My turn - set on a monotone flop

[Scuba Chuck]

This is a $55 Party Poker Speed game

***** Hand History for Game 3664729963 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $55 Buy-in Trny:20684375 Level:1 Blinds(20/40) - Saturday, March 04, 03:17:15 ET 2006
Table Speed #1136749 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Bosnian71 ( $1960 )
Seat 4: treadingH20 ( $1960 ) Ad Ac
Seat 5: BitterFrank ( $2666 ) Kh Td
Seat 6: NoFearHelps ( $2000 )
Seat 10: Scuba Chuck ( $2060 )
Seat 7: KovnerS ( $1980 )
Seat 3: billy199 ( $1474 )
Seat 8: atrocitor ( $1940 )
Seat 2: BD2ND ( $2000 ) 3d 3s
Seat 9: Penner ( $1960 )
Trny:20684375 Level:1
Blinds(20/40)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Scuba Chuck [ 5d 5s ]
>You have options at Speed #1136702 Table!.
Bosnian71 calls [40].
>You have options at Speed #1136531 Table!.
BD2ND calls [40].
billy199 folds.
>You have options at Speed #1136702 Table!.
treadingH20 raises [175].
>You have options at Speed #1136702 Table!.
BitterFrank calls [175].
NoFearHelps folds.
KovnerS folds.
atrocitor folds.
Penner folds.
>You have options at Speed #1136702 Table!.
Scuba Chuck calls [135].
Bosnian71 calls [135].
BD2ND calls [135].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, 3h, 5h ]
Scuba Chuck checks.
Bosnian71 checks.
>You have options at Mojo Rising Table!.
BD2ND checks.
treadingH20 is all-In [1785]
BitterFrank calls [1785].
>You have options at Speed #1136702 Table!.
Scuba Chuck

Okay, ur move? Also, who leads this flop?
Anyone want to take some stabs on the hand ranges?
I'll add that BitterFrank nearly insta-called.

[boost]

this I might fold.... but lets slow down and look at your odds. ~2:1 right? And we have to assume you have 7 outs going to the turn and 10 outs going to the river right? Thats assuming that one has the flush. treading obviously doesnt have the flush, bitter frank however quite possibly could. I really am gonna get a head ache doing the math here, but youve gotta factor in how often bitter is calling with the draw, and how often he has it, this comes from your reads. Then you gotta run the probability of winning in both hands then combine those and all that stuff. 2:1 odds might be good here. Then again you also have around 50 bbs.

Sitting at the table seeing as you dont have time to calculate it really on the spot, I probably make the call, not sure if it is wrong its probably boarderline, and following "if you lose with a set youre supposed to lose big" motto will help in the long run since this situation happens so little and its not terribly -ev if at all.

[journey075]

tradingh20: AhKx, AxKh, QQ+
bitterfrank: 33, 99, A9, TT+, any made flush

i call in a heartbeat. i really dislike leading on this flop, it might get overpairs to slow down and not feel the need to protect the shit out of their hand.

[Rockymv]

I think it's pretty easy to put tradingh20 on an overpair or the nut flush draw. Since it's unlikely the flush would push the flop, bitter frank could have any set, overpair, or made flush.

[Ash256]

I'd fold after the all-ins personally. Too many hands to beat you.

But, straight after the flop I'd have led with a large, but non-commital bet (roughly 200), to block out any idiots with flush draws, and to find out if anyone has a made flush. A very large bet may make an overpair fold.

Or maybe what I'm saying is rubbish because I play low-stakes.

Help me out here, am I talking crap?

[samsonite2100]

Treading H2O--AhKx/AxKh
Bitter Frank -- considering the instacall, made flush, probably.

I dunno. This is a crying call or a crying fold--I have no idea what the math is, but this instinctively feels like a very, very marginal decision to me. Accordingly, I would fold, as you have a healthy stack and it's early.

