Thoughts on this call (PS 50+5 regular SNG)

[mcatdog]

I like to gamble in these situations. Comments?

BTW the blinds are both pretty tight so I've been stealing their blinds a lot.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t4900)
SB (t3725)
BB (t2195)
UTG (t2680)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 9.
1 fold, Hero raises to t600, 1 fold, BB calls t400.

Flop: (t1300) J, 8, T (2 players)
BB bets t1595 (All-In), Hero calls t1595.

[Aplomado]

I'm not wild about calling off a third of your stack when you're probably behind.

[mcatdog]

I'm not wild about calling off a third of your stack when you're probably behind.

What range of hands do you put him on and what are my pot odds against that range?

[Aplomado]

With only 600 invested, you definitely aren't committed. I'd put him on either a pocket pair or A/K high, and he paired his kicker. All you have is Ace high with a straight draw, not worth calling that big of a bet.

Do you really think he's pushing here with a high card? Because that's all you beat right now.

[aleksandr]

You got 11 outs best case scenario. Even so if we put you on a solid 8 outs, 2.6k in the pot, 1.6k to call for a final 42k pot. 42/16 = 2.65, so 1.65:1, a clear fold. Only if you're sure you have 11 outs I think do you make this call, and you're not sure.

[vqc]

I like to gamble in these situations. Comments?

BTW the blinds are both pretty tight so I've been stealing their blinds a lot.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Hero (t4900)
SB (t3725)
BB (t2195)
UTG (t2680)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, 9.
1 fold, Hero raises to t600, 1 fold, BB calls t400.

Flop: (t1300) J, 8, T (2 players)
BB bets t1595 (All-In), Hero calls t1595.

are u banking on the fact that hes stop and going?
becuase if u are then u are potentially wayyy farther ahead then everyone gives u credit for.

[Aplomado]

are u banking on the fact that hes stop and going?
becuase if u are then u are potentially wayyy farther ahead then everyone gives u credit for.

Stop n go is a very uncommon move for tight players, esp at 10xBB

[daluchy]

are u banking on the fact that hes stop and going?
becuase if u are then u are potentially wayyy farther ahead then everyone gives u credit for.

Stop n go is a very uncommon move for tight players, esp at 10xBB

Not so much for a tight player who's fed up with all the blind steals, hehe.

a stop and go with any 2 is the first thing that came to mind here. id expect any two/low pair/a draw here. i dont quite feel like finding the equity of your hand vs these hands but it sounds like a fun gamble

[Aplomado]

Not so much for a tight player who's fed up with all the blind steals, hehe.

I'd say you give them too much credit. 9 times out of 10 this is not a stop n go, I think.

[mcatdog]

With only 600 invested, you definitely aren't committed. I'd put him on either a pocket pair or A/K high, and he paired his kicker.

That sounds about right. I would add a flush draw to his range, or a nine, and also a small chance that he's doing a stop-and-go and has garbage (which I agree with you, isn't very likely, but it's not impossible). I think if he really liked his hand, he would have let me bet for him, so a hand like JT highly unlikely. He went all-in because he has a medium-strength hand, and is probably scared of all the draws on the board, and he wants me to fold.

My thoughts are, first of all, even if I lose the hand, I'll still be tied for third place and have plenty of chips, so I can afford to call this bet if I'm getting the right pot odds. If I had fewer chips and losing the hand would cripple me, I would fold.

I'm calling 1595 to win 2895, so I need to win 35% of the time for the call to be profitable. I'd like to win a little bit more often than that because according to the SNG payout structure, the chips I'm risking are more valuable than the chips I'd be winning. I didn't have time to do ICM calculations during the SNG, but I decided that if I was good 40% of the time, a call was mandatory.

Let's look at how my hand fares against some of the hands in his range.

A small pair. I'm actually ahead right now, and folding would be a terrible mistake.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Jd Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5c 5h 450 45.45 516 52.12 24 2.42 0.467
As 9c 516 52.12 450 45.45 24 2.42 0.533

A jack. Against KJ I should call, against QJ it's a marginal fold, and against AJ it's a clear fold. Of these I think AJ is the least likely because I think he would have gone all-in preflop, plus one of the aces is in my hand.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Jd Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jc Kh 597 60.30 381 38.48 12 1.21 0.609
As 9c 381 38.48 597 60.30 12 1.21 0.391

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Jd Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jc Qh 643 64.95 338 34.14 9 0.91 0.654
As 9c 338 34.14 643 64.95 9 0.91 0.346

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Jd Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Jc Ah 663 66.97 287 28.99 40 4.04 0.690
As 9c 287 28.99 663 66.97 40 4.04 0.310

And a couple of other hands he could have. I'm getting the right odds against all of them, except AT which I think is not that likely a hand for him to have, for the reasons I stated above.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Jd Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah 8h 546 55.15 383 38.69 61 6.16 0.582
As 9c 383 38.69 546 55.15 61 6.16 0.418

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Jd Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Qd 566 57.17 424 42.83 0 0.00 0.572
As 9c 424 42.83 566 57.17 0 0.00 0.428

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Jd Td
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Ah 657 66.36 287 28.99 46 4.65 0.687
As 9c 287 28.99 657 66.36 46 4.65 0.313

As you can see I have enough outs that I'm never making that big of a mistake by calling, but there are a lot of hands in his range where I'm making a huge mistake by folding. Plus there's the chance that he's doing a stop-and-go with shit, in which case I have him owned 3:1.


Basically this hand illustrates my philosophy that if you have a pretty good hand with some outs, and you're getting laid good odds, you should be looking for reasons to call, not reasons to fold. Gamb00L! Gamb00L! Gamb00L!

[gabe]

the pot isn't big enough to call here

[mcatdog]

the pot isn't big enough to call here

Are you saying that I don't have the right pot odds to call, or are you saying that if the pot is small I can afford to make laydowns even if I'm getting the right pot odds to call? If you're saying the second thing, I don't agree, at all.

I might have been too optimistic about his range though. If he usually has a jack here, I should fold.

[Rockymv]

I think he usually has KJ, QJ, A10, K10 or flush draw here, maybe a medium pocket pair. And a small amount of the time he is stop n going with nothing.

Most of the time I think it's a weak top or second pair that's scared of a drawy board.

Against this range, ATs,KJs-KTs,QJs,ATo,KJo-KTo,QJo, you're 35.6%. So it just depends how likely you think it is that he's doing this with a medium pocket pair or nothing. I fold to be on the safe side.

[Trikflow77]

the only reason i would even consider making this call is it is likely that you are ahead of a draw with the texture of this board, and if your not, you have outs. I would like the pot to be a little bigger to call with A high here though.