Should I push with the Nuts here?

[GatorJH]

PokerStars Game #4161771156: Tournament #20686538, Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/03/03 - 15:07:59 (ET)
Table '20686538 1' Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: santa12 (470 in chips)
Seat 2: ASSMAN 55 (1040 in chips)
Seat 3: nakynake (2270 in chips)
Seat 4: sonsu_jf (950 in chips)
Seat 5: Mambokid (1230 in chips)
Seat 6: maxcady91 (1875 in chips)
Seat 7: GatorJH (1440 in chips)
Seat 8: grunfy (2340 in chips)
Seat 9: CHRISPER (1885 in chips)
GatorJH: posts small blind 15
grunfy: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to GatorJH [Jh Qh]
CHRISPER: folds
santa12: folds
ASSMAN 55: folds
nakynake: folds
sonsu_jf: raises 60 to 90
Mambokid: calls 90
maxcady91: folds
GatorJH: calls 75
grunfy: folds
*** FLOP *** [Td 9d 8c]
GatorJH: checks
sonsu_jf: bets 60
Mambokid: calls 60
GatorJH: ?????

Should I push here? If not, how much would you bet?

Player A (sonsu_jf) was fairly tight, but Player B (Mambokid) was very loose and could have a wide range of hands. It is quite possible that one of them is on a flush draw.

[Phantaroth]

Tough decision. The reasoning being is, if he is willing to call a pot size bet with the flush draw and the turn is a diamond, yer in bad shape. Yet then again, If he makes that call he is in even worse shape then you woulda been if turn is not a diamond.

I bet the pot and pot and push the turn if there isn't a diamond.

[andy-akb]

I dont think a push would be the best play to maximize your win. You have the nuts on the flop and this isnt too scary a flop, there is a flush draw, but I dont think that warrants a push. There is 300 in the pot [if my math is correct] on the flop before the betting. After the betting there is 420, pushing is a huge overbet and I dont know what would call. Id raise to 420 and go from there. Basically, I agree with Phantaroth.

[zenbitz]

TP might call a push figuring you for a f/d.

[samsonite2100]

I agree with the above two responses. I think situations like this have been a big leak in my game. I'll flop a great hand, and proceed to overplay it for fear of getting drawn out. I've left a shitload of chips on the table because I always imagine the monster under the bed. Recently I've started trying to cure myself of this and my game has improved immensely. There is usually no monster...

[Warpe]

Pot it.

[Rockymv]

If you can count on the preflop raiser to cont. bet the flop, I think check-raising is the best option. However, it sounds like you can't count on this guy for that. Bet the pot, and push if you get raised. If someone cold calls, push a non-diamond turn. If the turn is a diamond....then that's a tough decision. Pushing sucks on a diamond turn because you only get called by a made flush. I might try to check-raise all-in (assuming the hand is heads up by now). A check on the turn would look weak, and give your opponent a chance to bluff. 3-handed on a diamond turn I don't know what I'd do.

[GatorJH]

Here is what happened next

*** FLOP *** [Td 9d 8c]
GatorJH: checks
sonsu_jf: bets 60
Mambokid: calls 60
GatorJH: raises 300 to 360
sonsu_jf: raises 500 to 860 and is all-in
Mambokid: raises 280 to 1140 and is all-in
GatorJH: ?????

Now what - Does the fact that there I am getting 3.4 to 1 (780 call to win 2,660) make this an insta call?

Also, at this point what hand range would you put them on?

[Rockymv]

dude you have the nuts (other than QJd). call.

[samsonite2100]

I don't get it--call, of course. Am I missing something? Are you that worried about the flush draw?
As far as the hand range goes, if this is less than, say, a $55 game, I'd put them on anything from about 8-2 offsuit up.

[konahead]

I raise it to 300 there, so anyone on a flush draw has to put in another 240 into a pot of 720 - 3 to 1 odds.

Only problem is if 1st opp calls, then 2nd opp is getting the right odds for a flush draw...

Maybe potting it is right (420)...... then 1st opp is getting 2.3 and second opp is getting 3.3 on a 4-1 draw...

I'd make it 300-400.

[swiggidy]

If one has a high pp/set and the other is on a flush draw...

363,006 games 0.125 secs 2,904,048 games/sec

Board: Td 9d 8c

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.8820 % 47.26% 02.62% { QhJh }
Hand 2: 34.8081 % 32.94% 01.87% { AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, QdTd, JdTd, Jd9d, Td9d, Td8d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 7d6d, 7d5d }
Hand 3: 15.3098 % 14.45% 00.86% { 88+ }

It's a coin-flip.

[GatorJH]

I couldn't hit the call button fast enough, but I remember the day when I would actually think about laying this down so I thought it would be a good question to ask.

GatorJH: raises 300 to 360
sonsu_jf: raises 500 to 860 and is all-in
Mambokid: raises 280 to 1140 and is all-in
GatorJH: calls 780
*** TURN *** [Td 9d 8c] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [Td 9d 8c Ks] [4h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
GatorJH: shows [Jh Qh] (a straight, Nine to King)
Mambokid: shows [9h Th] (two pair, Tens and Nines)
GatorJH collected 560 from side pot
sonsu_jf: shows [5d Kd] (a pair of Kings)
GatorJH collected 2880 from main pot

[Scuba Chuck]

Player A (sonsu_jf) was fairly tight

Should I push here?

I think this is an interesting question, although no one has technically answered it in the context in which I think you are asking it. Regardless of your decision, the likely results will be the same.

So, let's discuss your question. Essentially, what I think I hear you asking is that you KNOW Player A has a set. There's no other way Player A makes this fishy bet like this without the set. I've played against other players I know where I see that, and absolutely, if this is the read you're making you could push. For this type of player, there are a ton of turn scare cards (diamonds, 7, J, & Q). But, your play which is to raise to 300 is also a good play, as Player A's style will be one to reraise allin.

So, perhaps your question is this. Because you know Player A's hand, will pushing keep the loosey goosey guy out? I don't know the answer to that. Perhaps another question to ask is, do we want him out? We will have incredible pot odds here, likely 50%, and we're getting 2:1 on our money. Either way, there's nothing wrong with your play. Although, if my assumptions are correct, I do like your thought process.

[GatorJH]

Chuck,
You are right in that I thought player A had a good hand (at least two pair), but wanted to keep the loose guy in as well.

BTW, I don't think we want him out. If his range of hands is as large as we think it is and he is loose he may be willing to go along for the ride. As it turned out, he actually had the better of the two hands. Player A was on the draw and he had two pair.

[Scuba Chuck]

Chuck,
You are right in that I thought player A had a good hand (at least two pair), but wanted to keep the loose guy in as well.

BTW, I don't think we want him out. If his range of hands is as large as we think it is and he is loose he may be willing to go along for the ride. As it turned out, he actually had the better of the two hands. Player A was on the draw and he had two pair.

Guess you need to work on your player reading skillz.

[GatorJH]

That ain't all I need to work on!!!!!