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A Standard Push? (Stars 20+2)

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  1. #1
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    Default A Standard Push? (Stars 20+2)

    I'm only just below 10 BBs here and the table is not really shorthanded, is this still a standard push?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

    BB (t1306)
    UTG (t3612)
    Hero (t1472)
    MP2 (t670)
    CO (t3020)
    Button (t739)
    SB (t2681)

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, J.
    1 fold, Hero...?
  2. #2
    If this is +EV at all (I'm thinking marginally -EV depending on calling ranges) it's gonna be very marginal being MP1 and having almost 10BB.

    I'd fold and look for a bigger +EV spot.
    pulling a courtiebee pŏŏl-ĭng ā kôrt-ē-bē (verb phrase):
    1. overvaluing mid pocket pairs
    2. knowing you should fold, but donkishly calling or raising anyway
  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by daluchy
    If this is +EV at all (I'm thinking marginally -EV depending on calling ranges) it's gonna be very marginal being UTG+1 and having almost 10BB.

    I'd fold and look for a bigger +EV spot.
    agreed. particularly with two short stacks on the table.
    Success is how high you bounce after hitting bottom.


    IslandGrinder
  4. #4
    you'd have to really mess with ranges to make this even marginally +EV.
  5. #5
    fold that. Pushing queens in early position is -EV.
    Operation Learn to Read
    Reads: 7 posted
    Money: $31
    SNGs: 0
    MTTs: 0
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by aleksandr
    fold that. Pushing queens in early position is -EV.
    huh
  7. #7
    sorry. Edit: Pushing queens with deep money EP is -ev. The chance that someone has AQ, KQ, AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ out of the remaining 5 players or better and is calling you and knocking you out is very high here, as well as TT and 99.

    Chances that someone has a particular PP is 1/210 or so, right? Well there's 5 players with AA-JJ calling range, the odds that someone has one of those PPs is 20/210, or about 9:1, and since you have 10xBB, you're push needs about 9:1 folding equity. Add in AK, occasional KQ, AQ calls, I think this is in the long run -EV; you either bust or make a few chips.
    Operation Learn to Read
    Reads: 7 posted
    Money: $31
    SNGs: 0
    MTTs: 0
  8. #8
    In the situation above, if everyone's calling with JJ-AA, pushing QQ is +1.3%. 10xbb is not deep money. If you can find a situation (other than bubble with extreme short stack) where you have 10xBB and it's -EV to push QQ....well then you'll have to prove it because I don't believe.

    If stacks are very deep and calling ranges are very tight (KK+), then pushing QQ can be slightly -EV. From UTG on the first hand of a Stars Sng, using the calling ranges you mentioned, pushing QQ is even money.

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