$25NL - JJ Fold preflop, too weak tight?

[andy-akb]

This felt incredibly weak tight, but I had a good number of hands on the villain [800] and his stats were 13.9/2.1/1.5 [VPIP/PFR/Agg]. 2.1% of hands is JJ+ AKs, out of UTG+1 he has probably tightened up some. He has a decent sized stack, but I really doubt that I have the implied odds here to hit my set and get paid off because the villain is very passive postflop.

Given these stats, is this a fold?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($35.97)
MP1 ($4.75)
Hero ($32.45)
CO ($45.30)
Button ($16.25)
SB ($27.89)
BB ($23.60)
UTG ($25.12)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J, J. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 6 folds.

Final Pot: $2.35

[Fnord]

When someone opens for something stupid I almost always re-raise or fold.

[midas06]

$2 is a standard raise in 25nl, no?

[vegascoop]

$1 would be the standard normal raise. The min raise is pretty popular too at this level.

Edit - I would fold here too against someone SO tight.

[nutsinho]

wtf, it doesnt matter if HE's passive postflop, because YOU aren't going to be if you hit your set
You need to get him to put in half his stack with an overpair when you hit a set for this to be profitable, which I think is extremely likely. Call

[Fnord]

You need to get him to put in half his stack with an overpair when you hit a set for this to be profitable.

Wrong, DUCY?

I think pre-flop is close, but I probably let the Wookie have the blinds.

[Vrax]

Wrong, DUCY?

Because:
- raiser can be an idiot maniac and with JJ you can stack him unimproved
- raiser may not be a total idiot, but his range is wide enough to re-raise with jacks
- making it $6 will allow to rep the board and push off coinflips to JJ preflop (risky at $25NL)
- raiser can be camper, then our jacks basically turn into 22's and it's insta-muck

DICY? Fnord?

[Fnord]

DICY? Fnord?

Nope.

Because:
o Sometimes he has AKo, misses and gives you no action.
o Sometimes he flipped the spew bit and gives you no action past his c-bet.
o Sometimes he has KK/QQ and gives you no action on a AJx board.
o Sometimes he has QQ and gives you no action on a KJx board.
o Sometimes he out-flops or sucks out on you.
o Sometimes someone else wakes up with a hand after you or goes nuts and you don't see a flop.
o Sometimes he gets away from his hand.

The union of all of those, makes me want to only go to 5%ish of the effective stack size here unless I expect more over-calls, which his big PFR probably shuts out. He's probably got QQ+/AK here and he protected it well pre-flop. Good for him, next hand.

UCY?

[Vrax]

Nice explantation, Fnord

Yes, I was second guessing and it found out to be wrong reasoning by me, thanks for correcting it.

What about QQ? Same situation? Do you play for stacks with QQ overpair with 40BB behind?

[Fnord]

Do you play for stacks with QQ overpair with 40BB behind?

25c Big Blind.

I would fold everything but AA/KK to this pre-flop over-bet from a player with a 2% PFR.

[Lukie]

raiser may not be a total idiot, but his range is wide enough to re-raise with jacks

WHAT

You're reraising a guy with a 2% PFR who raised in early position to 8x at full ring with JJ? I respect 3-betting more and it's something I have really incorporated into my game more recently, but that is just bad.

andy, to be honest, I like the muck. FWIW, I don't think seeing a flop would be a very big mistake if you decided to do so.

[andy-akb]

andy, to be honest, I like the muck. FWIW, I don't think seeing a flop would be a very big mistake if you decided to do so.

Yea, thats kind of what I thought too, I thought it would be close but havent been very confident in my postflop play recently so I decided to muck it. Im glad people werent appalled by this play.

[Lodogg]

I would fold here as well..2% PFR means AA, KK, AKs, and AKo. Why put so much money in when you are way behind or slightly ahead. Good thing you had some stats on this guy. It might have cost you a good piece of your stack otherwise.

[Vrax]

raiser may not be a total idiot, but his range is wide enough to re-raise with jacks

WHAT

You're reraising a guy with a 2% PFR who raised in early position to 8x at full ring with JJ? I respect 3-betting more and it's something I have really incorporated into my game more recently, but that is just bad.

andy, to be honest, I like the muck. FWIW, I don't think seeing a flop would be a very big mistake if you decided to do so.

LOL, no way I reraise 2%PFR nit with jacks, it's insta-muck.

"range wide enough" = standard TAG range "88+, AQ+", but it still can be too small to go bonkers with Jacks, especially OOP with lots of players and little money behind. 8BB makes it more questionable, and I'm glad that Fnord corrected my reasoning.

Yesssss, you're nit