Calculating Odds

[Habris]

I was wondering is someone could help explain calculating implied odds for this hand. I'm not sure if implied odds is the correct term for the illustration below, but I'm trying to get a grasp of acceptable risk with stack sizes etc. Only interested in post flop play as the limp was a deliberate change of pace.
I've run this scenario thru poker stove and it confirmed my in-game estimation of how much I was behind in the hand. Once villian pushed I knew he was drawing especially given his previous play. My thought process here was that even though I was a little behind with TP against flush draw, I thought that with my stack size the risk was acceptable to try and knock him out. Looking at it again I'm not so sure. Basically what I'm asking is, is there a simple matrix or equation that I can use during play that will help make this decision a little better/finite?

*********** # 109 **************
PokerStars Game #4145345480: Tournament #20598168, Hold'em No Limit - Level
VIII (200/400) - 2006/03/01 - 23:04:40 (ET)
Table '20598168 1' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: gemsetr (2095 in chips)
Seat 7: beat ou (2300 in chips)
Seat 8: Habris (9105 in chips)
gemsetr: posts the ante 25
beat ou: posts the ante 25
Habris: posts the ante 25
Habris: posts small blind 200
gemsetr: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Habris [Kc 6s]
beat ou: folds
Habris: calls 200
gemsetr: checks
*** FLOP *** [4c 2h 6h]
Habris: bets 800
gemsetr: raises 870 to 1670 and is all-in
Habris: calls 870
*** TURN *** [4c 2h 6h] [Kh]
*** RIVER *** [4c 2h 6h Kh] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Habris: shows [Kc 6s] (a full house, Kings full of Sixes)
gemsetr: shows [Ah 9h] (a flush, Ace high)
Habris collected 4215 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4215 | Rake 0
Board [4c 2h 6h Kh Kd]
Seat 2: gemsetr (big blind) showed [Ah 9h] and lost with a flush, Ace high
Seat 7: beat ou (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Habris (small blind) showed [Kc 6s] and won (4215) with a full
house, Kings full of Sixes[/color]

[AHiltz]

The way you played it there is no implied odds. Once he pushes there is no more money going into the pot, so you know exactly what your odds are. You're getting 3.85:1 to call.

If you think he's on a draw and you're ahead, it's a stupid easy call.
If he has a straight, you are a major dog and should not call.
If he has an overpair, you have 5 outs, and you are 4:1 to hit.

As soon as you bet the flop for that amount, you must be willing to call the push. Odds aren't really that big of a factor at this stage of the game.

[fasin8ing]

With your sixes your actually an underdog. 46 % for u to win.. 56 % for him. Dude had like 15 outs , 2 overs and a flush draw. Check out this post..

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ght=calculator

[A10Chief]

Is this a change of pace because you normally push preflop? Because that is the correct play.

[konahead]

yeah - preflop is std - call or raise w a King...

No implied odds here - you're getting 3.8 to 1 odds and you're only that much of an underdog to a couple of hands. As AHiltz said, once you bet 1/2 his stack on the flop, you were going to have to call his push.

Think about what you'll do if he raises or pushes BEFORE you bet, not after.... (I make the same mistake sometimes....)

[relayer]

Is this a change of pace because you normally push preflop? Because that is the correct play.

What is stndrd? Pushing AI w/K6 preflop?

If that is standard, then I obviously have no clue what I'm doing...

[A10Chief]

In this case pushing w/ K6 is standard. Basically, it goes like this:

-Hero is the big stack (by a wide margin in this case)
-It's three handed
-Hero has a hand that is a 54-46 favorite over a random hand.
-BB will need a top 30% hand or better to call (depends on whether BB knows what he's doing or not)
-Even against villains calling range (top 30% plus all PP's) hero is only a 60-40 dog, so 40% of the time villain calls, hero eliminates him anyway.
-Over 80% of the time, hero gets the result he wants, be it a fold preflop or a call and win.


It all adds up to +EV big stack play.

[relayer]

A-10, rthank you for the explanation. I hadn't noticed the huge disparity in stack sizes, so this does seem sensible.

One question, though: when you wrote: "Hero has a hand that is a 54-46 favorite over a random hand," did you PokerStove that, or is that something you carry around in your head? If the latter, I'm impressed.

[A10Chief]

Pokerstove. BTW, I did the math on this push and it's actually only marginally +EV if villains calling range is the top 32.4% of hands (the top 30% plus all pocket pairs and a couple extra Ax offs thrown in for good measure). Against a range of the Top 20% of hands, it's a little more solid. I think this is probably much closer to a true range than the one I initially proposed.