Folding A Low Set?

[samsonite2100]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($65.20)
MP1 ($12.80)
MP2 ($31.05)
Hero ($45.75)
Button ($31.46)
SB ($51.40)
BB ($80.20)
UTG ($54.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2, 2. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, BB raises to $1.5, UTG calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, Button calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($12) 5, 2, 8 (6 players)

For some reason the hand convertor stops working here. Here's the post flop action:

MP1 bets $5. Hero raises to $10. Button pushes for $30. SB pushes for $48. MP1 pushes the remainder of his stack.

Do I call off my remaining 30ish bucks here?

[bair]

fold

[EricE]

I would call. There is only 1 hand (88) that is currently beating you and you are getting 3-1 on your money. I’ll call and hope for the best. Very likely one of them has a flush draw and another may have two pair. If somebody has two pair that reduces the chances of 88 out there. Anyway, 3-1 on my money is enough for me to gamble with a set here.

[Seasider]

I would call. There is only 1 hand (88) that is currently beating you and you are getting 3-1 on your money. I’ll call and hope for the best. Very likely one of them has a flush draw and another may have two pair. If somebody has two pair that reduces the chances of 88 out there. Anyway, 3-1 on my money is enough for me to gamble with a set here.

*ahem* 55?? If there ever was a time to fold a set this is it. Flop isnt connected to give sooty connectors 2 pair pre flop looks like set hunters not big overpairs. But then the flop is quite low so a limped 99+ would fancy it.....

Dunnow, how aggro had these guys been playing? A call is certaintly higher varience but I could probably be talked into it.

[EricE]

Jeeze. Somehow I thought he had 55. Yeah, two possible sets over me change my opinion. I fold.

[GatorJH]

The problem here is that none of these players raised pre-flop so it is going to be hard to put them on any PP over 10's. I could see the Button pushing with a flush draw (you can find a thread at FTR that discusses this actual move), however I bet either SB or MP1 have a set higher than yours.

With all of that said I am still not sure I would fold this in the heat of the battle.

[KY_Ace]

Wow...good one!!! You're probably beat, but getting 3-1 you have to have more than a 75% probability of being beat to make this fold +EV. The raiser can have AA, but the other 2 have to have limped with 99-JJ and both of them be would have to dumb eneugh to think that their overpair was good with a bet and a raise, not very likely. Unless you are playing with a bunch of donks this probably is one of those extremely rare situations where you can fold a set on the flop. On the other hand if there's a donk or 2 in the hand, don't let them fuck up your game, one of the biggest pots I won at $25 NL I considered folding a set of 5s on a 569 flop, both guys that pushed had KK! i just said, the pots to big to fold a set and called

[spino1i]

Unless you have the most amazing reads of the century, you do NOT make this fold at 50 NL.

[xX zorrito Xx]

easy fold...

[givememyleg]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($65.20)
MP1 ($12.80)
MP2 ($31.05)
Hero ($45.75)
Button ($31.46)
SB ($51.40)
BB ($80.20)
UTG ($54.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2, 2. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, BB raises to $1.5, UTG calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, Button calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($12) 5, 2, 8 (6 players)

MP1 bets $5. Hero raises to $10. Button pushes for $30. SB pushes for $48. MP1 pushes the remainder of his stack.

Do I call off my remaining 30ish bucks here?

Maybe you should just post the original HH.

Soo... let me get this straight.. SB, BB(the pf raiser), and UTG all checked the flop? Then, MP1 bet out, and you min raised. Button pushed and SB had check-raised his entire stack after a b/r/ai. Then after that, the original better called the 2 pushes.

I think you're starring directly into the eye of a set/overset. Sure button may be on a draw, but I have have to think the SB/MP1 has 55 or 88. I think if you ever think about folding a set now is the time!

[WildBobAA]

Make the bigtime laydown.

[relayer]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($65.20)
MP1 ($12.80)
MP2 ($31.05)
Hero ($45.75)
Button ($31.46)
SB ($51.40)
BB ($80.20)
UTG ($54.75)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2, 2. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, BB raises to $1.5, UTG calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, Button calls $1.50, SB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($12) 5, 2, 8 (6 players)

MP1 bets $5. Hero raises to $10. Button pushes for $30. SB pushes for $48. MP1 pushes the remainder of his stack.

Do I call off my remaining 30ish bucks here?

Maybe you should just post the original HH.

