ak nut flush and 2 overs, u like to put in all ya money?

[ripjohngotti]

Do like to get all your money in the pot with ak with nut flush draw and 2 overs? 15 outs 51% to win. Sucks when nothing comes.


pacohaas is at seat 0 with 9630.
jayeck13 is at seat 1 with 7945.
leelowbrown is at seat 2 with 1185.
mikecalls is at seat 3 with 1730.
chapz is at seat 4 with 5680.
KNUKLHEAD is at seat 5 with 4115.
408HaRRy is at seat 6 with 1510.
Lana23 is at seat 7 with 40.
FiveStates is at seat 8 with 1670.
marimark is at seat 9 with 15660.
The button is at seat 6.

Lana23 posts the small blind of 40, goes all-in.
FiveStates posts the big blind of 100.

pacohaas: -- --
jayeck13: Kc Ac
leelowbrown: -- --
mikecalls: -- --
chapz: -- --
KNUKLHEAD: -- --
408HaRRy: -- --
Lana23: -- --
FiveStates: -- --
marimark: -- --

Pre-flop:

marimark folds. pacohaas folds. jayeck13 raises to
340. leelowbrown folds. mikecalls folds. chapz
calls. KNUKLHEAD folds. 408HaRRy folds.
FiveStates folds.

Flop (board: 6h 7c Jc):

jayeck13 bets 820. chapz raises to 3280. jayeck13
goes all-in for 7605. chapz goes all-in for 5340.
jayeck13 is returned 2265 (uncalled).

Tournament all-in showdown -- players show:

jayeck13 shows Kc Ac.
chapz shows Ah 6c.
Lana23 (absent) mucks cards.


Turn (board: 6h 7c Jc 5d):

(no action in this round)


River (board: 6h 7c Jc 5d 5h):

(no action in this round)




Showdown:

jayeck13 has Kc Ac Jc 5d 5h: a pair of fives.
chapz has Ah 6c 6h 5d 5h: two pair, sixes and fives.


Hand #31358691-56 Summary:

No rake is taken for this hand.
chapz wins the main pot 160 with two pair, sixes and fives.
chapz wins the side pot 11340 with two pair, sixes and fives.

[TLR]

what did u put villian on ?IF you assumed you had 15 clean outs you made the right call, with 12 clean outs I think its marginal

[taipan168]

I fold to the flop raise. Although you have the nut flush draw, your overs may not be clean outs (eg. if opp has 2 pair, a set or, as in this case, Ax where x=5, 6, or 7). Also, the flop bet is good but with 820 in the pot I make it a little less (say 450-500), if opp hasn't connected with the flop this will be enough to prompt him to fold.

[Laeelin]

no, i dont like to risk everything on it... but it's great to make someone fold...

jayeck13 bets 820. chapz raises to 3280. jayeck13
goes all-in for 7605. chapz goes all-in for 5340.

he has already reraised you one time, so, if your read is that he can fold push, if he cant, fold IMO...

NM, checked the pot size, you must push IMO :P

[Renton]

this play is much better in ring than in tourneys

[JeffreyGB]

this play is much better in ring than in tourneys

Depends on the stage/size of the tourney...I like this a lot better in MTTs than SnGs. From the stack sizes, this has to be a MT-SnG at least, so I don't hate it. That's a lot of dead money...I certainly don't mind the play.

[givememyleg]

I like a check raise on this board.

If he checks behind on the flop, free card.

If he calls your check raise, you have a lot of outs.

Plus you have more FE imo when you do this.. if when you lead out, he raises, he is pretty much committed.

[adiamant]

Stacks are deep, villain is pot commited after his reraise, he tells you that he's not folding. Do you have a read that he does this with nothing?
Do you really want to put your whole tournament on a 50/50 shot at best at this point?
I would agree with Taipan. Bet a little less on the flop. I fold to the flop reraise.

[ripjohngotti]

Thanks for the advice everyone, but you have to take chances at some point in tournements. For the 50/50. But i see your point blinds are still not Huge and my M is still good.

Its a trick situation.

[aleksandr]

Yeah, AK is one of those hands that you can really easily get carried away on. I push here though. Your FE is good to put you over the top, and if you double here you're in commanding chip lead. I put him on 67s for the 2pair, or 77 for a set on the flop raise though. Nice FE too.

[GatorJH]

But i see your point blinds are still not Huge and my M is still good.

Its a trick situation.

That is what makes this an easier fold. If the blinds were larger or your M smaller I could see pushing here, but there is no need to go chasing hands this early in the tourney.

[Scuba Chuck]

LOL, there's something to be said and learned about deep stacked poker. Villain played his hand atrociously. I think it's pretty cool to check this flop here, you've still got 7500+ chips behind. Furthermore, if you're going to bet it, you should only bet about 500.

ak nut flush and 2 overs, u like to put in all ya money?

