Should I lay my AA down in this situation?

[wilhung53]

Hand #12309420-72 at Mon840pmUBNet-047 (No Limit tournament Hold'em)
Powered by UltimateBet
Started at 27/Feb/06 22:20:03

lovacation is at seat 0 with 4200.
kidcobra53 is at seat 1 with 6565.
scottyho is at seat 2 with 4990.
owenpcowen is at seat 3 with 1635.
whisky_flu is at seat 4 with 2470.
ROSSALLIN is at seat 5 with 3035.
wilhung53 is at seat 6 with 1995.
stacks46 is at seat 7 with 9500.
TOY_nn is at seat 8 with 2875.
macker357 is at seat 9 with 2445.
The button is at seat 1.

scottyho posts the small blind of 30.
owenpcowen posts the big blind of 60.

lovacation: -- --
kidcobra53: -- --
scottyho: -- --
owenpcowen: -- --
whisky_flu: -- --
ROSSALLIN: -- --
wilhung53: Ad Ac
stacks46: -- --
TOY_nn: -- --
macker357: -- --

Pre-flop:

whisky_flu calls. ROSSALLIN folds. wilhung53 raises
to 180. stacks46 folds. TOY_nn folds. macker357
folds. lovacation folds. kidcobra53 folds.
scottyho calls. owenpcowen folds. whisky_flu folds.


Flop (board: Qc Qh 2s):

scottyho bets 60. wilhung53 raises to 330. scottyho
re-raises to 600. wilhung53 calls.

Turn (board: Qc Qh 2s 2c):

scottyho bets 1680 - wilhung53: ?

There are still 900+ players left. I can afford to fold, but I think he maybe making a play here too, using his chip stack as leverage to get me to lay down my best hand. But it's a tough call for me, what do you guys think? There's quite a bit at stake, considering the top 3 gets a seat to play at FSN (Fox Sports Net) Ultimatebet.net Poker Challenge in LA. So I'm not sure if he's bluffing. I think he has a Q, b/c he simply called and "looked me up" at the BB.

[Death_Kube_K]

I call here on the turn, i think if he had a QUEEN then he would of slow played it. and i dont think he would of called your pre-flop raise with a 2 in his hand...... unless of coarse he plays AxSuited, but still he would of slow played. I put him on 99-10-JJ-KK or even A-K. Althought your not pot Commited i would call the bet!

[wilhung53]

Remember, when Scottyho bets 1680, that is all my chips and my tournament life at stake. But what is weird is that he bets 60 at first - it is a rainbow board with no draws whatsoever.

[LeFou]

his play is consistent with any pair >3, and as suggested above doesn't make much sense for a Q
It's a call

[gabe]

Flop (board: Qc Qh 2s):

scottyho bets 60. wilhung53 raises to 330. scottyho
re-raises to 600. wilhung53 calls.

i fold after he does the minbet-reraise

i'm weak tight

[chardrian]

scotty has the Q at least 80% of the time here based on the minbet/minre-raise line.

[gabe]

scotty has the Q at least 80% of the time here based on the minbet/minre-raise line.

word

[chardrian]

read my eyebrows

[gabe]

lol

[shysti]

To me this is a fold, I mean his mini bet, then a reraise screams to me that he may have the queen here, and wants you to think that he's bluffing.

Besides this is early in the tourny you'll have plenty of time to get the chips back you have vested in this hand.

[KoRnholio]

If he had a queen and isn't a total donk, he would bet smaller on the turn to make sure you call. I'd call this.

[pgil]

i think the fact that you called his reraise on the flop tells him that you will lose your stack here if he lets you, thats why the big bet on the turn. fold it. i say this, but would still probably call and lose.

[chardrian]

If he had a queen and isn't a total donk, he would bet smaller on the turn to make sure you call. I'd call this.

He already has the opp sucked in with the call of the minraise. Now is the time to maximize. Hence the "big" bet on the turn.

It should be noted that the bet really isnt even that big on the turn - by that point it is about pot sized.

[KoRnholio]

If he had a queen and isn't a total donk, he would bet smaller on the turn to make sure you call. I'd call this.

He already has the opp sucked in with the call of the minraise. Now is the time to maximize. Hence the "big" bet on the turn.

Like other posters have said, this play could be made just as easily with a middle pair below queens.

It should be noted that the bet really isnt even that big on the turn - by that point it is about pot sized.

True it's not an overbet, but it probably isn't a bet that isn't extracting value from a nut fullhouse with Qx either. If the villain has Qx then he knows our hero is looking at 2 outs (of not zero) to win on the river.

I'd put the villain on something like 77-TT and hoping for either a fold or a call by an AK/AJ/low pair type hand.

[chardrian]

It could be made jsut as easily - but it's not.

I stand by my at least 80% mark. A lower pocket pair is not going to minbet that flop, he will make a standard raise and then proceed from there. The minbet/minraise = I gots the goods and you fell for it sucka.

[biondino]

How many times do FTRers say that pushing as a fake bluff is a decent move to add to your armoury? So he could be a) pushing cos he's a donk, b) pushing cos he's faking a bluff, or c) pushing because he knows trips are always vulnerable.

He has the queen, I'd put money on it.

[drmcboy]

the full is a little less vunerable than trips. Board reading +EV.

I'm with the fold crowd, but calling isn't terrible either. It just depends what level you give him credit for. A smart player may recognize that the faster he plays his Q, the harder it will be for PPs to get away on that board. Donkey may not realize he just made a full.