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if u call flop u must call turn.
Does this change if I don't pick up the backdoor draw, or is it just due to the fact that the next bet, which will almost surely happen, puts me allin anyway and if I wasn't going to go that far I should have just folded on the flop? I definately see your point and agree to an extent, but against a villain that won't 2-barrell bluff or put their stack in on a bluff, it wouldn't really apply.
i didnt think bluffing an idiot ever worked.
hahaha yeah idiots like me just love to hit that call button.
I think villain has AQ+ here more than you give him credit for. If he's smart, then he probably also realizes how little a threebet from a thinking player OTB means.
In short, I don't think you are giving him quite enough credit, and I don't think he is giving you as much credit as you think he is.
Heh, obviously I didn't think he has AQ+ there very often. If he puts me on a range of something like QQ-AA (my range here is wider and definately includes AK, but this game is passive and most wouldn't 3-bet AK here. fact.), then I have 1 combo of the nuts and 12 that really can't withstand a whole lot of pressure. I was definately playing tagg at this table, maybe something like 19/13 if memory serves me well and I'm not sure if I had 3-bet at that table yet. Maybe he's a genious and thinks that if I have KK, then I'm probably doing something like betting the flop, and checking behind on the turn, and I'm almost never going to the felt with it. But KK has virtually the same value as A8s here on the flop, so...
Lol, even against a lagtard though A8 suited or not just plays so shitty.. I think in this situation, given my relatively solid image and how wide his range here, 3-betting > folding > calling. Maybe I'm way off base here.
Sometimes even fish wake up with a hand. . .
I think if you had the read in your head that you laid out above, you have to go with it. Trust your instincts.
If your read skills suck, play more ABC poker & take less chances like pre-flop re-raising with A8s.
Here's what I don't understand:
Lukie wrote:
He probably has some pair or a big ace more then likely. . . Flop 2c Ad 5s. Villain leads for $30. Bleh. I really think I'm good here.
Why did your read change? Was it his overbet? Had he done that before with a missed flop C-bet?
Agree with the going with the read and trusting your instincts part. To an extent. This definately applies here.
Yes reraising A8s will get you into a world of hurt, but this seemed like a great opportunity to easily take an extra $5.50 preflop. Sure I'd like to have a big pair or AK or something, but we just have to work with what we've got  . This certainly isn't a standard play for me.
As far as my read that I was ahead, I said that after preflop action, it was likely he had a pair or a big ace. Action on the flop led me to believe the former. It would very much be out of the norm in the NL100 game for a villain to play AK/AQish type hands in this manner. Could/would this villain do it? Sure. If he couldn't, I wouldn't have posted it.
Think about a couple things here. Think about what the villain puts the hero on, and how laggy villain would likely bet if he had the ace any kicker. I don't mind giving the villain credit for playing the flop fast with an ace. I tend not to however, because most aggressive types have a tendancy to slow play when they think they have it, and also the hero has a specific range in this spot incompatible with stacking off to stronger ace.
I had a similar thought process going on in my head as I was playing this hand.
You may go through the above thought process in the villain's spot, but I doubt he did or does. His thought proces is probably 2 levels deep max at this level - but usually stops at level 1 out of convenience.
Good point, and I definately think that assuming everyone knows whats going on at a poker table is suicide, but this guy wasn't a donkey, I certainly would have said so if i thought that. Not that I think he's a great lagg either  .. don't get me wrong. That said, I don't really think it takes much thought process to put me on a hand like QQ/KK where that ace is a major scare card and would be easy to push me off a hand.
i dont think so. there are some people who you can be sure won't fire 2 barrels at you with air. people like this its a good idea to call flop and fold turn.
Yeah, but you also have to consider that I've picked up some reasonable equity on the turn and more then likely have 12 good outs if I'm behind, so hero only has to be best here a somewhat small portion of the time to make this call. I don't really feel like doing the math right now, but suffice it to say I think the flop decision is by far the biggest in this hand. Preflop too I suppose because that's what got me there.
Villains thought process was simply to steal. He repped the ace on the flop, and the flat call by hero meant weakness so being potstruck he pushes the turn with $59 into a $90 pot as a desperate attempt at fold equity thinking hero has JJ-KK. Not too deep from villains perspective.
interesting to note here is that villain's pot management skills really suck. Betting less on the flop and more on the turn adds a significant amount to his fold equity, IMO.
For the results oriented, please don't take this as a brag post because it's not, but villain had TT which did not improve.
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*glub glub glub*
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Originally Posted by Lukie
