Call all-in from button?

[Rockymv]

PokerStars Game #4026762754: Tournament #20012836, Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (200/400) - 2006/02/19 - 13:54:08 (ET)
Table '20012836 1' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 3: dammitman37 (6090 in chips)
Seat 5: Badgerpoo (1800 in chips)
Seat 7: mll10577 (3960 in chips)
Seat 9: Rockymv (1650 in chips)
dammitman37: posts the ante 25
Badgerpoo: posts the ante 25
mll10577: posts the ante 25
Rockymv: posts the ante 25
dammitman37: posts small blind 200
Badgerpoo: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Rockymv [As Kd]
mll10577: raises 2000 to 2400
Rockymv: ?????????

Any reads at all?

Normally, unless a read tells me otherwise, I'd call in this situation and gamble it up with your dwindling chip stack.

[tcpj4]

Ridiculously easy call. Your M is a shade over two, the only things that dominate you are AA and KK. Even if opp showed me QQ, I gladly take the coinflip to double up and get back in it.

What would be a reason for folding? Hoping the other shortstack goes out first? Such a weak play..

[Scuba Chuck]

Why are you asking? Hopefully you realize that you are giving up a tremendous amount of EV (against an expected range) by NOT calling. Calling here makes you money in the long run.

[Aplomado]

Instacall.

[Rockymv]

Run the numbers. You might be surprised.

With no reads what range do you put him on?

EDIT: Of course I called, but when I went back to it later, it turned out to be very marginal. It's definitely not "ridiculously easy" and I wouldn't be giving up "huge amounts of EV" by folding.

[gabe]

it might be closer to fold if you weren't the shortest, but you are.

[Rockymv]

If his range is 22+,A6+,KJs+, then a call is -0.2%. He had been average...nothing out of the ordinary. With 10BB, is there any reason to believe he'd be pushing a wider range than this UTG?

[Aplomado]

If his range is 22+,A6+,KJs+, then a call is -0.2%. He had been average...nothing out of the ordinary. With 10BB, is there any reason to believe he'd be pushing a wider range than this UTG?

My bad, for some reason I thought he had pushed all in, which would put him at only 6xBB.

Still with your stack at a mere 4xBB and a hand like AK, I really can't imagine not pushing in this situation.

[Rockymv]

So you think he's raising 2000 with a wider range than that? Because if he's not, I'm losing money by calling.

[Aplomado]

So you think he's raising 2000 with a wider range than that? Because if he's not, I'm losing money by calling.

I would actually put him on a smaller range, which would help you since I think his move eliminates low pocket pairs and anything King-high, which are hands you don't dominate. Regardless, with 4xBB, a flip isn't really a bad thing.

[bantam222]

call

[Rockymv]

So you think he's raising 2000 with a wider range than that? Because if he's not, I'm losing money by calling.

I would actually put him on a smaller range, which would help you since I think his move eliminates low pocket pairs and anything King-high, which are hands you don't dominate. Regardless, with 4xBB, a flip isn't really a bad thing.

I doubt he'd be raising KJ 2000 if he's not doing the same with 44.

If his range is 66+,A8+,A8o+,KQs+, it's still -0.3%.

[Aplomado]

I doubt he'd be raising KJ 2000 if he's not doing the same with 44.

I agree, which is my point. I said "king high and low pocket pairs."

If his range is 66+,A8+,A8o+,KQs+, it's still -0.3%.

Well even if it is a losing play in the long run, frankly it's a losing situation to be 4xBB period. I'd be happy for a coinflip in such a situation. I just can't imagine folding AK here.

Also, if you don't like the play, why did you call?

[Rockymv]

I called because the idea of folding AK with 4xBB seemed absurd to me at the time. But the numbers don't lie. If he doesn't have a looser range than the one above, then you're losing money when you call here.

[Aplomado]

Generally, you're losing money when you get into a situation like 4xBB anyway, aren't you?

I mean, what are you going to do, fold with one hand to go until the big blind takes a quarter of your stack again? You're out of time.

[Rockymv]

Pushing almost any two on the next hand would be more solidly +EV than calling here.

[TLR]

I would call

[Aplomado]

Pushing almost any two on the next hand would be more solidly +EV than calling here.

I really can't see that. At worst you're a flip here, unless you're up against KK and AA which really isn't worth considering in this situation. With a stack as small as yours, do you think you're going to get a better situation? You might win a blind or two, but eventually you'll get called and I don't think you'll be fortunate enough to race with AK again.

Beggars can't be choosy.

[aislephive]

Calling here is clearly the correct play. Doubling up puts you second in chips and gives you massive equity for first or second place. Now if you fold here, A) You may not get in a better situation, B) You sneak into the money but go out third. But if you call and win you're extremely likely to cash, you have a very good shot at second place, and you also give yourself the maximum chance to make first place, where the real money is in SNGs.

