do you raise your draws?

[konahead]

in retrospect, the turn raise was a terrible move, and I would have been better off just calling with my draw. I bet the flop to get a free turn card, but the turn card was so nice I wanted to sweeten the pot. I knew that if I hit I wouldn't get much more out of opp, so I was really making a value bet.... Is this just stupid play, or is value betting here a reasonable move with so many outs? And do you fold to the push, or gamble here? It's still early and I have a good stack, but doubling up would almost certainly put me in the money...

#Game No : 3658816280
***** Hand History for Game 3658816280 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in Trny:20655765 Level:3 Blinds(50/100) - Friday, March 03, 09:36:19 ET 2006
Table Speed #1135657 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 6: johnnynugz47 ( $6053 )
Seat 10: Kim283 ( $3341 )
Seat 7: konahead ( $2340 )
Seat 1: CassVass ( $2340 )
Seat 5: kk1311kk ( $2587 )
Seat 3: Tais52 ( $3339 )
Trny:20655765 Level:3
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to konahead [ 6h 4h ]
Kim283 folds.
CassVass folds.
Tais52 folds.
kk1311kk folds.
johnnynugz47 calls [50].
konahead checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8d, 5h, As ]
johnnynugz47 checks.
konahead bets [100].
johnnynugz47 calls [100].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
johnnynugz47 bets [100].
konahead raises [400].
johnnynugz47 is all-In [5753]
konahead ?????

I put opp on either 8x or Ax - but not Axhearts. (He tended to smooth-call his strong draws - that doesn't mean he 100% doesn't have Axhearts but I'm playing it that he doesn't have it based on my read....) Was 1/2 pot flop bet a waste of chips given the size of opp's stack? (Was just trying to buy a free turn card....) Do you raise the turn given how many more outs you now have? Do you call the push if you believe you have 15 clean outs? (If opp has A8 it would drop my outs to 13, but he certainly would have raised my flop bet. Obviously A8hearts would just be a disaster here but like I said, I'm going with my read here.) And I certainly screwed up this hand.....

[journey075]

15 outs = 31% chance to win. why the hell do you want to put your money in as that much of a dog?

i like to raise oesds and flush draws on the flop but thats it. i dont bet gutshots. way it was played though, i call turn.

[konahead]

I have an OESFD, not a gutshot.....

oh - you mean on the flop? I was buying a free turn card.... actually worked fairly well - he only bet the turn 100.....

[fasin8ing]

Question... Why wouldnt you check the flop, see what hes offering you as far as pot odds? If he checks behind you bet the turn ? Would this have saved you 100 chips? If you put him on A x, he would have bet the flop ... All in with two pair. Ace 3 . ?

[konahead]

Thought it would be cheaper to bet 100 (1/2 pot) rather than see what he did, and I was willing to call 100 so felt it was better to bet it than risk a higher bet from him - and I wanted to find out where I stood. If he had raised there, I'd have folded the flop. And it would improve my pot odds if I caught a nice turn card (which I did....)

good read - yes, he had A3o....

[fasin8ing]

Thought it would be cheaper to bet 100 (1/2 pot) rather than see what he did, and I was willing to call 100 so felt it was better to bet it than risk a higher bet from him - and I wanted to find out where I stood. If he had raised there, I'd have folded the flop. And it would improve my pot odds if I caught a nice turn card (which I did....)

good read - yes, he had A3o....

If you checked the turn and you were him .. What would you bet with two perrrrrrrrrrr?

[konahead]

not sure I understand - he acted first on the turn so I couldn't check, although I certainly could have/should have just called... (I didn't put him on 2 pair at that point - I still had him on Ax with an unmatched kicker...)

I'm thinking my raise of his 100 turn bet was stupid, regardless of my reasoning. Never raise the turn on a draw - Fair statement? Or do you raise your draws?

[fasin8ing]

not sure I understand - he acted first on the turn so I couldn't check, although I certainly could have/should have just called... (I didn't put him on 2 pair at that point - I still had him on Ax with an unmatched kicker...)

I'm thinking my raise of his 100 turn bet was stupid, regardless of my reasoning. Never raise the turn on a draw - Fair statement? Or do you raise your draws?

I will raise a min with a flush draw on the turn Axs. When I started playing I used to pay first and hope later. I had a bad habit of trying to build a big pot for any draw. Then ... When they dont come around, like your example... I lose . I still fuc that up every now and then .. I like hitting middle or top pair with an ace kicker suited on a four flush raising the turn better. A check on that turn would have been lovely from both of you if a heart hit. More for you though. Iam done betting potentials for right now.. I have learned poker is not about hope. Kona, Iam sure you have replied to some of my posts helping me realize that .. I owe you thanks.

[konahead]

ty, sir. we all try to help each other. i appreciate your input and will think a lot longer before I act in this situation in the future....

[drmcboy]

raise if there is a good chance you'll win pot, call (assuming right price) if not. In this case, he's likley not folding an A for 300 more, he likley is folding the 8. So if your read was he had the A, the raise is blah. Plus with your flop bet the heart may not scare him as much as it should, he'll probably pay off on the river if he doesn't lead at it.

[GatorJH]

I'm thinking my raise of his 100 turn bet was stupid, regardless of my reasoning. Never raise the turn on a draw

ding, ding, ding - We have a winner!!!

[konahead]

[Scuba Chuck]

15 outs = 31% chance to win.

What's ur chance if you have 15 outs and 2 cards to come?

[A10Chief]

54.1006%

[journey075]

15 outs = 31% chance to win.

What's ur chance if you have 15 outs and 2 cards to come?

there is no way this is a serious question. a guy that plays well professionally doesnt ask this.

[Borax]

I raise my draws, but not as a rule. This is an easy pattern to pick up on a player and easy to counter by a big reraise. So mix it up and raise some of your draws and check or call some. You do not want the table to easily put you on a draw and be right.

[konahead]

journey075 - scuba chuck was making a point, not asking a question....

[BreakfastMan]

15 outs with two to come is about 52%.

Konahead, The bet on the flop is fine, you might win the pot right there. My bet on the flop would have been at bit smaller to reduce my variance, but that is a matter of style not substance.

You already know what you should have done on the turn.