should i bother

[Greedo017]

***** Hand History for Game 4239254056 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Thursday, May 11, 02:08:47 ET 2006
Table Table 95355 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: Peter7921 ( $172.21 )
Seat 6: Wahoo2006 ( $258.70 )
Seat 8: montecarlo07 ( $29.20 )
Seat 2: RunThisTable ( $98.50 )
Seat 10: IDAHADIT ( $146 )
Seat 5: baldr13 ( $84.10 )
Seat 4: qualityatbats ( $212.20 )
Seat 1: AngelAnger ( $90.50 )
Seat 7: TheWheelman1 ( $150.06 )
Seat 9: pan2cho ( $61 )
qualityatbats posts small blind [$0.50].
baldr13 posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Wahoo2006 [ As Qs ]
IDAHADIT: a j no help
Wahoo2006 raises [$3].
TheWheelman1 folds.
montecarlo07 folds.
pan2cho calls [$3].
IDAHADIT raises [$5].
AngelAnger folds.
RunThisTable folds.
Peter7921 folds.
qualityatbats folds.
baldr13 folds.
Wahoo2006 calls [$2].
pan2cho is all-In [$58]
IDAHADIT is all-In [$141]
IDAHADIT: gl pan
Wahoo2006 calls [$141].

ok. i am almost certainly behind pan2cho, and almost certainly ahead of idahadit, idahadit is 95/40/2 and his hobbies include reraising raises and going all-in. i have already doubled off him preflop with aqs vs. his ats. so, here, i am almost certainly ahead except for some small % x where he got lucky. so, should i bother or just wait for a better spot.

[renegaderob1]

I would call, esp if he's done shit like this before...

[givememyleg]

Such a weird hand... you open raise, villian calls, maniac reraises, you call, villian pushes, maniac pushes...

If you think you're definitely behind pancho, which I do as well, then you're basically playing to either get lucky, or to win $80 from maniac. I would fold here and wait for a better spot...

[fasin8ing]

God this happens sometimes on PP .. Its usually something like ...

AK/AQ Vs. AA Vs. QQ/ KK ... 3 way. Thats PP range BTW. Unless your reads tell you otherwise in this scenario.

But in your case with A Q, I get out of the way and kick on back and watch . So vulnerable your hand is. I wouldnt even play A K in this scenario. It would be great just to see a flop right?

[mcatdog]

You're calling 141 and if you call, the side pot will be 170 and the main pot will be 183.

If you think you'll win the side pot more than 60% of the time, that means you only need to win the main pot 20% of the time for this to be profitable...and that'll happen even if his range of hands is AA-KK. If IDAHADIT has been doing this crap a lot, this is a call and it's not even close. Nice call Greed. I'm guessing you won the hand and got bashed by other players at the table?

[salsa4ever]

I would fold.

Calling range for me is 88+, AK+

I don't think AQ is 60% against villain's pushing range of (22+, K2+, A2+). Even if villain shows complete garbage like JTo you're not making that much profit if shortstack has say QQ/KK.

I would call with AK, because I'm not dominated any more by QQ and AK which are likely holdings by the shortstack.

[mcatdog]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 62.8031 % 60.66% 02.14% { AQs }
Hand 2: 37.1969 % 35.05% 02.14% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, A2o+, K2o+ }

PS: If you think the short stack is doing this with QQ and AK, this is a completely obvious call, because then you're 28% against his range, so you only have to be 53% against the big stack. Well, you need to be a little higher than that to beat the rake, but I still insta-call here.

Even if villain shows complete garbage like JTo you're not making that much profit if shortstack has say QQ/KK.

Oh, yes you are. In your scenario a call is +EV by about 30 bucks. Better spots than this don't come along very often.

[dalecooper]

I agree with mcatdog, and he has the math to back it up. Call & cross your fingers. You're not hugely ahead but you're probably making at least a slight profit on this hand a lot of the time.

[nutsinho]

I don't think AQ is 60% against villain's pushing range of (22+, K2+, A2+).

O RLY

[Greedo017]

i think i got out of this what i wanted. basically A. i wanted to make sure i wasn't missing anything, and i wasn't. and B. I think a fair amount of people fold this even though they stand to make $30-40 on the deal in the long run, so, don't.

results:
Wahoo2006 calls [$141].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, 9c, 8h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Tc ]
IDAHADIT shows [ Ts, Jd ] a pair of tens.
Wahoo2006 shows [ As, Qs ] high card ace.
pan2cho shows [ Ac, Kh ] a flush, ace high.
IDAHADIT wins $170 from side pot #1 with a pair of tens.
pan2cho wins $181.50 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.

[mcatdog]

I'm guessing you won the hand and got bashed by other players at the table?

[relayer]

Please, please tell me that idahadit is a losing poker player.

[gabe]

95/40, i call with even less. it would be tricky if pan had a real stack.

nh

[Greedo017]

Please, please tell me that idahadit is a losing poker player.

he ended down 2.75. he was easily the worst player i've ever seen at 100nl. he only ended down 2.75 because his luckbox was on hard.

[EricE]

So vulnerable your hand is.

Poker Yoda?

[salsa4ever]

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 62.8031 % 60.66% 02.14% { AQs }
Hand 2: 37.1969 % 35.05% 02.14% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, A2o+, K2o+ }

PS: If you think the short stack is doing this with QQ and AK, this is a completely obvious call, because then you're 28% against his range, so you only have to be 53% against the big stack. Well, you need to be a little higher than that to beat the rake, but I still insta-call here.

Even if villain shows complete garbage like JTo you're not making that much profit if shortstack has say QQ/KK.

Oh, yes you are. In your scenario a call is +EV by about 30 bucks. Better spots than this don't come along very often.

thanks for doing those calculations. Looks like I've still got a way to go before my instinct can lead me to correct decisions in these spots (which is why i stopped SNGs... thought I was good with ICM math but in reality I was not)