Do you make this call?

[Sprayed]

These guys have been really loose and playing weak marginal hands. Do you get it all in here? I figure a set is out there somewhere and someone may have a pair or two. I was afraid of a higher flush draw and they are pushing hoping to hit. Should I have taken a stab at it when first to act or was the check the best play?

Game #1373750488 - Tournament Pina - 100/200 No Limit Texas Hold'em -
2006/03/25-20:16:36.7 (CST)
Table "Pina 100" (MTT) -- Seat 10 is the button
Seat 1: ANDREASMAR (4,375 in chips)
Seat 2: Sprayed (7,205 in chips)
Seat 3: Tomcal55 (2,595 in chips)
Seat 4: bwarden (7,505 in chips)
Seat 5: TURK09 (870 in chips)
Seat 6: bagman27 (4,385 in chips)
Seat 7: wild crazy (4,910 in chips)
Seat 8: *TheHawk* (2,180 in chips)
Seat 9: tojamer (7,115 in chips)
Seat 10: f(x)money (9,440 in chips)
Sprayed : Ante (25)
Tomcal55: Ante (25)
bwarden : Ante (25)
TURK09 : Ante (25)
bagman27: Ante (25)
wild crazy: Ante (25)
*TheHawk*: Ante (25)
tojamer : Ante (25)
f(x)money: Ante (25)
ANDREASMAR: Ante (25)
ANDREASMAR: Post Small Blind (100)
Sprayed : Post Big Blind (200)
Dealing...
Dealt to Sprayed [ Qc ]
Dealt to Sprayed [ Tc ]
wild crazy said, "nb"
Tomcal55: Call (200)
bwarden : Fold
TURK09 : Fold
bagman27: Fold
wild crazy: Call (200)
bagman27 said, "ty"
*TheHawk*: Fold
tojamer : Call (200)
f(x)money: Raise (400)
ANDREASMAR: Fold
Sprayed : Call (200)
Tomcal55: Call (200)
wild crazy: Call (200)
tojamer : Call (200)
*** FLOP *** : [ 7c Kh 6c ]
Sprayed : Check
Tomcal55: Check
wild crazy: Bet (4,485)
tojamer : Raise All-in (6,690)
f(x)money: Call (6,690)
Sprayed ??

[WildBobAA]

No, it's likely one of them has the Acxc.

[Sprayed]

Stove is telling me that I have a 47% chance. Is this enough of an edge to call?

[WildBobAA]

47% chance vs what hands?

All I know is that you only have 400 invested and there's a good chance your drawing nearly dead.

[Sprayed]

47% chance vs what hands?

All I know is that you only have 400 invested and there's a good chance your drawing nearly dead.

I should have waited until others post to put that up there. I understand your point and I was thinking the same thing. I was also thinking at the time that I may have an edge and I should take advantage of it.

[drmcboy]

yeah if you knew draw was good, you'd be all over it. Almost impossible to believe it is, though.

it would be a set, btw.

[Sprayed]

yeah if you knew draw was good, you'd be all over it. Almost impossible to believe it is, though.

it would be a set, btw.

Right, thx. Threw this up kind of fast. Corrected. So you're going with a fold?

[WildBobAA]

If you had the NFD then this is an easy call but without it, I'm laying ti down.

[mcatdog]

Well the question is, what percentage of the time are you up against a higher flush draw? Once we make that guess, it's just a math problem. Here are the two most common situations as far as I can tell.

Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7c 6c Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 6d 560 68.29 260 31.71 0 0.00 0.683
As Ks 0 0.00 811 98.90 9 1.10 0.005
Ad Kd 0 0.00 811 98.90 9 1.10 0.005
Qc Tc 251 30.61 569 69.39 0 0.00 0.306

Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7c 6c Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 6d 610 74.39 210 25.61 0 0.00 0.744
As Ks 15 1.83 805 98.17 0 0.00 0.018
Ac 2c 170 20.73 650 79.27 0 0.00 0.207
Qc Tc 25 3.05 795 96.95 0 0.00 0.030

You need to win the pot well over 20% of the time for this call to be profitable, so you'd have to not be up against a higher flush draw, significantly more than 2/3 of the time, to make this call. I think the higher flush draw is out there at least 1/3 so it's a clear fold unless I messed up my math.

[Sprayed]

Well the question is, what percentage of the time are you up against a higher flush draw? Once we make that guess, it's just a math problem. Here are the two most common situations as far as I can tell.

Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7c 6c Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 6d 560 68.29 260 31.71 0 0.00 0.683
As Ks 0 0.00 811 98.90 9 1.10 0.005
Ad Kd 0 0.00 811 98.90 9 1.10 0.005
Qc Tc 251 30.61 569 69.39 0 0.00 0.306

Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 7c 6c Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 6d 610 74.39 210 25.61 0 0.00 0.744
As Ks 15 1.83 805 98.17 0 0.00 0.018
Ac 2c 170 20.73 650 79.27 0 0.00 0.207
Qc Tc 25 3.05 795 96.95 0 0.00 0.030

You need to win the pot well over 20% of the time for this call to be profitable, so you'd have to not be up against a higher flush draw, significantly more than 2/3 of the time, to make this call. I think the higher flush draw is out there at least 1/3 so it's a clear fold unless I messed up my math.

