Pocket 9s' with 3 left - fold, call or push here?

[GatorJH]

Both players were pretty solid, but unimaginative in that they played their hands fairly straight up and only went all-in with solid holdings.

What would your play here be and why?

Stage #321788319 Tourney ID 405354 Holdem Single Tournament No Limit $150 - 2006-02-10 15:18:11 (ET)
Table: 5743558 (Real Money) Seat #2 is the dealer
Seat 1 - RESINWOMAN ($4145 in chips)
Seat 2 - GATORJERRYH ($6525 in chips)
Seat 8 - H00TY ($2830 in chips)
H00TY - Posts small blind $150
RESINWOMAN - Posts big blind $300
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to GATORJERRYH [9c 9d]
GATORJERRYH - Raises $900 to $900
H00TY - Calls $750
RESINWOMAN - All-In(Raise) $3845 to $4145
GATORJERRYH - ????

edit: I just noticed that a call is all that is necessary to push HooTY all-in, so the choices are down to call or fold.

[AHiltz]

Call

I would have open pushed though.

[Phantaroth]

Fold. I think youll have a better chance later since your probley beat or vs AK AQ AJ or an overpair you dont have good chances.

EM I RIGHT?


Unless you have a read that this guy is very loose, at best your vs two overs... I can't see this guy pushing vs a raise and a call with a bad hand...

[GatorJH]

Call

I would have open pushed though.

Why open push? Is it too late in the game to play this hand for value? Do you want to go up against anyone here or not? If so, then a push will knock out anyone without a premium hand.

The one arguement I can see for a push is that it eliminates any tough decisions when overcards hit on the flop, however, I have position and feel confident that neither player will try to make an empty bluff at the pot after my opening raise.

[GatorJH]

Fold. I think youll have a better chance later since your probley beat or vs AK AQ AJ or an overpair you dont have good chances.

EM I RIGHT?


Unless you have a read that this guy is very loose, at best your vs two overs... I can't see this guy pushing vs a raise and a call with a bad hand...

You are getting at least 1.8 to 1 on your money (2.4 to 1 if HooTY calls) so if you win the pot approx 37% of the time a call is +ev.

Let's say that you call and also that HooTY calls. That would create a main pot with 8,490 in it and a side pot with 2,630. If you lose both pots you would have 2380 left. If you win the side pot and lose the main pot you now have 5,010, and if you win both pots you win the tourney.

Does anyone want to calculate the + or - ev on this?

[boost]

this is a 150$ sng? Im guess that this is a squeeze play semi bluff. Hes got TT JJ AK AQ AJ AT and possilby 88. If we include 88 and AT, you are around 50% to win vs this guy I believe, and you are getting better hten 1 to 1 odds. Also if you lose here you still have chips, not a lot but enough. Also the third guy is not really a factor, because all you have to do is win the side pot to break even. If you win outright, you win the tourney almost 100% (100% if both call, and you are almost 100% winning with that huge stack heads up). Also 99 is ery strong 3 handed, however with a call after you and a reraise it doesnt look so strong. But then we get back to what the guy is pushing with, and It mostly comes down to a dead even coinflip. I really think you have the stack to fold, and you also have the stack to call, this can go either way.

[mcatdog]

Fold. I think youll have a better chance later since your probley beat or vs AK AQ AJ or an overpair you dont have good chances.

EM I RIGHT?


Unless you have a read that this guy is very loose, at best your vs two overs... I can't see this guy pushing vs a raise and a call with a bad hand...

The thing is if he has AK AQ or AJ then folding would be a huge mistake.

He's made a nice squeeze play, but I probably call, the pushing range I'd put him on denotes that you are +EV in this hand.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   2,763,658,656  games     3.453 secs   800,364,510  games/sec

Board: 
Dead:  

        	equity (%)  	win (%)	tie (%) 
Hand  1:	56.4666 %  	56.02% 	00.45%      { 99 }
Hand  2:	43.5334 %  	43.08% 	00.45%      { 22+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }


---

[GatorJH]

Boots,
This is a $10 SNG (the blinds are at $150). Does that change your thinking? BTW, I hadn't even considered a squeeze play, as you just don't run up against too many of them at the $10 SNG level.

[GatorJH]

Fold. I think youll have a better chance later since your probley beat or vs AK AQ AJ or an overpair you dont have good chances.

EM I RIGHT?


Unless you have a read that this guy is very loose, at best your vs two overs... I can't see this guy pushing vs a raise and a call with a bad hand...

The thing is if he has AK AQ or AJ then folding would be a huge mistake.

That is EXACTLY what I was thinking.

I will post the results either later tonight or tomorrow, so if anyone else has any thoughts get them in.

[AHiltz]

Why open push? Is it too late in the game to play this hand for value?

Because it looks like you have a lesser hand and are trying to take the blinds. You can get hands like A8 to call.

[Gareth]

Both players were pretty solid, but unimaginative in that they played their hands fairly straight up and only went all-in with solid holdings.

I think it is more the case that he has a big PP or AK so either a huge underdog or a coinflip.

Fold - hope it goes heads up - then take advantage of this read you have on him.

[Rockymv]

As the big stack in that spot I'm open pushing any mid pair

[fjuanl]

What is your table image? Have you been raising preflop a lot 3-4 handed? If you have been playing aggressively lately I would think villians pushing ranges would lower, making 99 look pretty good.

[Sprayed]

As played call. Push preflop.

[GatorJH]

What is your table image? Have you been raising preflop a lot 3-4 handed? If you have been playing aggressively lately I would think villians pushing ranges would lower, making 99 look pretty good.

My table image was not that aggressive as I felt that, with my chip stack, I didn't have to steal blinds unless I had a decent hand.

It seems like the majority of the opinions think I should have open pushed, which is a strategy I am still working on and to be honest didn't even think about at the time. As you can see it did work out for me, although I got lucky.

Thanks for the input everyone.

RESINWOMAN - All-In(Raise) $3845 to $4145
GATORJERRYH - Calls $3245
H00TY - All-In $1930
*** FLOP *** [7h 9s Ah]
*** TURN *** [7h 9s Ah] [10s]
*** RIVER *** [7h 9s Ah 10s] [6s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RESINWOMAN - Shows [Qs Qd] (One pair, queens)
GATORJERRYH - Shows [9c 9d] (Three of a kind, nines)
H00TY - Shows [Kh Qc] (ace high)
GATORJERRYH Collects $2630 from side pot-1
GATORJERRYH Collects $8490 from main pot