Little help here please

[Rabid Dog]

What do you think he has here? I'm thinking he had QQ and was just hanging around because there was nothing on the board that could beat his QQ. Then when the Q hit on the river he bet it hard. I guess he could have a flush. But I would think if he was going to chase a flush after calling a $2 bet on the flop that he would have raised the $2 turn bet if he hit the flush. Am I wrong?



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB ($49.95)
UTG ($10.25)
UTG+1 ($8.75)
MP1 ($10)
Hero ($33.65)
MP3 ($36.70)
CO ($20.05)
Button ($16.25)
SB ($32.10)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, MP3 calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds.

Flop: ($2.60) 9, 7, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $2, MP3 calls $2, CO folds.

Turn: ($6.60) T (2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP3 calls $2.

River: ($10.60) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $2, MP3 raises to $10, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $22.60

[AHiltz]

Your turn and river bets are the same as your flop bet. He might think that you are weak and doing stupid bets.

Do you have any pokertracker stats on this guy? My first guess is a nut camper who flopped his set and is trying to get some value on the river.

[Renton]

Can't help you post flop. On the one hand your fold was a little weak/tight, but you can't help but worry about the straight and flush draws, which I am more worried about than QQ.

The short answer advice is raise bigger preflop. My standard opener OOP at 25nl is at least $1. I would have called your preflop raise in position in this hand with T8c all day long.

I don't think putting him on QQ was reason enough to fold. I would have check/called the river, essentially giving up after the bet was called with the SF card hit on the turn.

[Fnord]

Unless I know my opponent is just terrible, I would check this turn.

[Rondavu]

Unless I know my opponent is just terrible, I would check this turn.

Do you think it's fair to say you only check this turn against mid skill players? I wouldn't check this turn at anything past 200NL. It's just an invitation to steal IMO. This becomes very apparent at levels as high as 1000NL, where the green light comes on every time you show weakness. This becomes especially true when you price out a strong opponent (since they probably wouldn't chase a flush badly) on the flop, and you're really just repricing them out to draw to the 4 flush.

[Irisheyes]

Unless I know my opponent is just terrible, I would check this turn.

Whats your general aim when you do this?

[Rabid Dog]

Unless I know my opponent is just terrible, I would check this turn.

So your saying give him a free card to potentially hit a straight or a flush? Yeah if a club comes then I have a flush to and only one card would beat my flush. Unless he pulled a straight flush. I just thought in this situation you had to bet to make him pay for his next card. With him calling the turn, he might have had me beat there maybe.

[Rabid Dog]

Your turn and river bets are the same as your flop bet. He might think that you are weak and doing stupid bets.

At 25nl does this show weakness?

Do you have any pokertracker stats on this guy? My first guess is a nut camper who flopped his set and is trying to get some value on the river.

No, I dont have pokertracker at this moment. Sorry.

[Fnord]

Do you think it's fair to say you only check this turn against mid skill players? I wouldn't check this turn at anything past 200NL. It's just an invitation to steal IMO.

Great, so now I start calling your ass down and c/ring both my strongest hands and on a re-steal. Furthermore, consider the impact of escalating effective stakes on each street. I can be a loser on the small streets if I kick your ass on the big streets.

With an over-pair to the board and a 2nd nut flush re-draw, we're in a pretty good spot to check/call our lukewarm hand to the scare card. How often are you expecting double barrel bluffs?

This becomes especially true when you price out a strong opponent (since they probably wouldn't chase a flush badly) on the flop, and you're really just repricing them out to draw to the 4 flush.

Hero ($33.65)
MP3 ($36.70)

Flop: ($2.60) 9, 7, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $2, MP3 calls $2, CO folds.

So let me make sure I'm perfectly square with the thought process here. The flush draw should fold to the flop c-bet and KK should bet (for me this is always about 2/3 pot) any turn card?

At 25nl does this show weakness?

...at that level he probably will bet something like $0.25 or $2 into the $6 pot...