Pretty sure I need to value raise here .. how much?

[LeFou]

PokerStars Game #4220180420: Tournament #20978694, Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2006/03/08 - 18:17:52 (ET)
Table '20978694 2' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: 1YDTOGO (1190 in chips)
Seat 2: Homey34 (2930 in chips)
Seat 3: VC10017 (1395 in chips)
Seat 4: KacieR (2275 in chips)
Seat 5: unknown784 (1495 in chips)
Seat 6: Top Gunnar (3195 in chips)
Seat 8: NuWere (1020 in chips)
1YDTOGO: posts small blind 25
Homey34: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to NuWere [Qh Js]
VC10017: folds
KacieR: folds
unknown784: calls 50
Top Gunnar: folds
NuWere: calls 50
1YDTOGO: folds
Homey34: checks
*** FLOP *** [6s 7d Ah]
Homey34: checks
unknown784: checks
NuWere: checks
*** TURN *** [6s 7d Ah] [Qs]
Homey34: bets 50
unknown784: calls 50
NuWere: calls 50
*** RIVER *** [6s 7d Ah Qs] [8c]
Homey34: bets 50
unknown784: folds

[gabe]

calling seems fine

[GatorJH]

with an A out there and 375 in the pot I am happy to call down 2nd pair, especially with a J kicker.

[drmcboy]

what hand do you put him on to call a raise?

[LeFou]

any 6, any 7, lots of pp <Q

[drmcboy]

do you have some incredible donkey read you're not sharing?
no pre flop raise, so maybe 99, which maybe you get a call, I doubt it. 55 calls here? seems like wishful thinking to me. even if a 6/7 might call (which imo is crazy) he's only calling like 100 more, whereas if he raises you with nothing you lose the whole 400 pot.
if you really put him on those hands, the turn was the spot to raise.

[Darby]

There isn't much value if any in raising because unless a total donk, he will fold all hands worse than yours and call with all better ones, unless he raises. Just call and show it down.

[Scuba Chuck]

There isn't much value if any in raising because unless a total donk, he will fold all hands worse than yours and call with all better ones, unless he raises. Just call and show it down.

[LeFou]

do you have some incredible donkey read you're not sharing?

Turn bet looks exploratory. River bet is weak as hell.

no pre flop raise, so maybe 99, which maybe you get a call, I doubt it. 55 calls here? seems like wishful thinking to me.

Well I've been bluffing more than usual, and get those calls from time to time.

even if a 6/7 might call (which imo is crazy) he's only calling like 100 more, whereas if he raises you with nothing you lose the whole 400 pot.

Hmm. I raised to 200 and got a call, then dragged the pot. Wonder what he had; I'll have to look it up

[GatorJH]

Hmm. I raised to 200 and got a call, then dragged the pot. Wonder what he had; I'll have to look it up

I would REALLY like to know what he had that he felt he could call with. Possibly Qx?

[konahead]

If you were going to raise, it should have been on the turn. Raising the river here is just courting trouble. You have absolutely no clue where you stand, because you never asked the question... (by raising earlier).

[Scuba Chuck]

If you were going to raise, it should have been on the turn. Raising the river here is just courting trouble. You have absolutely no clue where you stand, because you never asked the question... (by raising earlier).

How are you thinking this hand through? What's the point of knowing "where you stand" by raising? Pretty sure betting pattern alone here is enough. I'll help. What kind of pot do you want to play for here (big or small)? By raising, what hands do you expect to call? How many of those hands are you ahead of? What's your expected value against that range? Again, how big of a pot do you want to play for against that calling range.

[konahead]

well, you quoted me but I'm not sure if you're asking me these questions, or LeFou. But I personally check this down - I don't bet or raise at it. It's a "small pot" hand, using your verbage, especially with limpers and that river card.

My point was simply that a raise on the river is a bad move - IF you WERE going to raise, the time to do it would have been on the turn, not the river.

[LeFou]

Please don't take this as defensive or argumentative; I really felt this was a straightforward raising spot...

How are you thinking this hand through?

flop checks, clearly no ace out.
Q comes, I don't like my kicker much; way ahead or way behind. Go for overcall.

At the river I'd like a small enough bet that it gets called by worse, but big enough that a raise makes it clear I'm behind.

FWIW, if the guy between us had called, there'd be nothing to think about. Plain old call every time.

By raising, what hands do you expect to call? How many of those hands are you ahead of?

little pp, mostly. Also Qx, unimproved paint maybe. Ah but we have an answer! drum roll....

*** RIVER *** [6s 7d Ah Qs] [8c]
Homey34: bets 50
unknown784: folds
NuWere: raises 200 to 250
Homey34: calls 200
*** SHOW DOWN ***
NuWere: shows [Qh Js] (a pair of Queens)
Homey34: mucks hand
NuWere collected 825 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 825 | Rake 0
Board [6s 7d Ah Qs 8c]
Seat 1: 1YDTOGO (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: Homey34 (big blind) mucked [3s Qc]
Seat 3: VC10017 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: KacieR folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: unknown784 folded on the River
Seat 6: Top Gunnar folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: NuWere (button) showed [Qh Js] and won (825) with a pair of Queens

how big of a pot do you want to play for against that calling range.

Another 200. No more. Fold if reraised, obviously. I don't have the impression this guy can reraise with nothing.

[konahead]

nh - wp. I'm just not sure that a raise there is +ev over the long haul. Probably if it's just you and a fishy big blind, then you'll get calls from weak queens and it's worth it. But previously I've been check-raised and re-raised enough on my river raises when I'm holding a weak hand that I shy away from raising here without a fairly good hand. I'd worry about a rerasie from 4,5...... and you can't call a big reraise with MPMK.