11s. Bubble Push.

[vqc]

***** Hand History for Game 3606243059 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in Trny:20414196 Level:5 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, February 23, 00:07:05 ET 2006
Table Speed #1140642 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 8: TheBoneHer ( $6650 )
Seat 9: fletch300 ( $5360 )
Seat 6: gusfrog ( $2990 )
Seat 7: iglesias ( $5000 )
Trny:20414196 Level:5
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TheBoneHer [ Jd 9c ]
TheBoneHer is all-In [6650]

Good?

[Rockymv]

Nah I fold this. The BB almost has as many chips as you. The table would have to be extremely tight for this to be good.

[Jimmy Mac]

Gengis Khan

(edit - why not just 3x it if you want to steal)

[vqc]

Nah I fold this. The BB almost has as many chips as you. The table would have to be extremely tight for this to be good.

Ok.

The new structure is really fucking with me, I need to update my SNGPT and study again.

[tcpj4]

Maybe it's just me, but I can't see how someone could judge if a steal like this is good or not without some sort of table read and knowledge of their table image. All we've got for information is your cards (which really don't matter) and the stack sizes.

[mcatdog]

Maybe it's just me, but I can't see how someone could judge if a steal like this is good or not without some sort of table read and knowledge of their table image. All we've got for information is your cards (which really don't matter) and the stack sizes.

Not really, the stacks are deep enough that the push sucks against any reasonable calling range.

[vqc]

Maybe it's just me, but I can't see how someone could judge if a steal like this is good or not without some sort of table read and knowledge of their table image. All we've got for information is your cards (which really don't matter) and the stack sizes.

Well I think when Rocky Looked at this hand he said
Ok I think vqc is basing the validity of this steal on the fact that there is a shorty with 5xBB and He has everyone covered.

Given this I can give everyone a series of hand ranges.
Given a series of hand rnages u can see how often this is +EV and how often it isnt +EV.

If all that mattered was Hand ranges then I couldve just plugged it i myself, but I was also wondering if the villians stack sizes affected the ranges enough that this push would be +EV the majority of the time.

[vqc]

For the record this push isnt even neutral EV unless everyones calling with 5%.

[tcpj4]

Not really, the stacks are deep enough that the push sucks against any reasonable calling range.

Eh, first reading the thread I didn't like the push either, I thought I was missing a part of vqc's reasoning for pushing, I just misunderstood the thread.

vqc, I understand what you are saying now, but what you are getting at still seems like a gray area for me. When I steal, I do it because there are favorable conditions on a player-by-player basis, the idea of a specific steal being +ev regardless of the players perhaps is still a little uncharted for me.

But that's probably just me being a <><.

[vqc]

Not really, the stacks are deep enough that the push sucks against any reasonable calling range.

But that's probably just me being a <><.

Its probably the other way around =)

[vqc]

Not really, the stacks are deep enough that the push sucks against any reasonable calling range.

Eh, first reading the thread I didn't like the push either, I thought I was missing a part of vqc's reasoning for pushing, I just misunderstood the thread.

vqc, I understand what you are saying now, but what you are getting at still seems like a gray area for me. When I steal, I do it because there are favorable conditions on a player-by-player basis, the idea of a specific steal being +ev regardless of the players perhaps is still a little uncharted for me.

But that's probably just me being a <><.

***** Hand History for Game 3606243059 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in Trny:20414196 Level:5 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, February 23, 00:07:05 ET 2006
Table Speed #1140642 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 8: TheBoneHer ( $10600 )
Seat 9: fletch300 ( $5000)
Seat 6: gusfrog ( $400 )
Seat 7: iglesias ( $4000 )
Trny:20414196 Level:5
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TheBoneHer [ Jd 9c ]
gusfrog Folds.
TheBoneHer is all-In

If the hand was like this, Its an autopush with 2 cards

[tcpj4]

Yes, now it's much clear what you're saying and what you were asking.

That said, I still wouldn't push. Fold here and you miss out on 1.5 bbs, which probably won't effect the outcome of the tournament. The shortstack will still bubble and you can outplay the rest 3 handed and gain more than that back quickly. UTG, though, I think you run too much of a risk of having someone wake up with a call-worthy hand that could potentially cripple you leaving you with a probable 3rd or maybe a bubble, which would be terrible considering your current situation.

[Trikflow77]

***** Hand History for Game 3606243059 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in Trny:20414196 Level:5 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, February 23, 00:07:05 ET 2006
Table Speed #1140642 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 8: TheBoneHer ( $6650 )
Seat 9: fletch300 ( $5360 )
Seat 6: gusfrog ( $2990 )
Seat 7: iglesias ( $5000 )
Trny:20414196 Level:5
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TheBoneHer [ Jd 9c ]
TheBoneHer is all-In [6650]

Good?

this push is terrible son....come on now.....!!!!!

[vqc]

***** Hand History for Game 3606243059 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in Trny:20414196 Level:5 Blinds(200/400) - Thursday, February 23, 00:07:05 ET 2006
Table Speed #1140642 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 8: TheBoneHer ( $6650 )
Seat 9: fletch300 ( $5360 )
Seat 6: gusfrog ( $2990 )
Seat 7: iglesias ( $5000 )
Trny:20414196 Level:5
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TheBoneHer [ Jd 9c ]
TheBoneHer is all-In [6650]

Good?

this push is terrible son....come on now.....!!!!!

Im workin on it!!!

[biondino]

It's aggression for aggression's sake. Obviously I don't have reads, but while being aggro on the bubble is a good thing, you need to have reasons for when and where you do it. I can't see that you do here - any ace or maybe king from shorty is likely to call you; any pocket pair ditto, and maybe from a big stack too; and any premium hand will eat you for breakfast.

And for what - 600 chips when you're already very comfortable? You are risking your entire tournament on a steal which will make little difference to your overall chance of winning, which will barely hurt the short stack if he folds, but which will relegate you to a very likely 4th (especially if these guys are tight, as I expect they must be for you to have taken this risk) if you get called.