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ICM = Independent Chip Model
Very basically ....
it equates your stack to a share of the prize pool and works out whether you should or shouldn't make a call or push based there on.
Lets say you are 4 handed, and the stacks are
Player 1 = 1000
Player 2 = 4000
Player 3 = 2000
You = 3000
........ therefore ........
Player 1 = 10% of the prize pool
Player 2 = 40% of the prize pool
Player 3 = 20% of the prize pool
You = 30% of the prize pool
..... ok? ...... Right, let's now say that Player 2 is pushing lots of hands and is capable of pushing any two ...... and the blinds are 100/200, no antes ....
.... Player 1 folds, Player 2 pushes AI, Player 3 (SB) folds .....
.... You look down in the BB at K T ......
Do u call or fold here?
well, PokerStove tells us that KTs is a 60.6% : 37% fave over a random hand with a 2.4% chance of a tie.
Therefore you now work out what happens if ....
1. you call and win
2. you call and lose
3. you call and tie
4. you fold
So ....
1. will happen 60.6% of the time and you will end up with 6100 chips (double-up plus the SB) or 61.1% of the prize pool
2. will happen 37% of the time and you will end up with 0
3. will happen 2.4% of the time and you will end up with 3050 (you split the SB effectively) or 30.5% of the prize pool
4. will happen when you decide to fold! but you end up with 2800 in chips or 28% of the prize pool
Then basically, if 1+2+3 > 4, you call, if 1+2+3<4, you fold
OK? Right, quick bit of maths,
1. 60.6% x 61.6% (or 0.606*0.616) = 0.373
+
2. 37% x 0 (or 0.37 * 0) = 0
+
3. 2.4% x 30.5% (or 0.024*0.305) = 0.007
=0.38 (or 38% of the prize pool)
So calling, over the long run, will give you 38% of the prize pool where as folding only leaves you with 28%. Therefore, in this particular situation, this is a clear call.
have a read of this
and this
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