QJo in the BB against AI blind stealer (PS $11)

[taipan168]

Player in the SB here was super aggressive and had pulled off the AI blind steal when folded to in the SB twice already. QJo is about a 60/40 favourite against a random hand. Gamble it up or find a better spot?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG (t1680)
MP (t1830)
Button (t4335)
SB (t4520)
Hero (t1135)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, Q.
3 folds, SB raises to t1050, Hero ?????

[vqc]

I dont htink he has a random hand.

How much has he been raising to to steal ur blinds? Has it always been ~ur stack size?

[taipan168]

How much has he been raising to to steal ur blinds? Has it always been ~ur stack size?

Yep, always enough to put me AI (or close enough).

[vqc]

How much has he been raising to to steal ur blinds? Has it always been ~ur stack size?

Yep, always enough to put me AI (or close enough).

egads
in that case u have zero FE, and it just becomes a SNGPT problem.

[Staresy]

Meh, I think I take a stand here.

This is based solely on the big stack pushing me around. You are going to be down to ~6 BB's once you post your SB if you fold this, but you still have BullyBoy in stealing position, so what is to stop him doing it again? I would if I were him!!

QJo, whilst not particularly powerful, I accept, I personally think, in these circumstances, is worth taking the gamble with.

[mcatdog]

Just because he's put you all-in a few times in a row doesn't mean he'd be doing it with any two cards. He might only be doing it with his top 75% of hands, and folding the rest, and it just happened that a few times in a row he wasn't dealt total junk. Eliminating those bottom 25% of hands will make a drastic difference in the equity of a hand like QJo.

Then again, he may be doing it with any two cards. I know of at least one player who always pushes from the SB when he or the BB has 5 or fewer big blinds left. I called him once with K5 and he had 32.

[taipan168]

OK, it turns out that (this time) SB wasn't pushing with a random hand, he had 99 which held up. That said, I'm not unhappy with the call - the pot is laying me 1.3 to 1 odds and I'm 1.2 to 1 against to win so I'm getting better than the correct price.

I guess the risk is that I run up against something that has me dominated, but given SB's behaviour to date I think I have to take my chances here.

[andy-akb]

These are always situations I hate to be in, because if villain has ANY K or A you are a dog, I would much rather be pushing with this hand than calling a push, I think its a marginal call. However, I am very unsure how to play hands like this myself, so any insight into the reasoning of why or why not to call here would be greatly appreciated.

[zenbitz]

Just because he's put you all-in a few times in a row doesn't mean he'd be doing it with any two cards. He might only be doing it with his top 75% of hands, and folding the rest, and it just happened that a few times in a row he wasn't dealt total junk. Eliminating those bottom 25% of hands will make a drastic difference in the equity of a hand like QJo.

QJo vs random: 58.14%
QJo vs hands with > 40% eq vs random: 56.28%
QJo vs hands with > 45% eq vs random: 53.41%

Top 75% of hands is somewhere between 40-45% EQ vs random. So, this is a DUH call unless the blinds are miniscule.

Then again, he may be doing it with any two cards. I know of at least one player who always pushes from the SB when he or the BB has 5 or fewer big blinds left. I called him once with K5 and he had 32.

I saw a short stack BB CALL a SB push with 45s! (hint: never do this) He lost to 68o.

[vqc]

This is -$EV when the vilian is shoving (hes pretty much shoving here, I dont think hes ever folding) 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s

at 60%
22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J5o+,J2s+,T7o+,T5s+,98o,96s+,87s
Your at +0.1%

any looser and u just get more postive.

[drmcboy]

push the hand before this instead.

[Scuba Chuck]

Whoa, you have 6.5 BBs behind yet. The third place stack is not horribly ahead of you. And, most importantly, you have phenomenal table position. Are you sure you have the correct mindset right now?

[taipan168]

Whoa, you have 6.5 BBs behind yet. The third place stack is not horribly ahead of you. And, most importantly, you have phenomenal table position. Are you sure you have the correct mindset right now?

Thanks Scuba, this is an interesting question you have asked. Is the following what you mean:
- MUCH better to be pushing with this than calling AI
- The two next shortest stacks are on my left, they can be bullied by me
- Even if I double up here the SB will still be 2nd biggest stack and will still have me outstacked
- Better to be tangling with the two short-medium stacks rather than one of the big stacks
- QJo is a marginal hand with which to be calling an AI, even if the SB is pushing with random hands.

push the hand before this instead.

Yes, I should have. I picked up 87s UTG and dumped it - the 6th place finisher pushed with A8o which would have had me dominated and one of the big stacks called with QTo, but three of my suit came on the board . Anyway, results are irrelevant, I should have pushed it nonetheless.

This is an aspect of my game that I'm having trouble with - when to push when I'm shortstacked and it's folded to me and when to find a better spot.