Soo... let me get this straight.. SB, BB(the pf raiser), and UTG all checked the flop? Then, MP1 bet out, and you min raised. Button pushed and SB had check-raised his entire stack after a b/r/ai. Then after that, the original better called the 2 pushes.

I think you're starring directly into the eye of a set/overset. Sure button may be on a draw, but I have have to think the SB/MP1 has 55 or 88. I think if you ever think about folding a set now is the time!

Agreed. The button push and the SB CRAI are bad enough, but when MP1 does his AI, someone has got to have 55 or 88.

My curiosity is getting the better of me...what happened?

[Renton]

Unless you have the most amazing reads of the century, you do NOT make this fold at 50 NL.

Here's a pretty similar hand at 4x the stakes. Bottom set on a noncoordinated flop is a monster (thats straight out of SSH).


***** Hand History for Game 4102699066 *****
$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, April 26, 21:15:45 ET 2006
Table Table 95487 (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 8: m0nger ( $471.40 )
Seat 9: Pavel55 ( $297.20 )
Seat 6: Renton555 ( $213.30 )
Seat 7: yo_man555 ( $378.75 )
Seat 3: Keithsm2 ( $223.27 )
Seat 2: ICantCash ( $229.60 )
Seat 1: fabes111 ( $140.06 )
Seat 4: ToldUso555 ( $193.75 )
Seat 10: zp1M2P06 ( $205.75 )
Seat 5: adb235 ( $198 )
Pavel55 posts small blind [$1].
zp1M2P06 posts big blind [$2].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Renton555 [ 5d 5s ]
fabes111 folds.
ICantCash raises [$7].
Keithsm2 folds.
ToldUso555 folds.
adb235 folds.
Renton555 calls [$7].
yo_man555 folds.
m0nger calls [$7].
Pavel55 folds.
zp1M2P06 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9d, Tc, 5c ]
ICantCash bets [$20].
Renton555 calls [$20].
m0nger calls [$20].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3s ]
ICantCash bets [$50].
Renton555 calls [$50].
m0nger raises [$100].
ICantCash is all-In.
Renton555 is all-In.
m0nger calls [$102.60].
** Dealing River ** [ 7s ]
m0nger shows [ Td, 9s ] two pairs, tens and nines.
ICantCash doesn't show [ 9c, 8c ] a pair of nines.
Renton555 shows [ 5d, 5s ] three of a kind, fives.
m0nger wins $32.60 from side pot #1 with two pairs, tens and nines.
Renton555 wins $639.90 from the main pot with three of a kind, fives.

[givememyleg]

Here's a pretty similar hand at 4x the stakes. Bottom set on a noncoordinated flop is a monster (thats straight out of SSH).

I agree bottom set on a noncoordinated flop is a monster.

I disagree that your hand is the same. Look at the action on the flop on the other hand. Check, Bet, Raise, Push, CR AI, Call. Unless someone whispered into my ear a 2 was coming on the river, I'm folding.

[KoRnholio]

With 3 limpers (MP1, Button and SB) all throwing their money into the middle of the table, I fold this. The BB preflop raisor isn't even one of the guys rushing to put his money in.

Sure we're getting good odds, but not good enough for the 2-outer that we almost certainly need. I mean, what can we really put these 3 guys on? Slowplayed AA, 76 spades and..?

[Renton]

I mean, what can we really put these 3 guys on? Slowplayed AA, 76 spades and..?

You are silly if you think you can put people on hands in this situation at these stakes.

Theres almost certainly a slowplayed AA here. Theres probably a flush draw + overs. SB could have any two cards, perhaps top two pair. There is very likely a better set. 67s is possible. 67o is also possible.

A higher set is also extremely possible. But is it possible enough to forgo the chance of stacking three people?

No IMO.

People at 50nl are irrational. You can't reason them or make sense of their actions. You can only do what you normally do against them (stack them with sets).

I think hero's hand is good more than 25% of the time. And thats all he needs to make money.

[KoRnholio]

Maybe the Party 50NL games are that bad (I've never played NL ring games there). But most other sites if this happened at 50NL, at least one of the 3 will have you beat with a higher set.

[dalecooper]

I think hero's hand is good more than 25% of the time. And thats all he needs to make money.

Important point. That said, I'd still think long and hard about this one. That action is absolutely brutal.

[samsonite2100]

My curiosity is getting the better of me...what happened?

Lemme see if I can remember.

MP1 flipped 88, Button flipped A10suited, SB flipped JJ

Button caught a spade on the river and quadrupled up. Soooooooted!