another bluff

[gabe]

first hand of a $50+5, obv no reads

PokerStars Game #4081758069: Tournament #20002468, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2006/02/24 - 12:00:00 (ET)
Table '20002468 14' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: bigredAK (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: tralaira (1500 in chips)
Seat 3: KGB-034 (1500 in chips)
Seat 4: NoOl3Ru (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: inblack007 (1500 in chips)
Seat 8: No Leaks (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: gp333 (1500 in chips)
tralaira: posts small blind 10
KGB-034: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gp333 [Qs Ac]
NoOl3Ru: calls 20
inblack007: folds
No Leaks: raises 60 to 80
gp333: calls 80
bigredAK: folds
turkeys neck is connected
LetsGoYankss is connected
tralaira: calls 70
KGB-034: folds
NoOl3Ru: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 9h 2s]
tralaira: checks
No Leaks: checks
gp333: bets 220
tralaira: folds
No Leaks: calls 220
*** TURN *** [9s 9h 2s] [Kh]
No Leaks: checks
gp333: checks
*** RIVER *** [9s 9h 2s Kh] [Jd]
No Leaks: checks
gp333: bets 1200 and is all-in

he can't call right?

[chardrian]

The fact that you dont want him to call doesnt mean he can't call.

I doubt he is calling here tho with anything less than a J.

[gabe]

ok.

its the first hand, no reads. what do put I him on? flop looks like ak/aq i guess, AK got there and AQ didn't.. maybe he has pocket pair. he can fold almost any pocket pair that didn't set except aces probably and he folds AQ, and finds it tought to call with AK.

[Sprayed]

I say small pp since he didn't raise the standard that you see with AQ+ and JJ+.

[chardrian]

Meh - if you had checked the flop and bet 220 on the turn I would agree with your assessment.

As is, I can see a call with TK+ there+. The push on the river after the turn check signifies weakness to me, but maybe that's just me.

As your opp in this situation I would think that you proabbly don't have a 9 or a boat or you would try and get some value on the river (although your push might be a sneaky ploy to get me to call your monster). To me, your push there would signify either a bluff or you hit the J. If you had a K you woulda bet the turn. If I had a pocket pair lower than JJ I probably think a long time and fold, kicking myself tho. If I had a K, a pocket pair higher than JJ, or even a hand like AJ, I think I might be calling here.

[Sprayed]

I was thinking a small pp because I wouldn't think that AJ would stay with you after your bet on the flop. Maybe AK would, but I would think that he would bet the K. Small pp would raise like he did pre-flop and then stay with you because his pair is close to the nines and figures you for over cards. Your AI would cause me to think why you would go AI on the river. Either, as chard said, sneaky play to get me to call or a major bluff. Maybe he has quads and is playing you.

[WildBobAA]

I know this doesn't fit your style at all but I fold this PF.

[Rockymv]

Looks like a medium pp to me, maybe TT or 88. AK probably bets the turn or at least doesn't check the river. AJ is possible but probably folds the flop, and definitely bets the river.

[gabe]

result: he folded after not much thought

[drmcboy]

his play also fits a 9, assuming he is willing to raise it pre flop.

Having said that I think you're OK here. 600 or so in the pot, you're putting 1200 in to win it, so it needs to work 2 out of 3. I think it will. I do think you get insta called by AK/KJ, but KQ or anything less, very tough. I just say that because you don't call 200 on the flop with AK then fold when you get there. But most people don't call there anyway (with AK/KJ on the flop), which is why it's more likley it's a PP, which is why I think this works better than 2/3.