Not with stacks this deep. I repeat, I think check calling is the best line on this flop.

Edit: OP, you really should post your hand w/o results. It always makes discussions more interesting.

[Fnord]

LOL, there's something to be said and learned about deep stacked poker.

56 bets isn't deep.

Pretty easy c-bet, quite often the other guy has nothing. Once raised, it's a crying push. No way you can fold, but most players are so weak that you have very little (but some) fold equity. Might as well stick it all in to see 2 cards while you're not in bad shape.

Are you going with the weaker line as a tourney thing to save chips for a real edge?

[Scuba Chuck]

LOL, there's something to be said and learned about deep stacked poker.

56 bets isn't deep.

Pretty easy c-bet, quite often the other guy has nothing. Once raised, it's a crying push. No way you can fold, but most players are so weak that you have very little (but some) fold equity. Might as well stick it all in to see 2 cards while you're not in bad shape.

Are you going with the weaker line as a tourney thing to save chips for a real edge?

I don't agree with this. Hero has 79 big bets preflop. Furthermore, he is the third biggest stack at the table. Don't get me wrong, villain played this hand much much worse than hero here (that's why i wish results were not posted). But this is not an opportune time to make a play like this. If you like my line of thought, then check-call is the better line. Furthermore, it should slow down villain on the turn a little (most of the time).

[Fnord]

I don't agree with this. Hero has 79 big bets preflop.

Opponent has less than that, hence that's the effective stack size.
Furthermore, since we wouldn't be all-in we should be more willing to push thinner edges.

If you like my line of thought, then check-call is the better line. Furthermore, it should slow down villain on the turn a little (most of the time).

I want more money behind to check/call. I don't want to face a turn decision and want to force him to make his hand. Making hands is hard, I'd rather it be his problem when the pot is raised.

I like bet/push and check/raise depending on my read. I'm gambling here and seeing a river card, this is my spot, I'm falling on my sword. I would only check/call if I know this guy is taking Ax or any pair to showdown for his stack.

[Scuba Chuck]

I want more money behind to check/call. I don't want to face a turn decision and want to force him to make his hand.

What is so hard about making a turn decision? It seems to me one of the elements to allin move on the flop here is that you have some expected FE, which I don't think you have with a 3bet. Thus, I can understand thinking a check-raise, which will look pretty large (fishy).

There's ~ 850 in the pot. Hero has ~ 7500 behind. Lots of poker to play. This hand demonstrates that hero's edge in this game comes from not taking coinflips against donks like this. Again, I emphasize that you need to have more FE in a hand like this to make an allin bet.

[Fnord]

What is so hard about making a turn decision? It seems to me one of the elements to allin move on the flop here is that you have some expected FE, which I don't think you have with a 3bet.

The fold equity comes from our inital c-bet or check raise. If we bet and are raised we gamble it up with the overlay created via our prior +EV aggression. Once he raises we kinda have to stick the rest in because our other options suck worse. I agree that we have very little fold equity on the 3-bet, but there is always a non-zero chance his network connection drops or his computer crashes .

Re: Turn decisions: The absolute nighmare scenario for our hand is to miss the turn with potish behind and face a push.

[gabe]

What is so hard about making a turn decision? It seems to me one of the elements to allin move on the flop here is that you have some expected FE, which I don't think you have with a 3bet.

The fold equity comes from our inital c-bet or check raise. If we bet and are raised we gamble it up with the overlay created via our prior +EV aggression. Once he raises we kinda have to stick the rest in because our other options suck worse. I agree that we have very little fold equity on the 3-bet, but there is always a non-zero chance his network connection drops or his computer crashes .

Re: Turn decisions: The absolute nighmare scenario for our hand is to miss the turn with potish behind and face a push.

took the words right out of my mouth. i think the only debate is whether the cbet or the c/r AI is best, but that probably depends most on the opponent.

[Scuba Chuck]

Re: Turn decisions: The absolute nighmare scenario for our hand is to miss the turn with potish behind and face a push.

Well, the one thing about this hand that we do not have to do is to make a flop call. If he makes a PSB or greater, there's potentially a chance I'm mucking, although it's not likely with a PSB, because I likely have plenty of implied odds to make it correct (again, this hand is deep enough).

That being said, there's a good chance I'm making a c-bet on this hand. But, I would play this hand differently preflop, and I never make a PSB c-bet on this textured flop. In fact, this is precisely the type of flop that I generally like to check. If I make a 2/3 bet, and he raises me a couple thousand chips, I'm probably folding. Again, this hand demonstrates how donkish our opponents are. Given the way this hand played, there are just soooo many dead chips that I think I would have to shove.

