I can't believe I'm asking this but...

[Rockymv]

Any way I can lay this down?

PokerStars Game #3862231679: Tournament #19185353, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/02/04 - 17:01:51 (ET)
Table '19185353 1' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: ferniboy (1650 in chips)
Seat 2: Victorvdb (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: casinoking (1250 in chips)
Seat 4: grainpit (1470 in chips)
Seat 5: SaxManMike (1470 in chips)
Seat 6: Rockymv (1480 in chips)
Seat 7: ITTA (1220 in chips)
Seat 8: Gillooly (1970 in chips)
Seat 9: HK Mancini (1500 in chips)
Rockymv: posts small blind 10
ITTA: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rockymv [As Ah]
Gillooly: calls 20
HK Mancini: folds
ferniboy: calls 20
Victorvdb: calls 20
casinoking: folds
grainpit: folds
SaxManMike: folds
Rockymv: raises 100 to 120
ITTA: folds
Gillooly: calls 100
ferniboy: calls 100
Victorvdb: folds
*** FLOP *** [3c 2h 9h]
Rockymv: bets 360
Gillooly: folds
ferniboy: raises 640 to 1000
Rockymv: ?????

[ProZachNation]

nope, unless you got a 99% solid read that the guy has trips.

[Trikflow77]

Any way I can lay this down?

PokerStars Game #3862231679: Tournament #19185353, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/02/04 - 17:01:51 (ET)
Table '19185353 1' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: ferniboy (1650 in chips)
Seat 2: Victorvdb (1490 in chips)
Seat 3: casinoking (1250 in chips)
Seat 4: grainpit (1470 in chips)
Seat 5: SaxManMike (1470 in chips)
Seat 6: Rockymv (1480 in chips)
Seat 7: ITTA (1220 in chips)
Seat 8: Gillooly (1970 in chips)
Seat 9: HK Mancini (1500 in chips)
Rockymv: posts small blind 10
ITTA: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rockymv [As Ah]
Gillooly: calls 20
HK Mancini: folds
ferniboy: calls 20
Victorvdb: calls 20
casinoking: folds
grainpit: folds
SaxManMike: folds
Rockymv: raises 100 to 120
ITTA: folds
Gillooly: calls 100
ferniboy: calls 100
Victorvdb: folds
*** FLOP *** [3c 2h 9h]
Rockymv: bets 360
Gillooly: folds
ferniboy: raises 640 to 1000
Rockymv: ?????

could be a flush draw also.....no you cant muck this on a 9 high board.........

[Fortune 500]

I can't find any laydown here. there's just too much he could have besides trips.

[Blinky]

Very possibly an idjit on a flush draw; set is possible but... it's so early in a SnG (thus no read) I don't lay this sucker down. Either double up or fire up another one.

[vqc]

Very possibly an idjit

gorram idjits.

[Aplomado]

I can't find any laydown here. there's just too much he could have besides trips.

Like what? Even at a table filled with donks I would be suspicious about someone jumping all over a big raise like that.

It seems like I am behind the majoirty of the time when I call that kind of a raise.

I probably couldn't lay it down either, though.

[Fortune 500]

I can't find any laydown here. there's just too much he could have besides trips.

Like what? Even at a table filled with donks I would be suspicious about someone jumping all over a big raise like that.

It seems like I am behind the majoirty of the time when I call that kind of a raise.

I probably couldn't lay it down either, though.

Any PP that figures him for overs... Over pair. Flush Draw... A9....

If you really hit a set on that board,nd you've got one person driving the action, do you go apeshit and raise? Unlikely... the flush sitting out there makes that a possibility though.

I just think you're ahead too often to fold.

[Aplomado]

If you really hit a set on that board,nd you've got one person driving the action, do you go apeshit and raise? Unlikely... the flush sitting out there makes that a possibility though.

With a set and flush draw possibilities, going apeshit is probably rational. However the only plays here I think are smooth-calling (too risky imo) and all-in. The fact that he did neither tells me that he is a donk misplaying a set.

[FlyingSaucy]

Easy fold for me. Since when are overpairs solid gold? Especially early in the tourn. What's the skill level/buy in?

[Rockymv]

This was a 55+5. I've been losing a lot on hands like these.

