A8 in sb on bubble

[zarry]

Villian is a good player... mostly TAG made a great play into me for half my chips earlier in tournament... I can easily see him holding Kx other card being medium or high card possibly KQ, i could even see him with Ax thinking i missed... i did min bet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP (t4450)
Button (t8335)
Hero (t6275)
Villain (t4905)
UTG (t3035)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 8.
3 folds, Hero completes, Villain checks.

Flop: (t1400) K, A, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t800, Villain raises to t4055, Hero ???????.

[daluchy]

Push pre-flop...for real. A8 in the SB with 800 blinds and 8BB stack = money. I'd be pushing alot of hands in that SB...almost any 2 perhaps.

That and it prevents problems like this. You run into problems being short stacked with a big pot and a marginally good hand.

That being said, it's hard to tell since his hand was not defined. BB flush special? I may fold, I'd hate to be drawing dead.

[Staresy]

Top Pair, but no real kicker and no heart. I'm done here.

[givememyleg]

I agree with daluchy here, preflop push. He could make this play with any heart, or possibily he flopped a lucky 2 pair? I would fold if I was you.. If I have learned anything from bubble play, preflop agression with hands like you have is key. In January my ITM% was a terrible 22% and I finished 4th place 27% (5th place 17%). I was afraid of not making it ITM. Most people do not want to get involved without a big hand so if they're tight, take over.

[drmcboy]

flop - why would you min bet? You're just BEGGING him to do this with something like the Q or Jh. As played, you must call, but don't play it this way. Raise pre flop, push flop, gg. Limping then min bettting here just makes no sense at all.

[zarry]

I agree the flop play was horrible, but I have no problem limping a8 off from sb costs very little i spike an ace without a 3 suited flop im a HEAVY favorite and i push flop... minimize my chips spent on a medial hand on the bubble, I am in a fine position here and have no problem laying down the flop...
That is actually what i did and ended up outplaying them and taking down first

But thank you for getting this at the bottom and bringing it up i appreciate it because i have been replying a lot and my posts just drop down :/ lol

[zarry]

I was doing some thinking about this hand after I just posted, and I honestly can not see pushing this preflop as a +EV move... The fact is I picked a reasonable range that I would recieve a call...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

119,861,280 games 0.281 secs 426,552,597 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.8107 % 25.93% 01.88% { Ac8d }
Hand 2: 72.1893 % 70.30% 01.88% { TT+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }


I cant see how picking up 800 chips 80% of the time affects my stack that much to dramtically catapult me into first or second or guarentee i wont bubble... as apposed to the 20% I get called with 1 of those hands and are a big underdog and end up getting crippled on the bubble...

lets do some math...
25% I win so 25% of 20% so I take a huge chip lead 5% of the time.. and almost guarentee myself first or second with solid play there on leaving an avg profit of around 80$ leaving room for those cases where i catch a bad beat and bust 3 or 4...

so 15% of the time I lose and end up bubbling with my measly stack... therfore negative 16$

so 80% of the time i pick up 800 chips and am still a player for first second but third and fourth are now also more viable options since I am not a huge chip lead blinds go around i dont get hands its very plasuable that i can take 3rd 4th and even still possibly bust small but its possible so lets take all the prizes and add up and -16 and find the avg money i would win...
108 + 81 + 54 + 27 - 15 = 63.75


so 5% i win 80$
so 15% I lose 16$
so 80% I win 63$

So if i do this 100 times... 80 x 5 = 400 / 15 x 16 = 240 / and 80 x 63 = 5040 / 5040 + 400 - 240 = 5200$

So i guess this play is very +EV :/ Who looks like a jackass now? Myself

Someone correct me if im wrong though it was very rough numbers i havent slept yet and im sure something is off but itsj ust a rough example so I guess i should push in this situation...