Thanks for the numbers. It puts a better picture on it for me. Here's how it played out. Needless to say I was feeling a little results oriented. Seeing what these guys held also made me think that I might have missed an opportunity. Like I said in the original post, these guys were terrible so I thought that they could be pushing with utter garbage.

Sprayed : Check
Tomcal55: Check
wild crazy: Bet (4,485)
tojamer : Raise All-in (6,690)
f(x)money: Call (6,690)
Sprayed : Fold
Tomcal55: Fold
*** TURN *** : [ 7c Kh 6c ] [ 3c ]
*** RIVER *** : [ 7c Kh 6c 3c ] [ Ah ]
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 15,805 | Side pot 1: 4,410 | Board: [ 7c Kh 6c 3c Ah ]
ANDREASMAR lost 125 (folded)
Sprayed lost 425 (folded) [ Qc Tc ] (a flush, queen high)
Tomcal55 lost 425 (folded)
bwarden lost 25 (folded)
TURK09 lost 25 (folded)
bagman27 lost 25 (folded)
wild crazy lost 4,910 (showed hand) [ 7s Ts ] (a pair of sevens)
*TheHawk* lost 25 (folded)
tojamer bet 7,115, collected 20,215, net +13,100 (showed hand) [ 6d 6s ]
(three of a kind, sixes)
f(x)money lost 7,115 (showed hand) [ Js Jd ] (a pair of jacks)

[chardrian]

I agree with everyone else. If you knew your draw was the good, it's an instacall. So the real question comes down to whether or not your draw is probably good.

It's an ugly and weird hand. You have limpers galore and then a minraise preflop which everyone hopped on to. So you can put your opp's on .... basically nothing.

On the flop with two different draws you have three guys in front who are basically all putting you all-in. Call and win and you quadruple up!!! But what the hell are three opp's going all-in for?

The pot is big enough that wildcrazy might just be bluffing. But tojamer and fx have got to have hands here. Fx was the one who minraised preflop, so I would be mighty scared of AK from him and he could easily have AcKc. tojamer could have the same. I just see the Ac flush draww or the K hi flush draw as being really possible out there (e.g. JcKc).

I think you gotta fold this and not let the club affect you when it does hit.

If you are unable to let a good fold that hits not effect you, then poker is probably not your game.

[Sprayed]

I agree with everyone else. If you knew your draw was the good, it's an instacall. So the real question comes down to whether or not your draw is probably good.

It's an ugly and weird hand. You have limpers galore and then a minraise preflop which everyone hopped on to. So you can put your opp's on .... basically nothing.

On the flop with two different draws you have three guys in front who are basically all putting you all-in. Call and win and you quadruple up!!! But what the hell are three opp's going all-in for?

The pot is big enough that wildcrazy might just be bluffing. But tojamer and fx have got to have hands here. Fx was the one who minraised preflop, so I would be mighty scared of AK from him and he could easily have AcKc. tojamer could have the same. I just see the Ac flush draww or the K hi flush draw as being really possible out there (e.g. JcKc).

I think you gotta fold this and not let the club affect you when it does hit.

If you are unable to let a good fold that hits not effect you, then poker is probably not your game.

Even if it's not my game, I can't give it up because I'm addicted Even if the 3c didn't hit I would have still been asking myself. But, it seems that the consensus is fold and the evidence that has been listed supports that. I know what I will do next time, call....I mean fold.

[chardrian]

Even if it's not my game, I can't give it up because I'm addicted

I'm with you there. I have had serious talks with my wife about this, as she is concerned I am actually addicted.

And at this point, she might be right. I can't imagine giving up poker right now - I like it too much and I am playing with other's money.

It's making sure that I don't neglect the otehr parts of my life that is important.

[drmcboy]

the difference between passionate and addicted is wanting or needing to stop.

[Sprayed]

the difference between passionate and addicted is wanting or needing to stop.

Good point. I'll have to tell my wife, parents, friends, and boss at work (not to be confused with boss at home) that. Do you think they'll buy it?

[drmcboy]

honestly? No. But it's a good place to start, as long as they don't have a good reason why you should stop. Personally I would tell everyone but your wife to stick it, who cares what they think, you're laughing your way to the bank. If your friends are holding interventions for you, either alarm bells should be going off, or they suck.

If the wife has a problem with it, address that pronto, it's the most +EV thing you can do, in and out of poker. If you're sitting in the last stage of a MTT worrying she'll be pissed you missed dinner/chores/whatever, or if you're playing under your roll so as not to lose 'too much' for her sake, that's no good.

[Sprayed]

honestly? No. But it's a good place to start, as long as they don't have a good reason why you should stop. Personally I would tell everyone but your wife to stick it, who cares what they think, you're laughing your way to the bank. If your friends are holding interventions for you, either alarm bells should be going off, or they suck.

If the wife has a problem with it, address that pronto, it's the most +EV thing you can do, in and out of poker. If you're sitting in the last stage of a MTT worrying she'll be pissed you missed dinner/chores/whatever, or if you're playing under your roll so as not to lose 'too much' for her sake, that's no good.

Well, she's cool for now because I'm bring in some money and that means more shoes for her. When I hit the skids she'll probably be questioning whether poker is a good thing.