My thinking was that if a player who I have no reason to believe is a donk limps in MP, calls my raise, and pushes over my flop bet, isn't this exactly what a good player with a set looks like?

However, I guess it's also what an idiot limp/calling a9 looks like.

[Aplomado]

However, I guess it's also what an idiot limp/calling a9 looks like.

I really find it hard to believe that even an idiot is pushing over a $360 bet with that kind of hand.

[Rockymv]

However, I guess it's also what an idiot limp/calling a9 looks like.

I really find it hard to believe that even an idiot is pushing over a $360 bet with that kind of hand.

Even at the 60's I see this stuff all the time. A read sure would help huh?

[A10Chief]

I can't find a fold here because at the level I playthis is almost always A9 or a flush draw. At the 55's, I can see folding this since it's early if you feel that your edge over the field is big enough. I'd probably still call and then berate the fish for calling the PFR with the small PP.

[WildBobAA]

Harrington makes this same call in HoH 1

[Aplomado]

Harrington makes this same call in HoH 1

Do you really just call? He didn't go all-in mind you.

[WildBobAA]

Ok, obviously you're going all in here and not calling but it was a similar situation for all your chips.

[mcatdog]

I really find it hard to believe that even an idiot is pushing over a $360 bet with that kind of hand.

What games are you playing in? I've gotten put all-in by top pair numerous times on a board like this.

[FlyingSaucy]

Even at the 60's I see this stuff all the time. A read sure would help huh?

That's interesting because I play at the 20's and don't see this kind of stuff too much. At least, not often enough to justify risking your stack that early. Yea, a read would help, but in its absence you have to assume you are playing with good players.
I think if you call you are going to be facing ferniboy's pocket 9's. Pocket 2's and 3's probably would have folded preflop.

[gabe]

of course you can find a fold if the guy is a 60s regular who you know would only make this move with a set. you cant fold against an unknown though.

[biondino]

This looks like a set to me, a set who's scared of the flush draw. It's pretty much exactly how I'd play with one.

[Rockymv]

of course you can find a fold if the guy is a 60s regular who you know would only make this move with a set. you cant fold against an unknown though.

This really gets at my question: which side do you err on against an unknown? In this case, I didn't recognize the name, so I made the call. Hopefully I'll be able to lay it down against a known solid player.

[STIdrivr]

what did he have 99?

[Rockymv]

33.

I just lost another similar hand. In this case, unknown opp. called the preflop raise from the button, called the flop, and then pushed the turn. Is this easier to lay down? No flushes or straights on the board.

[Aplomado]

of course you can find a fold if the guy is a 60s regular who you know would only make this move with a set. you cant fold against an unknown though.

I like to be the aggressor in any situation, especially when I have an overpair on a low flop. When someone raises over the top of a healthy bet, I really am not comfortable risking all of my chips in common set situations just because it *might* be a donk with top pair.

I used to have the same strategy of calling these all-ins, but it just seems like more times then not I am hopelessly behind when I do so. Just my two cents.

[FlyingSaucy]

I agree with Aplomado. When in doubt, don't call with your whole stack early in a sng, holding a mere overpair in a preflop limp/raise/call situation like that. Later in the game, you take that risk, but not early. Based on preflop play, there's no way he's got a slightly lower overpair, or is betting like that with tptk.

The reason why you play mid/low pps early in the game like this is exactly for this situation. A good chance to hit your set and double up when someone can't let go of his overpair.

[gabe]

of course you can find a fold if the guy is a 60s regular who you know would only make this move with a set. you cant fold against an unknown though.

This really gets at my question: which side do you err on against an unknown? In this case, I didn't recognize the name, so I made the call. Hopefully I'll be able to lay it down against a known solid player.

against unknown you get the chips in!

[Rondavu]

Even at the 60's I see this stuff all the time. A read sure would help huh?

That's interesting because I play at the 20's and don't see this kind of stuff too much. At least, not often enough to justify risking your stack that early.

This kind of stuff happens ALL THE TIME at the 20's. Players at that level suck, and it's delicious.

[zenbitz]

nb by villian. Make a note. He put you on an overpair and knew he'd get a call.

[FlyingSaucy]

Even at the 60's I see this stuff all the time. A read sure would help huh?

