QQ vs. PSB on Flop/Turn

[martindcx1e]

at this point i did not know what villain's range was when leading into a pfr like this. is calling the best line on the turn or what?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($29.65)
CO ($33.26)
Button ($21.87)
SB ($4.20)
BB ($61.17)
Hero ($24.15)
UTG+1 ($20.07)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q. MP1 posts a blind of $0.25. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero raises to $1, 6 folds, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.35) T, 5, 8 (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($6.35) A (2 players)
BB bets $6, Hero ?

[Lukie]

bleh

reads/stats on villain?

I think you need to raise this flop, but it puts you in a real tough position if he comes over the top of you where you pretty much have to lay it down but he could be doing it with a nasty combo draw. Calling and peeling is OK I guess, but there are a ton of scare cards. any K, A, club, T, 8 (much moreso then you think, since he could have a hand like 8c6c) sucks, so I'd probably raise.

Turn you pick up a big redraw to the 2nd nuts.
Hero raises to $21.
Hero folds.

Both are acceptable lines depending on what you think this guy's range is. I think calling is the worst option here.

[martindcx1e]

bleh

reads/stats on villain?

I think you need to raise this flop, but it puts you in a real tough position if he comes over the top of you where you pretty much have to lay it down but he could be doing it with a nasty combo draw. Calling and peeling is OK I guess, but there are a ton of scare cards. any K, A, club, T, 8 (much moreso then you think, since he could have a hand like 8c6c) sucks, so I'd probably raise.

Turn you pick up a big redraw to the 2nd nuts.
Hero raises to $21.
Hero folds.

Both are acceptable lines depending on what you think this guy's range is. I think calling is the worst option here.

did not have enough hands with villain to make any assumptions. a raise ai did not even cross my mind - i guess it should have? do you make this play alot in these situations?

[Lukie]

on the turn, not so much, but it's definately in my bagotrix.

Figure it's a $21 bet to win a $12 pot, and if we are called, let's say we have 20% equity. Against the range he'd call with, we certainly aren't below 15%, but let's just say 20% for simplicity's sake. So we'd still have about$9 equity if we push here and we are called.

We have $21 on the turn.

50% he folds: we have $33.

50% he calls: we have $9.

Expectation: $21.

I honestly just ball parked the 50/50 guess but it's dead-on.

If you think he folds half the time, you should push, because even though it has the same EV (and higher variance) then a fold, you should pick the more agressive play for metagame reasons.


I think you should fold, by the way, because I don't think this guy is folding half the time.




And yes, I would raise that flop.

[Lukie]

Calling the turn is the 3rd option obviously. But I just don't like it because you are facing a pot-sized bet, you are usually behind here, and your draw has no implied odds...

I think calling here is -ev pretty much always.

[zook]

I raise his flop bet $4 or $5. I mean, you can't ask for a much better flop without a Q and you're letting him take control here. If he calls your raise and that Ac comes then I think you go into check/fold mode.

[crushednuts]

agreed. Calling on the flop gives you no new information, a raise is the best option and I agree w/Lukie about shutting down to a reraise. At least you can clarify his hand for a $4 raise on the flop and avoid facing a $6 bet on the turn..

[stuck]

agreed. Calling on the flop gives you no new information, a raise is the best option and I agree w/Lukie about shutting down to a reraise. At least you can clarify his hand for a $4 raise on the flop and avoid facing a $6 bet on the turn..

Agreed.

[crushednuts]

hmmmmmm....I sense mockery!!! Fiend!! I challenge you to a duel!!!

[martindcx1e]

Results:

Hero calls $6.00

River ($18.35) 3c
Villain pushes. Hero calls.

Villain shows [ Ad, Ts ] two pairs, aces and tens.
Hero shows [ Qd, Qc ] a flush, ace high.

I guess vs. this guy I had implied odds, but this a rare case apparently.

[Lukie]

I guess vs. this guy I had implied odds, but this a rare case apparently.

yeah i wouldn't count on everyone being that bad.

[thnwkd]

at this point i did not know what villain's range was when leading into a pfr like this. is calling the best line on the turn or what?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($29.65)
CO ($33.26)
Button ($21.87)
SB ($4.20)
BB ($61.17)
Hero ($24.15)
UTG+1 ($20.07)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q. MP1 posts a blind of $0.25. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
Hero raises to $1, 6 folds, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($2.35) T, 5, 8 (2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero calls $2.

Turn: ($6.35) A (2 players)
BB bets $6, Hero ?

I think reraising the flop would be the best line. what could villian have? he calls pf and pots the flop, if he puts you on a missed AK this is good. turn comes Ac and he pots it again? so i guess he's not afraid of the A or the flush. Baring a specific read on villian my line would be to fold, i think you're likely beat.