Harrington's Book and Pot Odds In Tournaments

[gormancn]

I'm a fairly advanced limit player, but now I'm trying to master no-limit tournament strategy and theory.

One concept that has me confused is the method of calculating pot-odds in tournament play. Let me give an example from Harrington's book:

Blinds: 1.5k/3k, antes $150
Hero: 50k, middle position, with AK
Villain: 35k, directly to hero's left

Hero open raises for 9k, villain goes all-in for 35k, everyone else folds.
Villain is more or less a tight player.

At this point, the pot is offering our hero 2-1 on his money, but if he loses he'll have only about 14k left. Do you call?

Harrington says that in almost every case he would, grouping the hands into three categories (AA and KK, in which you're a big dog, QQ and below, where you're a 13-10 dog, and high cards where you could even be a 2-1 favorite), and the expectation is positive if you believe there is more than a 50% chance he's holding something besides AA or KK.

My question is this: is pot odds in tournaments really that easy? I'm not necessarily disputing the action, and I think arguments could be made either way, but I'm curious as to the reasoning. Express odds make sense in cash games, where you know not only that if you make the same move every time that you will show a profit, but also that you CAN make the same move every time so long as your bankroll lasts. In a tournmament, if you enter a pot as a dog, even if you're getting the correct odds, if you lose you might be done. So the "long-run" pot odds don't really matter than much anymore. Shouldn't that factor into decision making? If would seem that, so long as you maintained a competitive amount of chips, you'd want to save all-in confrontations for when you have a larger that 1-3% edge in EV. This is, of course, assuming that opponents cooperate. I understand that if opponents pick up on some blatant hesitancy on your part, that you're going to have to make ome kind of stand.

I could make a lot of arguments for either calling or folding in this situation, but they would all depend on the other circumstances in the game (average stack size in the tournament, reads, rating my strength against the strength of others, M's, etc). In this situation, I'd probably call, but my question isn't about that particular decision as it is into how pot-odds should factor into it.

More questions:

Does the fact that I'll have 14k left have a mathematical impact on my decision now? What if it would knock me out of the tournament?

What if I had a higher M? If it's the middle stages of a tournaments and I have 50 BB's, and the same move is made, and I calculate the same odds based on my read, do I make the same play?

...if I can somehow start a reasoned fight with this discussion, that'd be nice.

-Chris

[chardrian]

You are right that cash games are all about maving +EV moves (no matter how slight) assuming your bankroll can withstand hits because over time this will guarantee you profits.

You are also right that MTTs are different because the goal is simply to win everyone else's chips and not just to focus on your own chip stack.

But making +EV plays is still the way to accumulate chips.

There will be the rare situation in an MTT (especially in satellites) where you should fold even though calling or raising would be +EV due to the importance of knokcing other players out and moving up the payment structure. But these situations really are rare.

In general, you still should be attacking any edge you have, even if it is slight, because this is what will accumulate you chips. The fact that you are very possibly a dog to a PP in this example with AK sucks because you don't have the chance to just rebuy if you lose like you would in a cash game. But you need chips, you need double-ups in a MTT, and you don't get all that many opportunities to do so. So when the opportunity comes you must seize it.

[zenbitz]

You should always take a +EV choice, even in a MTT with the following exceptions:

1) $EV out weighs chip EV (typically if you are short stacked at the final table, with multiple people all-in)

2) By skipping a marginally +EV choice now, you have more positive EV IN THE FUTURE. Typically, this is true if your skill edge over the field is very high.

[Laeelin]

Always look at moves by your ending chipstack... in other words, if loseing cripples you, and winning just changes your from a little below average to a little above average, dont make that move just because it's +EV...

For example:

The average chipstack is 5000.
Blinds are 75/150.
I'm the BB.
I have 3500. (M= ~15.6)
A player with 2000 chips pushes.
I think i'm a 5-4 favorite.
I still dont want to call.

Possible outcomes:
1) I have 5600 chipstack - I'm in a nice posistion. (M = ~24.9)
2) I have a 1500 chipstack - I'm crippled (M= ~6.7)

I'm going to fold and wait till i'm in a better posistion.

If on the other hand I'm already sitting at an M of 25 or with an M of 6, this is an easy call because in one I'm not crippled by a loss and in the other the preassure to double up is great enough that I'm looking for any edge to get more chips...

This is also an instant call if your getting better odds (like 2-1)

[drmcboy]

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...es/?a_id=15093