That's interesting because I play at the 20's and don't see this kind of stuff too much. At least, not often enough to justify risking your stack that early.

This kind of stuff happens ALL THE TIME at the 20's. Players at that level suck, and it's delicious.

Saying "ALL THE TIME" about anything is obvious hyperbole. I am certain that I do not see this more than 50% of the time in similar situations at the $20s at UB.

To beat a dead horse. Say even 50% of the time you are facing a donk with TPTK or a flush draw and 50% it is a made set.

I'm going to roughly fudge some numbers here. You have TPTK and flush draws owned - guessing at least 3:1. So you are doubling up 75% of that 50% of the time.
Otherwise say he's got a made set. You need runners to win that pot. In this case, I guess you double up maybe 10% of the time you call, and bust the other 90%.

So you double up around (38% + 5% =) 43% of the time and bust the other 57%. Now even doubling up doesn't guarantee you ITM. Busting gives you a guaranteed payout of $0.

And in my experience you can't assume people are donks - they have to prove themselves.

[Rockymv]

Even at the 60's I see this stuff all the time. A read sure would help huh?

That's interesting because I play at the 20's and don't see this kind of stuff too much. At least, not often enough to justify risking your stack that early.

This kind of stuff happens ALL THE TIME at the 20's. Players at that level suck, and it's delicious.

Saying "ALL THE TIME" about anything is obvious hyperbole. I am certain that I do not see this more than 50% of the time in similar situations at the $20s at UB.

To beat a dead horse. Say even 50% of the time you are facing a donk with TPTK or a flush draw and 50% it is a made set.

I'm going to roughly fudge some numbers here. You have TPTK and flush draws owned - guessing at least 3:1. So you are doubling up 75% of that 50% of the time.
Otherwise say he's got a made set. You need runners to win that pot. In this case, I guess you double up maybe 10% of the time you call, and bust the other 90%.

So you double up around (38% + 5% =) 43% of the time and bust the other 57%. Now even doubling up doesn't guarantee you ITM. Busting gives you a guaranteed payout of $0.

And in my experience you can't assume people are donks - they have to prove themselves.

Don't you have to take into account the fact that flopping a set is a much more unlikely occurrence? Saying there's a 50% chance opp. has a set when he pushes here suggests that there's an small number of total instances where someone actually pushes over my bet. IMO that's just not the case. I think you're discounting the number of donks that push there with a pair.

[FlyingSaucy]

Don't you have to take into account the fact that flopping a set is a much more unlikely occurrence? Saying there's a 50% chance opp. has a set when he pushes here suggests that there's an small number of total instances where someone actually pushes over my bet. IMO that's just not the case. I think you're discounting the number of donks that push there with a pair.

No, you don't take into account that flopping a set is more unlikely. You make an estimation based on their preflop and flop betting of what types of hands they will have. I gave a rough estimate of 50/50 on if they have a set or if they have something else - figuring it's a tossup of whether or not they are a donk - at the point that you need to make your decsion of calling off your stack.

[Rockymv]

No, you don't take into account that flopping a set is more unlikely. You make an estimation based on their preflop and flop betting of what types of hands they will have. I gave a rough estimate of 50/50 on if they have a set or if they have something else - figuring it's a tossup of whether or not they are a donk - at the point that you need to make your decsion of calling off your stack.

I guess what I meant is that there's no possible way to ground your 50/50 estimate, so I'm not sure the conclusion is that helpful.

[Rondavu]

Let's put it this way, if you have Ah Ax on this flop --> [3c 2h 9h] at the 20 level, and fold after being raised, then you are a complete nit who shouldn't be playing poker. Think of the hands you're ahead of that could be raising here at this level and higher.....

89-T9-J9-Q9-K9-A9-TT-JJ-QQ-KK--Unlikely but possible--->45-A4-A5-KQ-AK-AJ-AT (yes I'm serious), not to mention any flush draw that feels you wiffed (or just don't care either way), which is another 10+ hands. You also have to take into account people's tendancy to play sets slower, which decreases the chance of set based on betting patterns for at least half the time a set is flopped (rough guestimate). FlyingSaucy, I don't know what you're trying to convince anyone to do here, but I hope it doesn't involve EVER folding AA against this board at $20-$55. It's just incorrect. Throw that math out the window. It has no basis in reality. You're playing against bad unpredictable players on a flush coordinating rag board with the highest overpair possible, one of which is a heart. ALL IN. Only the most spectacularly tight read would ever stop me. Reads don't normally come that tight against a constant rotation of unknowns, especially in a tournament.

