AK in EP vs. LAGG

[samsonite2100]

Paradise 50NL. Villain is superlagg that's been pushing the table around since I've been there. I guess my question is, should I have reraised PF?


Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($23.00)
MP3 ($42.20)
CO ($87.65)
Button ($48.00)
SB ($98.95)
BB ($28.95)
UTG ($44.00)
UTG+1 ($25.75)
Hero ($95.25)
MP1 ($50.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A, K. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, CO raises to $3.5, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50.

Flop: ($7.75) Q, 7, A (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO calls $5.

Turn: ($17.75) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, CO calls $12.

River: ($41.75) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

Final Pot: $41.75

[AHiltz]

Has he been reraising, or just open raising a lot? If reraising, I make a sizeable reraise pf.

I also do not check that river. If he has AQ or 77, then nh sir, otherwise it's ship it.

[EricE]

I wouldn't reraise PF but it is an option. In this case I think it would have revealed your hand after a flop and turn bet.

I value bet that river.

[samsonite2100]

Has he been reraising, or just open raising a lot? If reraising, I make a sizeable reraise pf.

Reraising, open raising, showing his bluff cards, you name it.

As far as betting the river goes, what's your rationale? We're not talking about a standard low stakes moron that bumbled into the hand with A10 and I can value bet. I felt that a river bet would result in one of three scenarios:

1) He calls/raises with a better hand he's been floating with.
2) He raises hard with a worse hand that I have a very hard time calling with TPTK.
3) He folds with a worse hand.

Note that I was prepared to check/call the river to any reasonable bet.

[EricE]

[quote="samsonite2100"]

As far as betting the river goes, what's your rationale?

AQ is going to raise that turn. What are you afraid of here?

Basically his agroness caused you to play more cautiously against him which works in his favor when he has the 2nd best hand.

[samsonite2100]

AQ is going to raise that turn. What are you afraid of here?

1) He calls/raises with a better hand he's been floating with.
2) He raises hard with a worse hand that I have a very hard time calling with TPTK.
3) He folds with a worse hand.

[EricE]

Hehe. I heard you, I just don’t agree. I think my hand is best here because I would have expected a raise out of AQ at some point. He is super lag right? He isn’t acting aggressive here. I bet the river, call if he raises me. End of story. If I lost my stack then so be it. <shrug>

[samsonite2100]

I think my hand is best here because I would have expected a raise out of AQ at some point.

Why do you put him on AQ? Past that, whether he has AQ is kind of irrelevant, IMO, from a metagame aspect. What is relevant is that he's a smart ultra-lagg who has position on me.

I still don't see the point of value-betting the river in this situation. What are the hands that he's calling with and I'm beating in that scenario? AQ, no. AJ and A10, and that's about it. Furthermore, wouldn't you expect a very laggy player to at least reraise my flop bet with Ax?

Also, consider the deep stacks. Are you saying that if you bet, say, $20 on the river and he pushes, you're calling with TPTK? I would find that very hard to do...

[EricE]

I think my hand is best here because I would have expected a raise out of AQ at some point.

Why do you put him on AQ? Past that, whether he has AQ is kind of irrelevant, IMO, from a metagame aspect. What is relevant is that he's a smart ultra-lagg who has position on me.

I still don't see the point of value-betting the river in this situation. What are the hands that he's calling with and I'm beating in that scenario? AQ, no. AJ and A10, and that's about it. Furthermore, wouldn't you expect a very laggy player to at least reraise my flop bet with Ax?

Also, consider the deep stacks. Are you saying that if you bet, say, $20 on the river and he pushes, you're calling with TPTK? I would find that very hard to do...

Ahhh, I see, your afraid of 34,89,56,67,57.
Well, let’s break it down. 34,89,56 had nothing on the flop and would not have stayed in.
67 would have raised the turn…you did say he was aggressive.
That leaves 57 that you are worried about. I very much doubt a pair of 7s would call the turn bet.

Which only leaves A->7,6,5 or Q->7,6,5.
I can’t see him playing Q->7,6,5 but that is debatable, I don’t know him.
So we are left with A->7,6,5 you are worried about. Which again, I would expect a raise out of A7, A6. leaving A5. I value bet the river because he can’t be that lucky.

[samsonite2100]

I value bet the river because he can’t be that lucky.

That's not a great reason to value bet.

Also, as much as I like your hand range analysis here, as I said, I think betting in this sort of hand is less about putting people on specific hands and more about anticipating what this type of player will do in certain spots. I think in this spot, we are not getting called by many hands we beat, and may be pummelled with a huge raise by virtually anything. Again, and this may be a glaring weakness in my game, I'm probably not calling off 1500-200BB stacks with TPTK.

Finally, as stated, I am check/calling a river bet by villain.