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Monster draw. Correct play?

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  1. #1

    Default Monster draw. Correct play?

    Early in a 10+ 1 rebuy + 1 addon. In a cash game I'd love to be all in here, but keep in mind I have a big stack. Should I not want to risk it here? Villian seems solid. Nothing out of line so far.

    PokerStars Game #3941209954: Tournament #19225109, Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/02/11 - 20:50:23 (ET)
    Table '19225109 21' Seat #2 is the button
    Seat 1: Willie Horn (2975 in chips)
    Seat 2: dolohov (6240 in chips)
    Seat 3: bigbrains (3415 in chips)
    Seat 4: bdawg56kg (6570 in chips)
    Seat 5: C. Orange (4780 in chips)
    Seat 6: phattchumpy (4670 in chips)
    Seat 7: unique1c111 (1160 in chips)
    Seat 8: roddy11 (2160 in chips)
    Seat 9: lamb34 (2610 in chips)
    bigbrains: posts small blind 15
    bdawg56kg: posts big blind 30
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to bdawg56kg [8c 7c]
    C. Orange: folds
    phattchumpy: folds
    unique1c111: folds
    roddy11: folds
    lamb34: calls 30
    Willie Horn: folds
    dolohov: folds
    bigbrains: folds
    bdawg56kg: checks
    *** FLOP *** [Kd 5c 6c]
    bdawg56kg: bets 90
    lamb34: raises 90 to 180
    bdawg56kg: raises 820 to 1000
    lamb34: raises 1580 to 2580 and is all-in
    bdawg56kg: calls 1580
  2. #2
    I'm calling. You have way too many outs.
  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2005
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    Board: Kd 6c 5c
    Dead:

    equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
    Hand 1: 50.8794 % 50.88% 00.00% { 8c7c }
    Hand 2: 49.1206 % 49.12% 00.00% { KK+, 66-55, AKs, KJs+, AKo, KJo+ }

    Looks good, I'm not sure about that range though. His play seems like a 55 or 66, but in a rebuy he could have all sorts of stuff.

    edit - you are 42% even if he has a set. Easy call.

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