I agree that we have very little fold equity on the 3-bet, but there is always a non-zero chance his network connection drops or his computer crashes .

Interestingly (or not) enough, I had not considered that possibility.

[Fnord]

If I make a 2/3 bet, and he raises me a couple thousand chips, I'm probably folding.

From a chip EV perspective, folding is a disaster unless you know enough to put him on AA/set/2pr or the money is a lot deeper.

[Rondavu]

If hero knows villain is even somewhat donkish ahead of time, then keeping the pot small until a hand is made is the best line. In that regard I agree with Scuba Chuck. There is just too much of an advantage over donky villain to do him any favors with diminished fold equity. I don't care how many outs you have.

You can't jam your outs against bad players this way because bad players give you too much value on the back end of a make to justify a front heavy line. You may lose a bit of value on the back end, but not enough to bother yourself over it.

If I knew villain was fishy, I would check around in a spot like this, and I would fold to a bet that destroys my odds. That's because fishy villains stack is being held for me temporarily. He's just not ready to give it away yet. So you can see that Blitzkrieging a mistake prone opponent before you make a hand is clearly silly stuff.

[Scuba Chuck]

If I make a 2/3 bet, and he raises me a couple thousand chips, I'm probably folding.

From a chip EV perspective, folding is a disaster unless you know enough to put him on AA/set/2pr or the money is a lot deeper.

Ok, let's get this out. How much deeper is deeper to you? Are you saying you need 200 BB's here to over come the estimated 8% card equity (46 vs 54)?

I mean put this in relationship where we're playing perfect poker. Let's assume everyone's cards are face up after hero makes a c-bet. Given that situation on this flop, our hero has 45.3% card equity. Hero has 8 clubs and 3 ks to improve (unless the board pairs a non-6) then he has 2 more aces.

In my situation, there's 820 in the pot, let's say I bet 550, and we're now talking about playing for stacks. So effectively, there's 1370 + the 550 match in dead chips, and it's 4790 to play. So it costs 4790 to win 6710.

By the way folding, we have 7055 (15% equity prize pool)

Shove, win = 13,765 (26.12% of the equity prize pool)
Shove, lose = 2,265 (5.45% of the equity prize pool)

Shoving = (.453)(.2612) + (.547)(.0545)
Shoving = .118 + .03
Shoving = .148
Shoving = 14.8% of the equity prize pool

This surprises me. I was actually expecting shoving to be slightly more than folding, and I was planning to argue that this edge is not worth it at this level, but, alas, the math speaks for itself.

Now, given the way hero played it, here are the results:
Folding = 6,785 (14.67% of the equity prize pool)
Shoving = 14.8% of the equity prize pool (from above)

Here we can say that shoving has a marginal edge. Do you think this can or cannot be made up at a later time?

Final thoughts
I don't know what range of hands you want to use for villain, but certainly, it's possible that our hero is ahead here, like if villain had QJ, hero is actually head. But, poker is a game of incomplete information, so I am using the following hand range to use for general purposes:

Board: 6d 7c Jc
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 44.6403 % 44.57% 00.07% { AcKc }
Hand 2: 55.3597 % 55.29% 00.07% { JJ, 77-66, AJs, A7s-A6s, KJs, QJs, AJo, A7o-A6o, KJo, QJo }

No matter how we slice the range, we're going to be about a 45% dog on average (with the range being 25% behind to ~ 52% ahead. This second number excludes the possibility that villain is on a lower FD).

[Scuba Chuck]

That's because fishy villains stack is being held for me temporarily.

I love that.

[Scuba Chuck]

BTW, if hero has 4,000 chips behind preflop, instead of ~ 8000, then this is a play for all your chips hand, the way it played out. In fact, if you want, you could/should back out how many chips you need to have to add let's say 1 or 2% EV to your play. (hint hint, homework assignment)

For that matter, if you had fewer chips behind preflop, and it's checked to you, you should likely just shove, not bet.

[Fnord]

BTW, if hero has 4,000 chips behind preflop, instead of ~ 8000.

The effective stack size puts 5340 chips behind. Villian does not cover hero.

[Scuba Chuck]

BTW, if hero has 4,000 chips behind preflop, instead of ~ 8000.

The effective stack size puts 5340 chips behind. Villian does not cover hero.

I understand what you mean. You're right. I'm not sure if my caveman logic (1/2 of hero's stack) is that far off though, as I have been thinking about % of hero's stack. As played, he has committed ~ 15% of his stack to the hand after the c-bet. If he had 4,000 behind preflop, as played he'd have committed ~ 30% of his stack. Then, with 2,460 in dead chips in the middle after the reraise, the pot would be almost the same as his remaining chips (= pot committed).

Interesting. You've only gone out of your way to prove a small, less instricate point where I was wrong, but not addressed my response to your play.