That's no hyperbole

[Rockymv]

I wouldn't go that far...I agree with gabe that if this is a regular multitabler it becomes way more likely that he has the set, and is probably a fold. Against someone I'm not familiar with, however, I agree that it's hard to justify folding.

[mcatdog]

If you're going to put an unknown player on a set, why are you even playing poker? If all of your opponents are that good, quit because you won't beat the rake.

[boost]

However, I guess it's also what an idiot limp/calling a9 looks like.

I really find it hard to believe that even an idiot is pushing over a $360 bet with that kind of hand.

find it as hard to believe as you want, but it happens all day. You CANNOT fold this, Ive seen this with Q9 at the 55's ... These guys are 'tards, seriously. If you have no reads you call, if you call and lose, take some notes and move on.

[FlyingSaucy]

Fascinating. I must have a lot to learn. So when exactly will you ever lay down AA post flop to a 3xpot all-in reraise? When there are 4 to a flush on the turn and you don't have it?

[boost]

dude, WHAT ARE YOU AFRAID OF ON THIS FLOP?

[3c 2h 9h]


The guy can have X9, 66-88+TT-JJ, all hands that could be limp called by people in these 55$ turbos. I just thikn you guys are giving too much credit to the average retard that plays poker, even at this level. With reads, we might look to do something different here.

[14urmoney]

I had a hand like this the other day it was in the party poker steps. 3rd step first hand. Flop came out low with 10 high and no draws. So I bet my AA and I got reraised so then I went all in. Dude had King 10. and of course he got the king on the turn. And I have to start over because I got exited first. SO next time I am going to tell the person I got AA if you got me beat call me, other wise fold your not getting the odds to call with a pair of tens. If the dude calls then he is just an ass.

[badandy519]

I had a hand like this the other day it was in the party poker steps. 3rd step first hand. Flop came out low with 10 high and no draws. So I bet my AA and I got reraised so then I went all in. Dude had King 10. and of course he got the king on the turn. And I have to start over because I got exited first. SO next time I am going to tell the person I got AA if you got me beat call me, other wise fold your not getting the odds to call with a pair of tens. If the dude calls then he is just an ass.

Yeah, you definitely want the guy who's drawing to 5 outs to fold....

[14urmoney]

I do on the steps because if I loose first I have to go back 3 levels where is If lost 7th I only I have to back one level. It is not a regular sit & go loosing first is very costly

[vqc]

I do on the steps because if I loose first I have to go back 3 levels where is If lost 7th I only I have to back one level. It is not a regular sit & go loosing first is very costly

uh wat?
do u kno wat EV is?

why bother playing hands at all then until someone gets knocked out?

[Trikflow77]

I had a hand like this the other day it was in the party poker steps. 3rd step first hand. Flop came out low with 10 high and no draws. So I bet my AA and I got reraised so then I went all in. Dude had King 10. and of course he got the king on the turn. And I have to start over because I got exited first. SO next time I am going to tell the person I got AA if you got me beat call me, other wise fold your not getting the odds to call with a pair of tens. If the dude calls then he is just an ass.

This is also cheating BTW

[14urmoney]

I don't know but I think one could make case and say don't play a hand until you get past the number of people that sends you back two levels. Or at least an all-in strategy pre flop. like raise AA, KK all in preflop any other pair or big hand limp in and only call or raise with 2 pair or better. Then when you get past that number play aggressive. The only question is how short stacked you would be and how much this sets you back from making the final 2. I have seen people use all in strategies and be successful. Some guy named PP_Bott_421 does it at 50$ sit & goes at party and he wins alot. His strategy is All in or fold until you get 3 people

[dj newman]

With this post Rocky, you have made me stumble across my biggest problem....I tend to think solid player until proven fish, when I should be thinking fish until proven solid...and after all the reasoning back and forth in here, I now get it....this will help a lot...with all facets of the game playing against unknowns.