Profitible push from the BB?

[fjuanl]

Just wondering if this play is +EV. Yes I got owned. I grinded it out forever and he completes AA 5 handed. I thought about it afterwards and I still think it was a correct move, but I want some clarification.

Stars $10 18-man SnG. 4 pay, 5 are left.

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #4136942526: Tournament #20556611, Hold'em No Limit -
Level IX (300/600) - 2006/03/01 - 03:29:06 (ET)
Table '20556611 2' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: ChekNTheDark (6895 in chips)
Seat 5: DickNonsense (6530 in chips)
Seat 7: fjuanl (5585 in chips)
Seat 8: Mars1560 (1180 in chips)
Seat 9: Noah1016 (6810 in chips)
ChekNTheDark: posts the ante 50
DickNonsense: posts the ante 50
fjuanl: posts the ante 50
Mars1560: posts the ante 50
Noah1016: posts the ante 50
DickNonsense: posts small blind 300
fjuanl: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to fjuanl [7h Ac]
Mars1560: folds
Noah1016: folds
ChekNTheDark: folds
DickNonsense: calls 300
fjuanl: raises 4935 to 5535 and is all-in

[Rockymv]

if i didn't have a read i'd do this every time. if you've noticed he's an exceptionally solid player he probably wouldn't limp unless trying to trap. bad players limp crap in this spot all the time so mostly i push.

[Staresy]

Rocky (or anyone for that matter), does the fact that Mars has to put in half his stack next hand maybe call for a more moderate raise, just in case SB has picked up a hand here?

Fire up to 1600-1800, gives u a getaway if he moves over the top.

[johnnyshaka]

With the shortstack at less than twice the BB, I wouldn't be putting all my chips at risk unless I'm sitting with a monster...but maybe that's just me.

[fjuanl]

I was just putting my money in with what I thought was the best hand. If I check and give up on the flop, I'm at 4900. If I push and he folds (which I think will happen 80% of the time) I'm sitting with 6100. Still no? Just because he has half his stack in next hand doesnt mean the bubbles going to break right away.

I'd like to know what other people think about raising like Staresy said

[Rockymv]

i didn't see the short stack. i still push it though. given there's a shortstack, this is a less than ideal time to trap.

[fjuanl]

i didn't see the short stack. i still push it though. given there's a shortstack, this is a less than ideal time to trap.

why? i thought maybe there might be more of a chance hes trapping because of the shorstack. he would assume I dont want to risk too much since the shorstack will be out soon, in which case he'll complete big hands. He probably doesnt want to get involved since he could just fold and almost guarantee himself money, which means he isnt going to complete with garbage

[johnnyshaka]

I was just putting my money in with what I thought was the best hand. If I check and give up on the flop, I'm at 4900. If I push and he folds (which I think will happen 80% of the time) I'm sitting with 6100. Still no? Just because he has half his stack in next hand doesnt mean the bubbles going to break right away.

I'd like to know what other people think about raising like Staresy said

If you think you have the best hand, fine, as long as you can live with that. But I think I would rather wait for a better hand to do something like this, especially on the bubble. I mean, even if you muck after the flop and don't complete in the SB, you are sitting at $4600, and odds are the shortstack goes allin in the BB with any two cards and is more than likely done. If he manages to double up, well, that means one of the bigger stacks had to call is now down to around $1500-1000 more chips than you...definitely easily made up with these high blinds...and you are still twice as big as the shortie.

[Rockymv]

i didn't see the short stack. i still push it though. given there's a shortstack, this is a less than ideal time to trap.

why? i thought maybe there might be more of a chance hes trapping because of the shorstack. he would assume I dont want to risk too much since the shorstack will be out soon, in which case he'll complete big hands. He probably doesnt want to get involved since he could just fold and almost guarantee himself money, which means he isnt going to complete with garbage

if he's completing with big hands because he's aware of the short, then he's afraid of losing his chips and will fold those big hands. ex. if he limped aq because he's aware of the short stack and he's going to fold it when you push.

[Scuba Chuck]

if i didn't have a read i'd do this every time.

Come on man. This is utter nonsense. This is so blatantly a check here every time (unless you can prove to me that he folds this 100% of the time).

[Rockymv]

if he's not trapping he's fold really close to 100% of the time. and this isn't a likely spot for a trap.

checking is perfectly fine too, but I'd push this. although hopefully by this point you'd have some kind of read on him.

[vqc]

if i didn't have a read i'd do this every time.

Come on man. This is utter nonsense. This is so blatantly a check here every time (unless you can prove to me that he folds this 100% of the time).

Does my experience in this situation count as proof?
If i dont have read that hes a trapper, I push this more often than not.

[fjuanl]

Come on man. This is utter nonsense. This is so blatantly a check here every time (unless you can prove to me that he folds this 100% of the time).

can you explain? my thinking was this :

80-90% of the time he is folding and I win 1100.

10-20% of the time he is calling and I win 11620 30% of the time (excluding AA because 1 outers are ghey)

Seems like a pretty good choice to me, especially since I dont care about bubbling.


Just out of curiosity, what are the chances each player has an ace heads up?