[Scuba Chuck]

Anyone want to take some stabs on the hand ranges?

My god people start putting people on hand ranges. I'll start.

The pfr likely has QQ+, maybe A K

There are also cogent arguments that checking here is the best line, why is that?

[samsonite2100]

tradingh20: AhKx, AxKh, QQ+
bitterfrank: 33, 99, A9, TT+, any made flush

I think it's pretty easy to put tradingh20 on an overpair or the nut flush draw. Since it's unlikely the flush would push the flop, bitter frank could have any set, overpair, or made flush.

Treading H2O--AhKx/AxKh
Bitter Frank -- considering the instacall, made flush, probably.

My god people start putting people on hand ranges. I'll start. The pfr likely has QQ+, maybe A Heart K

Thanks for starting. What a bunch of lazy fucks we all are...

[fasin8ing]

There are also cogent arguments that checking here is the best line, why is that?

If you check and the turn is a club you can call a bet if it gives you enough odds to try for a boat. And if no club comes on the turn you can bet your set for value on the river but lay it down if you get check raised.

Reassurance part 1. And Chuck you thought I didnt retain any information.

[Scuba Chuck]

Thanks for starting. What a bunch of lazy fucks we all are...

So you think putting people on a super narrow hand range is doing some work? Really, what needs to be done here is to figure out how wide BitterFrank's call could be. Not how narrow.

[Scuba Chuck]

There are also cogent arguments that checking here is the best line, why is that?

If you check and the turn is a club you can call a bet if it gives you enough odds to try for a boat. And if no club comes on the turn you can bet your set for value on the river but lay it down if you get check raised.

Reassurance part 1. And Chuck you thought I didnt retain any information.

There's 850 chips in the pot, and a big PFR-er. Do we really believe this is gonna check through?

[pgil]

i personally am very confused by the play of bitterfrank here. what hands does he call that preflop raise with?? gotta think low to mid PP. a mid to weak ace seems like a very bad call but not totally unlikely. he's in a horrible position with many people to act after him. suited connectors also seems like a horrible call with the possibility of a reraise still looming. i think 88+ could make this call, maybe AQ+. i would lean more towards a PP than an A though.
the pf raiser would be something in the range of AJ+, 66+, KJs+, but that may be a bit wide.

[samsonite2100]

So you think putting people on a super narrow hand range is doing some work? Really, what needs to be done here is to figure out how wide BitterFrank's call could be. Not how narrow.

What I think is that it's funny you posted a huffy demand for hand ranges and then suggested the exact hand ranges that three other people had supplied. Do you not find some humor there?
I'd post a wider calling range, but I'm afraid of making you angry that I didn't post a wider calling range.

[MAX]

preflop:

Bosnian71 calls [40]. (any pp/suited connector or gapper/KJ+)
BD2ND calls [40]. (any pp/suited connector or gapper/KJ+)
treadingH20 raises [175]. (AJ+/88+)
BitterFrank calls [175]. (any pp/AQ+)

After the raise, and calls, I would up Bosnian and BD2ND ranges to: any pp/suited connector or gapper/AQ+

Post flop:
Treading H20: Overpair/Ah/99
Bitterfrank: Overpair/Ah/99/Made Flush

It seems to me that although you will either get sucked out on by a flush draw, already be behind a bigger set, or already be behind a made flush a significant amount of the time, The times when you are ahead and hold/boat up make this a more-than-marginal profitable call. I am most concerned with the near insta call, this is a leak in most players games and usually indicates they have the goods. I could see using this as justification for folding, but since it may indicate 33/Ah, I lean towards making the call. I don't play the 55s, so am interested on your thoughts about my ranges.

