AQs tough river decision

[bdawg56kg]

Villian seems solid from what I've observed. My image was LAG. I have been getting a lot of playable hands, and have been caught bluffing once or twice. Since then I've settled down, and have been relatively inactive for the last couple orbits. Not sure if anyone has noticed any of this though. What do you put SB on?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG ($237)
Hero ($195.80)
MP1 ($255)
MP2 ($188)
MP3 ($200)
CO ($272.90)
Button ($68.35)
SB ($304.50)
BB ($416.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, A.
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 5 folds, SB calls $7, 1 fold.

Flop: ($18) 2, 4, 6 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, SB calls $12.

Turn: ($42) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($42) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $40, Hero ???

[Fnord]

Easy call.

[nutsinho]

you only beat a bluff, so the most relevant question is what do you know about this opponent

[DaHorror]

You beat much more than a bluff - your check of the turn set up the 'fake weakness' river semi-bluff by opponent. He has KQ or less here often enough to make this as Fnord said an 'easy call'

[ChrisBCritter]

Nothing tough about that. Easy call

[bdawg56kg]

I called. He flipped K K , and I got pwned.

[ChrisBCritter]

I called. He flipped K K , and I got pwned.

meh, results suck. I still call. Horrible trap OOP from the SB there. He got lucky that you had a hand that would call...and didn't beat him.

[Fnord]

I called. He flipped K K , and I got pwned.

How do you figure? KK gave up a lot of value on just about every street up until the river. With the naure of NLHE and raising stakes on each bet street, I think he pwned himself.

[bdawg56kg]

Fnord and Chris. I agree 100%. I was just messing around when I said I got pwned. He played the hand pretty badly, seeing as how he could have got a lot more out of me but failed to, all the while letting me draw to my 9348345 outs for free.

[journey075]

fwiw, i dont call that.

[Fnord]

fwiw, i dont call that.

...because your opponents are too weak to pot the river with hands you beat? Against some people it's a pretty clear tip he's out to buy it after missing something. Against others, he has a hand.

Funny, you posted that after results.

[dsaxton]

Checking the turn seems kind of silly.

[Fnord]

Checking the turn seems kind of silly.

Pot control if we want to show this down and feel there is a big risk of getting c/red on the turn?

I think checking the turn AND folding the river is ludicrus.

[journey075]

fwiw, i dont call that.

...because your opponents are too weak to pot the river with hands you beat? Against some people it's a pretty clear tip he's out to buy it after missing something. Against others, he has a hand.

Funny, you posted that after results.

haha i didnt see the hand until results were posted. unless villain is 30%+ vp$ip im not calling that.

[journey075]

also, since youre so quick to call, what are your hand ranges. im thinking any FH/quads. only hands i consider beating here are JJ/TT and MAYBE KQ.

it plays too much like a monster for me to call. yah its a badly played kings and by all means keep that in mind for future hands, but the way he played it, it reeks of a set.

as i said earlier though, im more inclined to call if his vp is over 30% since at that point its more likely a bluff.

[Fnord]

it plays too much like a monster for me to call. yah its a badly played kings and by all means keep that in mind for future hands

but the way he played it, it reeks of a set.

Because "solid" players only pretty much play pairs out of the SB in that spot?

as i said earlier though, im more inclined to call if his vp is over 30% since at that point its more likely a bluff.

*nod*

[journey075]

THERE REALLY WERE MONSTERS THERE

[bdawg56kg]

Checking the turn seems kind of silly.

dsaxton, I don't think it's a cut and dry decision on whether or not to bet the turn. At times it certainly is the right play, other times not. Here is my reasoning behind the turn check. From 2p2:

"Yeah the turn check behind is definitely a debatable play. I remember reading about a very similar hand in the high stakes NL section a while back, and the reason that the turn check was recommended is because if villian has a set, the last thing you want to do is get blown out of the water with a CR. If he has a flush draw, you want him to stay in. And if he has any other air-ish type hand like a small pocket pair, he'll likely bluff the river or pay off a value bet. But maybe this is not high stakes so this advice is not optimal? "

DJ Sensei responded with a very well thought out post, that I think sums it up well:

"Turn check is a decent line against more aggressive opponents who aren't as likely to pay off value bets, but will bet this river with whatever they have when you check behind the turn, or could checkraise this turn on a bluff. The kind of opponents you are more likely to come across at higher stakes games.
At NL200 full ring, you will get your value bets paid off, people will keep drawing to their flushes on the turn, etc. So, while you save some money against sets, and gain some potential money against aggressive players and bluffers, you lose some immediate value against everything else. Also, it'll be harder to get a whole stack in there on the river if you improve and the pot is still small. "

After looking back I think betting the turn would've been the best play, but checking behind definitely has some merit I think.

I think checking the turn AND folding the river is ludicrus.

Agreed 100%.

[bdawg56kg]

also, since youre so quick to call, what are your hand ranges. im thinking any FH/quads. only hands i consider beating here are JJ/TT and MAYBE KQ.

it plays too much like a monster for me to call. yah its a badly played kings and by all means keep that in mind for future hands, but the way he played it, it reeks of a set.

What basis are you basing your argument on? Just because someone comes out and pots the river, you automatically put him on a monster? From my limited experience at 200NL, in general the players are a lot more aggressive, and not just set hunters. They will put you to tough decisions, often times with pot sized bets. I could respect your argument a little more if you think that the line between folding and calling is a thin one. But instafolding TPTK here to a river pot bet is just begging to get run over IMO.

[journey075]

check/call

check/check

lead for pot..

reeeeeeeeeks of a missed turn check raise that desperately wants to make up for lost money. this changes if his vp is over 30, but i feel like im getting redundant here. you dont want to fold tptk, sure dont.

its how i read the hand though. im just giving you how i interpret his actions with reasons for it. there are probably reasons for calling there too, i just dont really think its worth it.

[bdawg56kg]

Journey, if you are observing the action, what kind of hand do you put me on given my flop + turn line? Do you think I have a good hand with showdown value? Do you think villian needs anything more than 2 cards to bet this river and steal the pot? Despite being out of position, this is a pretty good flop for SB to float the preflop raiser on, agree or not?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to shove this in your face, but I think that it's possible that your game may be too weak/tight at times. I respect your opinion on folding the river, but I'm just pointing out that the chances of villian bluffing this river is NOT small.