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Counterintuitive AI call with AQo (PS $5.50)

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  1. #1

    Default Counterintuitive AI call with AQo (PS $5.50)

    I was kicking myself for making this call (and busting out) so I ran some ICM analysis on the hand which gave some surprising results. I don't have SNGPT so I did it in a spreadsheet:

    Equity if fold: $4.36
    Equity if call, SB's pushing range 66+, AT+, KQ+: $4.99
    Equity if call, SB's pushing range 66+,AJ+: $4.34

    On reviewing the hand, I think the first range is more likely than the second range since SB may have put me on a steal from the button. SB had otherwise been playing a semi-tight (~30% VPIP), aggressive game. If this is true, then counterintuitively the call of SB's AI raise was good.

    Thoughts?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

    UTG (t4307)
    MP (t3255)
    Hero (t1390)
    SB (t2752)
    BB (t1796)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A.
    2 folds, Hero raises to t300, SB raises to t2752, 1 fold, Hero calls t1090 (All-In).
  2. #2
    Without having been there, I'd bet his range is more like 99+, AQ+.

    Also, I might push this preflop, but that's because I don't know how to play poker.

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