[Scuba Chuck]

preflop:

Bosnian71 calls [40]. (any pp/suited connector or gapper/KJ+)
BD2ND calls [40]. (any pp/suited connector or gapper/KJ+)
treadingH20 raises [175]. (AJ+/88+)
BitterFrank calls [175]. (any pp/AQ+)

After the raise, and calls, I would up Bosnian and BD2ND ranges to: any pp/suited connector or gapper/AQ+

Post flop:
Treading H20: Overpair/Ah/99
Bitterfrank: Overpair/Ah/99/Made Flush

It seems to me that although you will either get sucked out on by a flush draw, already be behind a bigger set, or already be behind a made flush a significant amount of the time, The times when you are ahead and hold/boat up make this a more-than-marginal profitable call. I am most concerned with the near insta call, this is a leak in most players games and usually indicates they have the goods. I could see using this as justification for folding, but since it may indicate 33/Ah, I lean towards making the call. I don't play the 55s, so am interested on your thoughts about my ranges.

Max very well thought out. I'll respond to you soon. Essentially what we will be determining from here is pot equity.

[Scuba Chuck]

preflop:

Bosnian71 calls [40]. (any pp/suited connector or gapper/KJ+)
BD2ND calls [40]. (any pp/suited connector or gapper/KJ+)
treadingH20 raises [175]. (AJ+/88+)
BitterFrank calls [175]. (any pp/AQ+)

After the raise, and calls, I would up Bosnian and BD2ND ranges to: any pp/suited connector or gapper/AQ+

Post flop:
Treading H20: Overpair/Ah/99
Bitterfrank: Overpair/Ah/99/Made Flush

TreadingH2O hand range preflop. IME, a tight range for him is QQ+, AQs+. Once I see him shove the flop, I'm certain it's QQ+, AKo (with a heart) and a very rare JJ. Postflop, it's difficult to decide if he'd shove the AK (king of hearts). But I certainly can't put it past him. My point is, we are way way ahead of this guy.

BitterFrank hand range postflop: I can't really put him on a preflop hand range. Postflop, his insta-call, for me, only reveals one thing. It tells me he doesn't have an overpair like TT, JJ, or QQ very often. I think someone with that hand would/might spend a little time thinking on whether they call with that hand. It doesn't mean they won't call with it, it's just my opinion on that hand. Otherwise, he can have a set, a made flush, or the FD. I think because the pot is like 850 chips, the probability of having a FD here is very high. Anyway, just to be sure we include some overpair potential, I will include QQ (with a heart). Anyway, IME, I've seen calls all the way down to A5o in this situation. So I will assume he has the Ah5x+. Also, we really need to play with the fact that he might have a King of hearts, so I will just assume one K of heart hand (and that is K9). Finally, I'll use the following made flush hand range. A5s+, KTs+, QTs+, TJs.

Here's what I get in terms of pot equity:
TreadingH2O: 10%
BitterFrank: 36.5%
Hero: 53.5%

Hand 1: 10.0313 % 09.86% 00.17% { QQ+, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh }
Hand 2: 36.5829 % 36.41% 00.17% { QcQh, QdQh, QhQs, 99, 33, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, KhQh, KhJh, KhTh, QhJh, QhTh, JhTh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs, AhTc, AhTd, AhTs, Ah9c, Ah9d, Ah9s, Ah8c, Ah8d, Ah8s, Ah7c, Ah7d, Ah7s, Ah6c, Ah6d, Ah6s, Kh9c, Kh9d, Kh9s }
Hand 3: 53.3857 % 53.29% 00.10% { 5d5s }

We're getting 2.4:1 to call, meaning we need to win this ~ 29% of the time to be profitable, cEV-wise.

There's a significant argument that we are giving BitterFrank too wide a range of hands. And that may be true, but I'm pretty confident no matter how you slice it, we're going to be awfully close to 50% pot equity here a good percentage of the time.

As to how it played out. It actually turns out that BD2ND also called! So we had 4 allins. I can tell you it's awfully nice having 8,000 chips on L1 in these games. Here were the hands.
treadingH20 Ad Ac
BitterFrank Kh Td
BD2ND 3d 3s