What is your move....

[Laeelin]

Blinds(50/100)
Total number of players : 6
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero(BB) [ :Ad: :Kd: ]
fold, folds, folds, fold.
SB calls [50].
Hero(BB) raises [200].
SB calls [200].
** Dealing Flop ** [ :Jh:, , ]
SB is all-In [3885]

My read: SB wants to me force me to fold. I dont think he would push with nothing(and I dont think he would push with a good hand.. he would want to trap me as the preflop raiser).
He either has the flush draw, the straight draw, or a small pair.

I win I'm the huge chipleader... the problem is that if I lose I'm out...

Actions:
Fold: 2600 chips left, but not even close to life support.
Call-lose: 0 chips (out)
Call-win: 7085 chips (huge chipleader)

[nogenius]

I need stack sizes to better answer the question.

Also, has SB ever open-pushed the flop before?

[andy-akb]

If that is the range you put villain on, you are ahead. It would be helpful to see all the stack sizes. Anyways, I havent played any SNGs for awhile and Im not too proficient with ICM, but it comes down to how valuable the chips are at this point of the tournament. I could see it going either way as you are a favorite against villains range and would be able to make it into the money easily if you won, but also you have a healthy stack if you fold. Id like tos ee input from some of the more experienced SNGers

[taipan168]

Proviso - I think you play at a higher level than I do, my experience is from the PS $5.50s and $11s.

That said, I dump this - I don't mind pushing it but I don't like calling with it. If your read is that opp wouldn't do this without having caught some piece of the flop or a small-med PP then you are a 35/65 underdog to hit the flush and aren't getting the pot odds to call. Plus as you say, if you fold you have 2600 chips so aren't even close to being shortstacked, I think I wait for a better opportunity.

Plus, straight draw is unlikely - I could see opp pushing an OESD but there are only gutshot possibilities on this board.

[zarry]

Well I tried to put him on a decent range giving him benefeit of the doubt more hands then he would have and this is what your lookin at...

122,760 games 0.062 secs 1,980,000 games/sec

Board: Jh 4d 8d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 52.3648 % 52.36% 00.01% { AdKd }
Hand 2: 47.6352 % 47.63% 00.01% { 22+, AJs, A8s, A4s, KJs, K8s, K4s, QTs+, JTs, AJo, KJo, QTo+ }


So theoretically you are a favorite, and if you look at it a little more if hes on the flush draw your fine... if he is chasin a straight he has 2 less outs due to the diamonds which flush you... realistically your lookin at about 15 outs...

I think this is a fold... he could easily be holding trips, 2 pair, which would would reduce you to 9 outs and frankly I wouldnt gamble when your still in a fine position

[Staresy]

I dump this - I want to be the one pushing this not calling with it. If your read is that opp wouldn't do this without having caught some piece of the flop or a small-med PP then you are a 35/65 underdog to hit the flush and aren't getting the pot odds to call.

yes, but if that's the case, our hero here also has 3 Aces and 3 Kings in the deck, making this a coinflip. However, I do agree that I would much rather be the one pushing than calling the push.

Plus, straight draw is unlikely - I could see opp pushing an OESD but there are only gutshot possibilities on this board.

Villian could hold 9T for an OESD. It might fit the limp and call of a raise in a blind-on-blind match up because he is determined to see the flop.

[Laeelin]

Assume my read on this guy is perfect. I wasnt guessing what he had. I was sure what he had... I've played with him before.

[nogenius]

Assume my read on this guy is perfect. I wasnt guessing what he had. I was sure what he had... I've played with him before.

I would call then, but how eager I am to call depends on whether this is a Stars or Party sng.

[Laeelin]

I think this is a fold... he could easily be holding trips, 2 pair, which would would reduce you to 9 outs and frankly I wouldnt gamble when your still in a fine position

I had at least 15 outs. No way did he have anything better than a draw or one pair (and not top pair).. he is a player that thinks he is sneaky... but isnt :P

This guy would stay in with anything, and will go broke with bottom pair in a blind battle... (FIY, he had 94o)

I did end up calling, but looking back I wonder if I should have folded.

My thinking was that at worse i'm 50/50, so i'm sure that i'm getting the pot odds... But at best I'm not a huge favorite either... and...

It's for all my chips.

[taipan168]

Villian could hold 9T for an OESD. It might fit the limp and call of a raise in a blind-on-blind match up because he is determined to see the flop.

Ah yes I missed that. Also missed the 6 extra outs with the As and Ks

Assume my read on this guy is perfect. I wasnt guessing what he had. I was sure what he had... I've played with him before.

I guess this uncertainty is what leads me to folding. Sometimes I push or make a massive overbet with strong hands if I think my opps will think "no way he would do that with 2 pair/trips - he is FOS".

I guess at the end of the day whether I want to call a 50/50 depends on my assessment of my ability to outplay my opponents and win if I fold. At the lower levels play is often poor enough that I don't need to take these chances.

[Laeelin]

I guess this uncertainty is what leads me to folding. Sometimes I push or make a massive overbet with strong hands if I think my opps will think "no way he would do that with 2 pair/trips - he is FOS".

yeah, but i wasnt in the hand with you

I often do that as well... in fact thats what busted me in the SnG before that one... Pushed with top two pair on a board with a flush draw... bottom pair called and triped up on the river.

[Laeelin]

I don't need to take these chances.

Exactly my thinking (after calling)

[ProZachNation]

Ill call here under the impression that an ace or king is a clean out.