With all that said, calling here is simple. If he doesn't have a pair, you're a big favorite, especially if he has Ax or Kx, which is most likely the case. You're a slight dog to pairs up to QQ, and it's very unlikely he would make such a massive raise with AA or KK.

What it comes down to is the bubble obviously. Your argument is that you can find a better spot by pushing with any two and having fold equity, all while sneaking into the money as a shortstack, all but guaranteeing yourself a third place finish at best and you could easily bubble. Now if you call you will be ahead most of the time, and when you are ahead you are going to be a big favorite, and when behind you will only be a small underdog. And winning the hand essentially guarantees a cash, and also gives you a great shot at second place (you winning that hand puts you second in chips) and also gives you a shot at first place. This is a clear call in my book.

[gabe]

TO ALL THOSE SAYING EASY CALL:

rocky is trying to teach you something here.

[drmcboy]

I couldn't fold, but the numbers are an eye opener, nice post.

On one hand, your range seems too wide, because he has commited to the pot. OTOH, knowing that he can really make this play with any two since big stack should know he won't make this play without a hand.

[thnwkd]

Calling here is clearly the correct play. Doubling up puts you second in chips and gives you massive equity for first or second place. Now if you fold here, A) You may not get in a better situation, B) You sneak into the money but go out third. But if you call and win you're extremely likely to cash, you have a very good shot at second place, and you also give yourself the maximum chance to make first place, where the real money is in SNGs.

With all that said, calling here is simple. If he doesn't have a pair, you're a big favorite, especially if he has Ax or Kx, which is most likely the case. You're a slight dog to pairs up to QQ, and it's very unlikely he would make such a massive raise with AA or KK.

What it comes down to is the bubble obviously. Your argument is that you can find a better spot by pushing with any two and having fold equity, all while sneaking into the money as a shortstack, all but guaranteeing yourself a third place finish at best and you could easily bubble. Now if you call you will be ahead most of the time, and when you are ahead you are going to be a big favorite, and when behind you will only be a small underdog. And winning the hand essentially guarantees a cash, and also gives you a great shot at second place (you winning that hand puts you second in chips) and also gives you a shot at first place. This is a clear call in my book.

I call all day every day.

[GatorJH]

+EV or -EV -Are there spots in the tournament where EV no longer becomes the main decision factor?

Below are the actual and relative M's of the remaining players. Don't forget that the concept of using an M to calculate your strength is estimating how long you can "sit there" before the blinds and antes erode your stack to nothing. However, your M is based on a full table and since there is only 4 people left your relative M is actually lower than that. In this case I took the actual M and multiplied it times .44 (4/9) to get the relative M. This is important to remember because your true M means you can't sit as long as you would be able to on a full table as the blinds get to you much faster and in much fewer hands. For example if I have an M at 4 on a full table of 9 I could play 36 hands before I run out of chips. At a table of 4 that number is now reduced to 16.

dammitman37 - actual - 8.7; relative 3.8
Badgerpoo - actual - 2.6; relative 1.1
mll10577 - actual - 5.6; relative 2.5
Rockymv - actual 2.4; relative 1.0

At this point, with EVERYONE'S M being low, moves will be made with much more speculative hands (any K for example), which makes it more difficult to predict the actual EV of a starting hand.

That is why I think this is a must call type of hand. You just don't have that many hands left to wait for a better one.

[pgil]

I think this is another situation where if your calculator tells you to fold, then there is something wrong with your calculator. either your range is too wide or your calculator has been soaking in water. there is 700 in dead money sitting in the pot, you have a hand that dominates any A and any K, both of which should be making a stab at this pot. you are ridiculously shortstacked compared to the blinds, and to 2 out of the other 3 at your table. I think with the big stack yet to act, and there being 2 very short stacks, you need to considerably tighten the range for this player. he is basically putting his tournament on the line when he has guaranteed at least a money finish, with a good shot at 2nd place. do you really think he's doing this w/ 33? put him on a range like: 99+, KQ+, A9+, and you will come out much further ahead. if he was the massive chip leader then maybe you could loosen his range, but as it stands you have him doing this with way too many hands.

[pgil]

the discussion over this hand really intrigues me, so I thought about it some more. this is a large bet. 6xBB. seems too large for your run of the mill steal attempt. it also tends to rule out AA and KK (maybe QQ) because this is an action killing raise. this bet looks to me like it was designed to do two things. keep the big stack out of the hand, while forcing the desperate shorter stack in the BB to call AI with a less than ideal holding. if we assume that this is the purpose of the raise, then this changes the range. i personally would do this with something like 77-JJ (maybe as low as 66, but thats getting a little dodgy), A6+ (we are 4 handed after all, and BB may call with a mid K, making any A a favourite), and K9+ (maybe QJs, but I usually stay away from the Q high when doing this as many will play any K in this situation, putting my Q in a bad spot). I think if you plug in your range for taking a stab at a desperate short stack, you will find that AK comes out far enough ahead to make this a ridiculously easy call.

