5/10 thin value bet

[gabe]

someone told me the game was soft, so i took a shot..

im new to table so no image..
villian took a while to call the flop, thougts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Button ($855)
SB ($967.25)
BB ($980)
UTG ($1104.74)
UTG+1 ($590)
MP1 ($2436.25)
Hero ($1000)
CO ($500)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9, 9. SB posts a blind of $5.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $45, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $35.

Flop: ($105) 2, 2, T (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $75, UTG+1 calls $75.

Turn: ($255) K (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($255) T (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $100

[drmcboy]

I guess the question is does he raise with air more often than he calls with 88 or A high... with no read I'm tempted to just check but I don't think the bet is bad. It's a pretty tough board for him to CR.

[ilikeaces86]

I dont like it.

[gabe]

I dont like it.

why? hes not folding ace high or a PP, and thats what it looks like he has after his flop call (something like 33 or Adxd)

[Bmxicle]

if you really want to show it down check call.

[twosevoff]

if you really want to show it down check call.

Reread hand history, he was in position. It's either check behind or bet.

[gabe]

hes not folding ace high or a small pair and theres not that many hands that beat me

[drmcboy]

if you know he's calling with those, why would you post this?

[gabe]

those are my assumptions against the average unknown

[drmcboy]

i think most people fold A high for sure, and lots fold PP <TT. No reason for him not to give you AK or AT here.

[PO$$E$$ED]

I think your value bet is very thin against an average unknown at 5/10, default play would be to check behind. If you have a read though this play can be justified.

[gabe]

you guys are crazy..wtf does he have that beats me? i cant think of a hand that he could play this way that beats me except KQd maybe

[drmcboy]

wtf does he have to CALL you is the question. like I said, if you really think A high calls, obv you bet, quit posting when you already know the answer. Your e penis is massive, gg.

[gabe]

i think ive started lots of threads where i think i know the answer. sometimes i learn something when it starts a discussion, other times it helps other people in the discussion.

sorry if it pissed you off.......

[drmcboy]

[dsaxton]

those are my assumptions against the average unknown

They aren't very good assumptions. With no information on a player's calling standards (that is, he is assumed to be a typical player who is not bad enough to call with ace high or a small pair), this bet loses money.

If you're so confident he both has a worse hand and will call with it, how is this a "thin" value bet anyways? I'm guessing you posted this so people would agree with the title so that you could disagree with them.

[gabe]

They aren't very good assumptions. With no information on a player's calling standards (that is, he is assumed to be a typical player who is not bad enough to call with ace high or a small pair), this bet loses money.

If you're so confident he both has a worse hand and will call with it, how is this a "thin" value bet anyways? I'm guessing you posted this so people would agree with the title so that you could disagree with them.

-i make calls with ace high and small pairs all day that are +EV. most players make the same calls.
-the bet loses money? if you break down his range and what he calls with, i think this bet makes alot of money. feel free to elaborate.
-i thougt this was an example of a good thin value bet. i posted it to see what others thought.
-for most players this isn't standard, but one of the marks of great players is making thin value bets. you can either help discuss it, or you can keep analyzing my reasons for making this thread. i dont really care either way.

[Irisheyes]

What could he put you on to call with A high here?

[gabe]

he could put me on ace high

[johnny_fish]

he could put me on ace high

You think he could have AQ/AJ/A9 and think you have that too? Unlikely.

I agree you'll get some calls of 66-88. A tricky AT/TT could maybe make those checks too. The average 5/10 player doesn't ever limp-call JJ I guess.

[bdawg56kg]

This is out of my leage, but I have a few questions. First, what makes you think he can't have a passively-played ten here? Let's say he has a ten. On the river when he fills up, do you think there's more value in betting or checking from his pov? Also, what about Kdxd? Seems like a definite possibility that he could have played exactly the way he did.

