An AK hand from memory

[chardrian]

I guess I deleted the hand history.

This was from a $30 rebuy on Dise a couple nights ago.

I had been super duper pooper scooper tight.... and unfortunately was also card dead, so just scraping along. I finally got big slick and got my stack up to close to 30 k.

Very next hand I am dealt :Ah: :Kd: UTG. Blinds are 800/1600. I raise to 5k ish. Small stack in CO with between 6-7k pushes. Big stack with over 50k on button also pushes.

So - here's my read. I really don't think he has AA because I think he would smooth call there. I also don't think he has AQ or worse. I put him on a pocket pair. Anywhere from 55-KK.

So I am a dog here, but not a huge dog, and I have the opportunity to now finally get a real stack over 60k. I am not really concerned about the small stack except for the fact that he might counterfeit some of my outs.

Call or fold?

Why?

[drmcboy]

at a non terrible site I could maybe find a fold, here I think you need to gambool, slow play = less hands = more urgency. Fold is OK... if you were getting 2/1 from the pot I think you have to call, not quite there here (antes?) so I could go either way. Plus even though you say he has a pair in my mind there is always a chance he shows AQ here - better than chance he has AA.

[chardrian]

There were antes, but basically it was calling 25 k to win a little over 35 k.

[fjuanl]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,220,621,480 games 4.500 secs 493,471,440 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 27.6946 % 25.70% 02.00% { AhKd }
Hand 2: 22.5193 % 20.28% 02.23% { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 3: 49.7861 % 49.32% 00.47% { TT+ }

Hand 2 - shorstack
Hand 3 - chipleader


vs chipleader

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

41,095,296 games 0.094 secs 437,184,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.9971 % 36.71% 00.29% { AhKd }
Hand 2: 63.0029 % 62.72% 00.29% { TT+ }

meh, i fold

[chardrian]

well - that wasn't my range.

Like I said I put big stack on 55-KK.

My range for short stack wouldve been any pair/any broadway.

makes it much closer - I already checked it once, but don't have pokerstove at home.

[Rondavu]

What does he think of you? What's his range for you? I would fold.

[fjuanl]

how do u know he would push pp's below TT here knowing you have played tight and just raised UTG? donk?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

9,375,957,360 games 17.390 secs 539,157,985 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.3817 % 32.04% 01.34% { AhKc }
Hand 2: 40.9803 % 40.69% 00.29% { KK-55 }
Hand 3: 25.6380 % 24.13% 01.50% { 22+, AJs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

87,327,504 games 0.219 secs 398,755,726 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 43.4767 % 43.26% 00.21% { AhKc }
Hand 2: 56.5233 % 56.31% 00.21% { KK-55 }

little better, but still not in that great shape. this is a hard one

[chardrian]

He's weird in that I wouldn't call him a donk, but he also wouldn't make this move without a pocket pair.

He's willing to push here with a hand as low as 55 because he thinks he is probably ahead and knows even if he's not he might push me off.

I really don't know their range on me. The only two hands I had shown was a K9 I pushed preflop when my M was low and doubled me up and the AK which mighta looked donkish when I picked off a smaller stacks stop'n'go with JK on a raggedy flop.

[zenbitz]

I think this is a fold. It's probably +EV but very, very slim. And you can't totally discount EITHER of them having AA.... or one have AK crippling the deck for you two vs. any pair.

[stranglin]

If you're sure he has a pocket pair and you suspect that the shortstack may have some of your outs, I don't understand how you can call here. Against 55, you're a little worse than a coinflip. You might have only 5 outs instead of 6, which would mean you'd be closer to 40% or less (I need to brush up on this). Throw in on top of all of that, you're an accomplished player from what I can gather, so you should have an edge. That being the case, I can't see why you would want to gamble with him. Sklansky mentions this in his tournament book. You don't want to push small edges for all your chips if you're sure you can outplay him later on. I realize that you're getting shortstacked yourself, especially with less than 25k after this hand, but I would hold off and go into push mode.

This could be a leak in my game, but I would have open-pushed to begin the hand. With M<10, I generally don't like to open raise without pushing unless I have AA or KK.