[drmcboy]

reading the post is +EV.

[Rockymv]

I doubt I'd ever be aware enough to fold this in the heat of the moment, I just thought it was really instructive as to the importance of the cards you have relative to things like stack sizes and who's on the blinds.

[GatorJH]

TO ALL THOSE SAYING EASY CALL:

rocky is trying to teach you something here.

What is that? Did we learn something? Even after all of the posts I STILL think this is an easy call in this particular situation.

[Aplomado]

I doubt I'd ever be aware enough to fold this in the heat of the moment, I just thought it was really instructive as to the importance of the cards you have relative to things like stack sizes and who's on the blinds.

Yeah I think this has been an enlightening conversation, but it doesn't really seem like the fact that's it's barely -EV comes into play since 4xBB 4-handed is a -EV situation. AK in this spot is probably the least -EV move, which is why I think it's a standard call.

[shooter]

This thread is very interesting to me. I recall a thread where Scuba said that he had come to the agreement with the creator of his poker tool that it was always wrong to call in a -EV situation, and that it was always wrong not to call in a situation where it was +0.5%EV.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...221&highlight=

But, I think that this may be a situation where one must call in a -EV situation, because I think that pushing any two on the next hand is actually even more -EV. Again, I didn't do the math here, but the situation reminds me of another similar scenario discussed in this forum (might have been the same thread) where it was determined that in that situation, pushing any two from UTG in the dark with three to follow was also -EV. I don't think it is +EV to wait for the blinds to come around again, so I have to think that this is a definite call regardless of being slightly -EV.

[GatorJH]

This thread is very interesting to me. I recall a thread where Scuba said that he had come to the agreement with the creator of his poker tool that it was always wrong to call in a -EV situation, and that it was always wrong not to call in a situation where it was +0.5%EV.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...221&highlight=

But, I think that this may be a situation where one must call in a -EV situation, because I think that pushing any two on the next hand is actually even more -EV. Again, I didn't do the math here, but the situation reminds me of another similar scenario discussed in this forum (might have been the same thread) where it was determined that in that situation, pushing any two from UTG in the dark with three to follow was also -EV. I don't think it is +EV to wait for the blinds to come around again, so I have to think that this is a definite call regardless of being slightly -EV.

That thought process is where I was headed in my earlier post where I asked the question of when + or - EV no longer is the overriding factor in determining whether to call or not.

In this case can Rocky afford to wait for a situation that is +EV when he only has 16 hands coming up to chose from?

[Sprayed]

I'm calling all day. Forget the numbers. The decision is based on your stack and how long you can wait. I think this a great opportunity for you.

[Rockymv]

I'm calling all day. Forget the numbers. The decision is based on your stack and how long you can wait. I think this a great opportunity for you.

A lot of you are saying this, but the "numbers" takes these things into account.

[mcatdog]

A lot of you are saying this, but the "numbers" takes these things into account.

Rocky, a lot of people on FTR hate thinking about their decisions in terms of math. That attitude makes no sense whatsoever to me.

[Aplomado]

Granted, but the point is that it just isn't likely that your numbers are going to improve by waiting for another hand. If you want to wait for a hand you can push and be favored with 2-1 odds or something, good luck with that stack.

[Rockymv]

Assuming the raiser won the blinds on this hand, the next hand looks like this:

If the button and SB have calling ranges of 66+, AT+ and the BB has a range of 44+, A7s+, A80, KJs+, then a push is +EV with any two cards.

Loosen up the BB's range to 22+, A2+, KJ+ and I should still be pushing the top 50% of hands. So even if the BB is loose I still have a 50/50 chance of finding a +EV push on the next hand.

[dj newman]

I am stunned...what is the cut-off for a hand to call in this situation then....JJ+ or lower?

[Aplomado]

Interesting. I'm having trouble believing it, but interesting.

[dj newman]

Maybe I should just buy the damn calculator....

[Rockymv]

Maybe I should just buy the damn calculator....

You should. I've become waaaaaaaayy better since I got it. In addition to being able to review your play, it forces you to think critically about other factors in the game, such as blinds, stack sizes, and position.

As for the hand in the OP, assuming the ranges we were using you'd probably need JJ+ to call comfortably.

[konahead]

so Rocky - where can I get this calculator that you're using?

[mcatdog]

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/

[Alibi]

Very nice thread.

[K2 the ArmA]

He showed JJ ya?

[gabe]

add this to that thread???