AK, AQ and not hitting

[flashgordon]

Let me paint you a little scenario.
This happens to me from time to time, and is one of the leaks I should get fixed. I´m doing really well in 10+1 and such SnGs on P-Stars and PartyP, as well as a swedish site.

Anyway, it goes something like this (not actual hand, just how it usually looks)

KRS (thats me folks) is in middle position, 5-6 players. Picks up AQ or AKs/off. Let´s say the blinds are 25/50, and everyone has around 1000 $ in chips.

KRS: Raises to 125-200.
Relatively loose player calls in position.

Flop: 10 5 7 Rainbow. Pot 375

KRS bets 300.
Villain calls.

Turn: 10 5 7 (Jd), two diamonds on board. Pot 1075, KRS and other player has 500-600 left.

KRS does what? I think I should bet and I do so often, problem is this is turning into an all-in with just A high against someone how is loose, but not so loose as to put him on absolutely zero.
Loose player calls, river is blank, hand goes to all in and I loose to twopair, one pair or PP.

If I fold to a river bet, I´m down to like 350-400 or less with blinds 25-50, if I call I probably make a bad call.

My friends suggested checking flop and possibly checkraising to define villains hand. Comments?


BTW, as a curious sidenote, I´m swedish and I just started playing on svenskaspel.se, which is a state run online poker site. The swedish social democrats not only licence, but runs gambling in Sweden, and has opened the worlds only state run site. It´s kinda half assed, but the quality of the players is so low it´s too good an oportunity to pass up. Svenskaspel.se features such functions as a mandatory limit you have to set for your self, concerning stuff like how much and for how long you can play, downtime between 3 in the night until 7 in the morning (why? No idea, probably just "people shouldnt play all night, it´s not good for them!") and a complete lack of player notes, easy to access hand histories or info about other players...
Still, it´s easy money.

[gabe]

dont bet that much of your stack against loose players with nothing. wait to bet when you have cards.

or you could just push it allin preflop

[retro69]

Turn: 10 5 7 (Jd), two diamonds on board. Pot 1075, KRS and other player has 500-600 left.

Why are you down to this amount of chips?
You have raised say 200 and then put in a 300 flop raise.
Pokerstars you start with 1500 chips and your down to 1000 chips.. not sure about partypoker, i dont play there.

If you are down to 1000 chips and the blinds are 50/100 a push preflop is maybe a better idea either you'll pick up all the limpers chips or if you do get called you 've got a strong hand and then at least you'll be seeing all 5 cards.

Your pretty much doing exactly what i would do early on in the SnG (maybe with AQo ill limp to flop if there has been a few limpers and id need to hit to carry on)

With raising preflop you have to c-bet the flop, id say 300 is on the higher side of what id bet. Id make it 250-275.
If hes staying with me on that flop id have to assume hes either hit trips or has a high pair unless hes a total donk (if you have any reads it helps here)

On the turn im not putting any more into this pot and will check and fold to a bet, if i get a free river from him ill re-evaluate from there.

[NotSteve]

This is a situation I struggle with too, I'll take a stab at it. First of all, you say the pot is 375 entering the flop and I'm assuming that means you raised to 150, caller is in late position, and the blinds folded. I like the raise to 150 given the stack sizes (everyone around 1000), 200 would be better with bigger stacks but in this situation, 150 looks like just enough to be a serious raise and it shouldn't be too hard to get away from the hand if you miss the flop. But if you make the continuation bet, I think 300 is too much of a committment here, might as well just go all in immediately if you're going to bet that much - at least you'll see all 5 cards. Especially since you're planning to bet the turn anyway, you'd be better off getting your chips in on the flop. But you don't even have a pair, do you really want to play for all your chips on that flop? Probably not. You might make a continuation bet for 200 (about half the pot), but in that case I'm not putting any more money in unless I hit the A or K. The half pot continuation bet is +EV if your opponent has a 1/3 chance of folding, which doesn't even take into account the chance of hitting on the turn if you get called, so I like this play against a tight opponent. However you're talking about a loose opponent, who will likely call if he has 2 overcards (which he almost certainly does unless he called with garbage preflop - the only hope is he might fold ace-rag). I just wouldn't make a continuation bet against that type of player, or I should say I've done it, and they almost always call, and then I'm in the ugly situation that prompted you to write this post. Against that type of opponent (which seems like the majority of players in a $10 and under SNG), I'd just check the flop. And if the opponent makes a sizable bet (more than half the pot), I might be folding the best hand but I'm folding anyway. If they minbet, then I might checkraise. Say they bet 200 though, if I checkraise that I might as well go all in and that's a guessing game for all my chips with no pair, I'd rather just walk away with the 850 I still have and wait for a better opportunity. Here's how I look at it. About 1/3 of the time I'll hit an A or K on the flop (or Q if we're talking about AQ). In that case I'll be happy to bet and keep betting, and against a loose opponent there's a decent chance they'll give me all their chips. I think that more than compensates for the other 2/3 of the time, where I'm probably taking the 150 as a loss if my opponent shows any aggression at all. Now if they also check the flop, I might make a play on the turn, that's another story.

[flashgordon]

Well, I might be overbetting it. BTW, the numbers are all approximately estimated, my point is simply that I tend to bet half or 2/3rds of my stack away with A high, good kicker. On the flop I often rightly assume I have the best hand (a Jack could mean trouble against donkeys who value KJ as highly as AK, but still...)
The C-bet then will cost me, I should perhaps think about shaving of a 100 or so, make it smaller.
The times when I have lost it, and gone to a losing showdown with the hand, it has often been my AK vs KJ, Q10 or something. They shouldnt have been in the hand to begin with, but I sure as hell, shouldnt have bet on the turn when my flop bet is called. Curiously enough, these players will often flop middle pair, call the flop and fold the turn if I continue to show aggression.
When they dont, however, here we are. If I were to play against myself, this would probably be a winning move, since I play tight preflop and bet hard on the flop (against 1 opponent, 2 is a different story). So they may be outplaying me by reading I probably did not hit that flop, or they may just be in the habit of calling with 2nd best hand which in this case holds up.
But, as a summary, advice taken and lessons learned:
Make the C-bet smaller, be hesitant of the call, dont invest too much on a dead flop. That about sums it up?