Am I overvaluing AQs and pot odds?

[konahead]

BGBDRCNBV had pushed 3 times in the last two rounds, and was a little loose in the early goings. EthanWillWin seemed to bet what he has but by then I was in deep and didnt fold given my hand and the pot odds.....

do you call, raise, or fold to the initial short stack push? I raised to get the pot heads-up, which for sure is the only way to play it if you ARE going to play it...

if you raise (as I did), do you call or fold to the 2nd push? I felt pot odds dictated that I call, but I could have come back from 580 with blinds at 30/60 blinds...

#Game No : 4177683282
***** Hand History for Game 4177683282 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in Trny:23038403 Level:2 Blinds(30/60) - Wednesday, May 03, 19:55:58 ET 2006
Table Speed #1187760 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: kirbynator77 ( $1800 )
Seat 8: konahead ( $1900 )
Seat 10: bigt103 ( $4490 )
Seat 9: EthanWillWin ( $1910 )
Seat 1: ballybane ( $1940 )
Seat 4: Smoke23 ( $1550 )
Seat 6: notmypres ( $120 )
Seat 2: coteauloki ( $1940 )
Seat 7: BGBDRCNBV ( $690 )
Seat 5: COYNE16 ( $3660 )
Trny:23038403 Level:2
Blinds(30/60)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to konahead [ Qc Ac ]
kirbynator77 folds.
Smoke23 folds.
COYNE16 folds.
notmypres folds.
BGBDRCNBV is all-In [690]
konahead raises [1320].
EthanWillWin is all-In [1910]
bigt103 folds.
ballybane folds.
coteauloki folds.
konahead thinks for a long time.....
konahead is all-In [580]

good or bad?

[vqc]

580 to win 690+1320+1910 = 3920.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 22.5514 % 21.75% 00.80% { AcQc }
Hand 2: 60.9950 % 60.58% 00.41% { QQ+ }
Hand 3: 16.4536 % 15.68% 00.77% { 66+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

i dont think u can pass up the odds.

I shove over the original all in.

[givememyleg]

With 31 bb's here I probably fold preflop. But then again, I'm tighter than most 6 yr olds in the early blind lvls.

But as you played I think you either have to push/fold after his allin. You are totally committed here once you raise if someone comes over the top, which someone did.

[fjuanl]

unless you really know a big majority of the time you have 2 overcards to the shorty, I just toss it. You never know if those 3 pushes could have been big hands.

you cant throw it away after you put in the original raise in, because your getting almost 7 to 1 odds. get your luckbox ready for a 3 outer tho

[ark4748]

I shove over the original all in.

[Da GOAT]

Im with givememyleg here.

I find this an easy fold pf after original raise. Its too much of my stack,not in position to know what others have, dont want a 50/50 here this early.

The only hand im ahead is AJ otherwise 50/50 at best. Unless shorty been pushing crap then 60/40.

If I was to play on I go allin

[stranglin]

I guess I'm a coward because I will fold after the original push. However, if the guy has shown shoves with A4 A3, I'd gladly call. I played a guy the other day who would limp rrai Ax, and I just prayed that he'd do it when I had a high ace. He did!

[Scuba Chuck]

Kona, for as long as you've been here, you shouldn't even be asking this. Just do the math.

Hand 1: 87.4609 % { AA }
Hand 2: 12.5391 % { AcQc }

4010 dead chips, 580 to call.
6.9:1 Pot odds. Need to win 12.66% to be correct.

Furthermore, see how much of a mistake it is if he has KK (which I'm assuming you're positive he's not folding, cos I am)

Hand 1: 68.1545 % { KK }
Hand 2: 31.8455 % { AcQc }

Next, run the numbers into ICM, and then decide if you think it's really a call.

Fold = 3.27% of the equity prize pool
Call, win = 21.43% of the equity prize pool

(.125)*(.2143) = 2.6%.
(.3185)*(.2143) = 6.8%

Essentially, you could argue folding makes sense, if, AND ONLY IF, you can put him on AA. Since this clearly is not possible, you just can't. Even if you use the following range, folding is ludicrous.

Hand 1: 74.5899 % 74.24% 00.35% { KK+ }
Hand 2: 25.4101 % 25.06% 00.35% { AcQc }

Now, preflop, that's another thing.