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weak hand with a good read

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  1. #1

    Default weak hand with a good read

    Here is a hand from a 27 player $5.00 MTT on poker stars.

    Normally I don't play this loosely, but I felt that the pot odds were very good to see the flop.

    My read on the Villain was that he was a donkey - he had been in a lot of pots and always raising and stealing. One hand in particular after alot of raising and reraising with the chip leader he ended calling an all-in on the flop of 7-K-10 rainbow with pocket 8s !

    So after he scared everyone else out of this pot, I felt that I was ahead.

    My question is, is it worth it at this stage of the tourney to get into this kind of a scrap with such a fragile hand where lots can go wrong ? Or would a good player pass up a read and give up the pot and wait for a better opportunity?

    Obviously, I would not have been this aggressive against an average player, but are there any signs here, which even from a maniac, say "STOP" ?

    Even though I consider him to be a donkey, looking at this hand in hind-sight - I was certainly no better.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

    UTG (t725)
    MP (t985)
    CO (t4410)
    Button (t2705)
    Hero (t1845)
    BB =(Villain)/ (t2830)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with J, 3.
    UTG calls t50, 1 fold, CO calls t50, Button calls t50, Hero completes, BB =(Villain)/ checks.

    Flop: (t250) 7, J, 5 (5 players)
    Hero checks, Villain bets t150, UTG folds, CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises to t300, Villain calls t150.

    Turn: (t850) 6 (2 players)
    Hero checks, Villain bets t750, Hero raises to t1495, Villain calls t745.

    River: (t3840) 4 (2 players)

    Final Pot: t3840
  2. #2
    Make a real raise on the flop, he can call that with anything, most notably the FD, and now you have no idea where you are.

    There are plenty of draws out he could be making a play with, so I don't think it's terrible to get the chips in here. But I'd rather get them in re raising for real on the flop, or then maybe pushing turn. You never really gave him a chance to fold. He may have hated his JT on the turn, but he can't fold it now.
  3. #3
    I'm fine with showing this down given the read, but I don't much see the point of the repeated check-raises, especially when you basically min-re-raised. Once he calls the flop, you should either play for a fairly cheap showdown or let it go IMO. Given your read, I probably bet/fold the tur, though I don't hate bet/call.
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  4. #4
    chardrian's Avatar
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    yup, minraises suck, especially against donkeys/calling stations when you have a very vulnerable hand.

    If you think you are ahead on the flop, bet big enough to make sure that you are giving you opp bad odds to call for any draw. Your minraise gives your so called donkey odds to call with almost any hand.
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