Now about your line. In this spot I think a bet closer to the pot size would be more effective, no? Something like $200. Are you really betting less than 1/2 pot with air here? I noticed in your other thread when you made thin river value bets, you bet close to pot size. Why is it any different in this situation? I'm guessing there are a lot of tricky aggro players at 1kNL, so wouldn't your "weak" river bet be inviting a CR here? So much for a value bet when he CR's you with 9 high. Also, what do you think of betting the turn then checking behind on the river? (although I tend to like a check better)

I'm curious to know the results on this one.

Edit: If he leads river for $200-250, are you insta-folding?

[dj newman]

I don't see a 10 or K checking the river...especially after you checked the turn and confirmed in his mind that you have A-high. He has no reason to suspect that you will bet the river, so no reason to check. I usually check behind here, but I now see why a bet would be a good thing. gg

[dj newman]

One more thing, playing a hand like this...calling a river bluff is a must since he will think that you have a lot of nothing.

[gabe]

he could put me on ace high

You think he could have AQ/AJ/A9 and think you have that too? Unlikely.

he could easily have Ax of diamonds and my line looks alot like AQ or AJ.

This is out of my leage, but I have a few questions. First, what makes you think he can't have a passively-played ten here? Let's say he has a ten. On the river when he fills up, do you think there's more value in betting or checking from his pov? Also, what about Kdxd? Seems like a definite possibility that he could have played exactly the way he did.

Now about your line. In this spot I think a bet closer to the pot size would be more effective, no? Something like $200. Are you really betting less than 1/2 pot with air here? I noticed in your other thread when you made thin river value bets, you bet close to pot size. Why is it any different in this situation? I'm guessing there are a lot of tricky aggro players at 1kNL, so wouldn't your "weak" river bet be inviting a CR here? So much for a value bet when he CR's you with 9 high. Also, what do you think of betting the turn then checking behind on the river? (although I tend to like a check better)

I'm curious to know the results on this one.

Edit: If he leads river for $200-250, are you insta-folding?

-i think Kxd is in range, and i think its the only hand he could have that beats me.
-i think the smallish bet gets a call more than a big one in this instance. i just think it looks more like i have ace high.
-keep in mind the villian has a short stack. most players without the full buyin are not tricky.
-i would probably call a river bet if i felt he was bluffing. this depends on bet size and maybe timing of the bet. i think the only hand he ever really bluffs with here is small diamonds though.

[bdawg56kg]

-i think the smallish bet gets a call more than a big one in this instance. i just think it looks more like i have ace high.

Let's say you had A-high. Isn't this a standard check behind on the river? What is the point of the $100 bet? There are no worse hands that can call, since anything worse is the board. I guess it would be to fold out small PP's and A-high as well? If I am villian, A-high is the last hand I'm putting you on...

[gabe]

i don't think i would bet with ace high, but i see people bet with it all the time in spots like these, so maybe villian will think im doing that too

[Lukie]

-i think the smallish bet gets a call more than a big one in this instance. i just think it looks more like i have ace high.

Let's say you had A-high. Isn't this a standard check behind on the river? What is the point of the $100 bet? There are no worse hands that can call, since anything worse is the board. I guess it would be to fold out small PP's and A-high as well? If I am villian, A-high is the last hand I'm putting you on...

33-88, Ax are worse hands that aren't on the board that could realistically call here. Based on action on all prior streets, it's certainly a possibility.

I dunno, gabe, I like this thread and discussing situations like this, but vs an unknown, I think I'm more inclined to just check behind, even if we feel we are ahead more times then we are behind. If he has you beat, he isn't folding. If you are ahead, I think more times then not it's going to be difficult getting any money out of him, although there is certainly some value here. I'm not arguing that. I think the overriding factor here is that we have a hand that certainly has showdown value but can't withstand any pressure here. With more knowledge about our villain here.. ie never c/r's river, will call to keep you honest (on flop and river), etc., I'd definately be more inclined to get some value here.

edit: nevermind, didn't realize we were discussing the same situation where we had ace high. Even then, once in a great while you'll get a donkey to call just playing the board.

edit 2: the first edit was about the little tidbit to bdawg. I'm just going to stop now.