implies that with 1/2 a brain, he might realize the above (that he has to push the flop regardless). Finally - if he IS brainless, then he could push the flop with KK because he's a brainless donk!

EDIT I just read he had AJ. SS m/r with AJ. Ugh. So much for logic. Why would you m/r AJ and push the flop? I guess the moral of the story is, if you are going to call pre-flop, you should be prepared to call on the flop if it's average+ for you (the 2-3 is pretty sweet)

[JeffreyGB]

I agree with basically everything Bob said in his responses.

The 88 hand, I'm almost definitely pushing preflop. I don't mind being the raiser into a coinflip because it gives the added chance of winning if opp folds. I rarely see a min-raise like that mean actual strength, and would be a tad surprised if opp called the push, but I'm fine with it when he does. Part of why I don't mind the flip here is also that even when you lose you're still in it.

Without a read, I fold the AQ hand as well. I don't like flipping when I'm not desperate and the result of losing the flip is to be out of the tournament. The added chance that you're dominated here seals the deal for me. As mentioned, all of this can be thrown out the window with a read.