PP (lower than KK) vs AK late in tournament

[LordDrg7]

Three times I've been in position to take the lead by a great margin with ~30 players left in a 180 person $20+2 on Pokerstars, and 3 times I've lost with pp vs AK.

I know in a cash game, it would seem more profitable in the long run to play the pp vs AK, most of the hands I've run have put it at a 55 : 45 favorite, little more than a coinflip. In the long run, I should come out ahead if I'm consistently making the same play.

The problem is, I get these marginal pocket pairs late in a tournament, and regardless of whether or not I call or raise, somebody inevitably winds up pushing on AK. Based on the way they've been playing, I know for a fact that they haven't got any better than AK (maybe AT through AQ, but unlikely), and 3 out of 3 times I've been right on the money. The result: QQ, JJ, and 88, all taken out by AK.

Is it wrong to call a preflop all-in with those hands? Before everyone tells me to get out, I would obviously fold them if the all-in came as a reraise to someone else that I felt was a threat to push. But in my cases, I knew the push to be a defensive move rather than an offensive move, mainly to steal the blinds and a couple of callers before they see a flop. I'm having a hard time justifying tournament play as "long term," though.

What it really boils down to, is, as stated above, do you call an all-in with a pocket pair less than KK if you are 99% sure they're holding AK? If you need any more information than I've given you, please, let me know.

edit: it looked like I was calling AT-AQ a better hand above...I didn't mean it like that..meant that I put them on AK because I doubt they'd push with an even lesser hand, and I don't put them on a pp at all

[drmcboy]

stack sizes/postions/blinds?

I don't put them on a pp at all

eh

The idea that you 'know' AK isn't TT is silly.

With the QQ, with no other info, I would typically call. not because I 'know' it's AK and I'm a 55/45 fav, but because I think it's likely a flip OR they have JJ or less and I'm fairly sure it's not KK/AA. With JJ, I call less often. With 88, less often. With 22, never. Because with 22, you're always either the 55/45ish or totally hammered.

[ChezJ]

i guarantee you would not be asking this question if you had won 1-2 of those 3 cointoss situations.

[gregor]

don't be results oriented... you can;'t get cute late in the tournament only to get scared by any flopped over card...

You push, and you are either a marginal favorite, or a huge favorite if you get called by the donk with the raggy ace...

bottom line, you need to win those showdowns to win money... sucks when it doesn't happen... i went through a run where i lost 8 straight touraments, 3 with pp vs 2 overs as you described, and 5 having AQ v Arag, and the guy donking me on the rag...

i had the same questions, was i searching out races i shouldn't be? in some cases i think i was, being over aggressive with low PP... but with the hands you are talking about, depends on the scenario, but you have to raise with those hands, and if it gets to a race, well so be it, hopefully the edge holds...

Last 8 tournaments i've placed first in 6, second in 1, and DNP in one... $100 ps sng....

bottom line, play your game... don't be results oriented because it'll swing both ways...