[Trikflow77]

this is a fold.......and an easy one with 2600 behind and the blinds 50/100. I dont think its that close.

[Stagemn]

There's allot of variabbles here.

1. How close are you to being ITM? Not ITM = Fold. ITM = Call

2. What kind of and how good are your reads on him? Is he Loose or Tight? Aggressive or Passive normally?

3. You have 15 outs (9 are a A-high flush). This puts you at @ 60% chance of hitting, but only @ 36% chance of hitting the flush.

4. If he has J8 or J4 (unlikely a 84), then you only have the 9 outs or a running trip to save you.

5. You raised a min bet, I would've called you. Trying to steal by called SB on a min raise is worth a call, even if I have a 73. Should've raised it 3xBB or more. You might've gooten him to fold. Only limping with AKs on the BB is asking fo rmore trouble. You want to play someone with somewhat a decent starting hand to get a better picture of what he is trully holding.

6. I hate bluffers... but now isn't the time to stick the sword in him. If the Jack was a diamond, a definite call right way. Gotta fold.

[drmcboy]

this is sick, you must call.

He either has the flush draw, the straight draw, or a small pair.

you're a favorite against 2/3 and a flip vs the other... CALL!!!!

Would you all be folding 88 because you might be a flip against Td9d? Yikes.

[givememyleg]

This is a tough decision. My initial response was fold but it really depends on villian here. It is for almost all your chips if you a lose, and a huge lead if you win... but I just don't see myself gambling yet. I would most likely fold.

[Laeelin]

You raised a min bet, I would've called you.

I did NOT mini bet.

I made my standard raise.. to 3BB's

[vqc]

AFter all this has anyone done an ICM calc by hand yet?
Just to give a little idea as to wat the chips are worth right now?

[Scuba Chuck]

this is a fold.......and an easy one with 2600 behind and the blinds 50/100. I dont think its that close.

I tend to agree with this, and I think you should be raising to 400 next time, not 300. If you had raised this to 500 pf, and had the same scenario, I would have a hard time folding (as I doubt SB has 2 pair, and I think that our king is live often enough - implying SB does not have KJ or AJ).

Given the way the hand played, I have my reservations that calling here is even marginally +EV anyhow.

[drmcboy]

are you guys saying you don't believe the read, or that you're folding to small pair/SD/FD?

[Scuba Chuck]

are you guys saying you don't believe the read, or that you're folding to small pair/SD/FD?

The problem with the read is that it's ...a read. You are asking me to believe his read (100% that is). I would be willing to give it more weight had hero not also have the FD.

[drmcboy]

That's cool. If read provided I think we should assume it's correct, we don't have a read. But either way is fine. I just couldn't believe anyone would fold with the range given.

[kstarm]

For me it depends on the buy-in/number of tables/how many until ITM -if it was posted I missed it. Based on the blinds it must be early though in the $5 sngs (1 table) usually 3 are gone by now. At the low buy-ins I call loosing I just fire up another with no real dent in the BR, winning which at worst we'll say we have a 36% chance of doing will put me in the driver seat to 1 or 2 where the real money is. Fighting the rest of the way for a 3-x finish or worse doesn't sound appealing-that is just me and how I play poker. A lot of times we get caught up in the cards and %, but I think it is worth looking at the bigger picture sometimes ie how important is this game to my poker career, and BR. You have made your read on the player and it sounds that you are confident in it, usually our reads are correct (how many times have I said I should dump these KK pre-flop-only to call and see AA) I think this becomes more of a personal decision then a statistical one are you the type of player who will take a coin-flip (based on your read) for a chance at big money? I would but again that is me.

[Stagemn]

My bad bro. I misread it. Thought it said raised to 200. My apologies.

I like 4xBB better. 3xBB is too standard, a 4xBB raise makes you have to decide more.

[midas06]

My bad bro. I misread it. Thought it said raised to 200. My apologies.

I like 4xBB better. 3xBB is too standard, a 4xBB raise makes you have to decide more.

???

Explain please

[zenbitz]

I think this is a call because I think you have 15 outs. Plus the possibility that he makes this move with 2 lower diamonds and no jack.

It's think, becuase he might make a similar move with a set/two pair... but I doubt it. I put him on a single pair or draw (like you did).

There is no reason for him to push this hard at this pot against you - EXCEPT to make you fold a draw, 4, or 8, or mid pocket.

[Laeelin]

This was a $22 or $33 SnG (forget which)

One table

top 3 are ITM.

I dont rember exactly what the stacks were, but something like 2k, 2k, 4k + me and the SB.

As for the read... You know how every once in a while you get someone that you know that "this move" in "that situation" is because they have "thoes cards"? I'm not saying that I would be able to him like that in other situations, I just know what it means when he makes that move in that situation.

I would have been willing to lay 10 to 1 odds that my read was right on what he had.

Ignoreing my read in your reply doesnt help me at all.

Assume (for this thread) that it is rock solid.

What is the best move?

I know that calling is +EV(chips), but +EV(chips) isnt always +EV($$) in a SnG/MTT.

Thats what has unsure about the correct move.

Is the reward greater than the risk?

[Scuba Chuck]

Assume (for this thread) that it is rock solid.

What is the best move?

I don't even know why you're asking then. Then, yes call, your air is better than his air. Your draw is better than his draw. Whatever draw he has, he has fewer outs than he thought. This is +EV in any form of the value. If your read is rock solid, then this isn't even really a worthwhile post then.