99 on the bubble

[SteveO]

11 players left on 2 tables. 9 places paid. Table is 6 handed.
Player A UTG has T14000
Player B Chip Leader has T110000
Hero has T13000
Blinds 3000/1500 no antes

Been playing shorthanded for a while lots of blind steals. Hero had average stack but cold cards and blinds have taken toll.
Player A min raised UTG. Chip leader quickly moves AI for 109,000. (Chip leader had been recently putting chips to good use and pressuring the blinds and table) Hero had folded blinds to raise 2 in a row before this hand because BB hands did not stand a chance.
Hero has 99.

Do you fold 99 and hope UTG calls and gets eliminated and try to crawl into money, or do you move in?

READ: UTG limp is a little scary, could be the dreaded AA/KK limp. Chip leader is no worry. He's got plenty to splash around, I figured him for 2 overs or a baby pair.

I took the full time bank considering this hand. I figured I would take my chance and race the overs of Chip Leader. If I push UTG would lay down anything but AA/KK. If UTG called I could tripple up and get back a decent chip position to contest for the tourny at the final table.

Do you take the risk for a tripple up, or do you fold and pray? Keep in mind we are short handed and blinds are eating your stack at a furious clip.

[sykotik489]

This, to me, is not a question about this specific hand, but what your goals are. If you play tournaments to win (I do) then you always call here without reason to believe someone has an overpair.

If you're happy just making the money, then you can justify a fold, but you're going to have to take a stand more than likely before the money and this may be your best shot.

I call everytime.

Case in point:

3 handed

I have 10k
SB has 9k
BB has 1200 or so

I get 10 10, raise 3x, SB pushes, BB folds.

Now I could have folded here and waited for the BB to go out and then played the SB for 1st, but I chose to call and race him (I had a good read and was 90% he didn't have an overpair) to try to win the whole thing right there, more or less. His AK caught a K on the river and I was gone shortly thereafter. I don't regret the decision and I make that call every time.

[JeffreyGB]

What kind of a read do you have on UTG and the chip leader? A fold from the UTG player is crazy here, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. What's his range for an UTG min-raise? How aggro has the chip leader been?

If both players could be on a wide range, I call. If UTG has been tight, I fold. Five-handed, I doubt I fold any more frequently because of the chipleader's play.

[SteveO]

Chip leader is abusing the table with his stack as he should.

I'm scared of UTG b/c of the min raise UTG but so short handed and blinds to big, he was committing himself if he raised more PF. Otherwise, UTG was not out of line and not particularly trickey.

Also, I'm considering the fact that 99 is not going to do well 3 handed with what I presume to be 3 or 4 over cards. Best case they are both on an A and holding each other's outs.

[JeffreyGB]

Those are the same considerations I was having. It's hard to find a fold so short-handed. At a full table, I believe I would do so, but here...I think I'm ok with either play. If you have an average stack, I might lean toward the fold, just because I personally lean toward getting ITM over not when in marginal situations.

[drmcboy]

UTG will fold all but AA/KK - What? He isn't folding. If he's a total donk, you should mention that. otherwise you assume three way here.

I agree that you can make much of a mistake either way. It's not likely you're in better shape than running against lower pair and two overs, but obvouisly getting 3/1 on your money you'll take that at this stage. 3 overs probably OK too, you'll be sad if 4 but that seems unlucky to me. Better chance you get shown a bigger pair than a smaller one.

If you think there is a chance you can pick up the blinds before you pay them again it might make me lean more to a fold.

[SteveO]

I think an aware player in UTG spot would have to lay down anything but AA/KK. He projected strength by raising then he' s facing an AI and a call, and aware player would fold anything but a MONSTER under these conditions. He could fold and hope I get wiped out by Chip Leader but would not have any business in the hand after the action that followed his raise.

[chardrian]

I think an aware player in UTG spot would have to lay down anything but AA/KK. He projected strength by raising then he' s facing an AI and a call, and aware player would fold anything but a MONSTER under these conditions. He could fold and hope I get wiped out by Chip Leader but would not have any business in the hand after the action that followed his raise.

That's a crock.

UTG only has 8k left after the minraise. Yes the chip leader has pushed but as you say he is splashing aroung. Your call could mean anything from low pockets to AJ+. UTG is getting way too much value with basically any hand to fold. Especially considering that a fold means he will be left with only 8k and will have absolutely no fold equity, he has to call there.