Set on turn, how much to bet?

[Borax]

NL tournament 70 left of 180 players, started with 10 000 chips,
9 players on my table. Blinds 1200/600, average stack: 25 700. On this table stacks are 3 000 - 30 000.

Stacks:
Hero (20 900)
Button (18 000)

Dealt to Hero in MP1

SB posts 600
BB posts 1200
UTG folds
Hero calls 1200
4 folds
Butt0n raises to 2400
SB folds
BB folds
Hero calls 1200

Flop
:Th:

Hero bets 4000
Button calls 4000

Turn


Hero

How much do I bet here and why?
What do you put button on?

[givememyleg]

A minraise preflop and flat call on the flop... I don't put him on an overpair once he calls that flop. AQ - AKs? I guess TT is possible if he is a slowplayer, but in that case I would go broke. I'm betting around 2/3 pot on the turn. You bet the flop so why slow down now when you hit your set?

[jdubs]

i put him on A 10, or an underpair like 88,77, even 66,55 ( slow playing by flat calling), maybe even flush draw if he's a donk, or 10 J-10 K, only thing u are behind is 10 10 here, and I dont think he has that from his flat call PF. I bet the pot on this turn....

[chardrian]

with blinds that big and stacks that shallow, I really don't like your limp preflop.

I like his minraise even less. I would think that is AA/KK but I don't know what the level of play is.

As for how you should play it on the turn as played... it is totally dependent on your read. Will your opp try and take down the pot on the turn if you check (even if he just has two overs)? Will he keep chasing if you bet even on the turn if he does have just two overs?

[zenbitz]

What could he have?

The m/r pre-flop doesn't really tell you anything.. but it's probably not utter trash. That makes any 5 or 6 or anything but 9T/TJ single pair hands unlikely. A mid pocket like 77-88 makes sense (in a badly played kinda way). He could have 2 high cards, or a big PP like KK/AA. TT-JJ seem very unlikely to m/r then call flop here.

He called the flop... this implies he has a piece or an over pair. He could have 2 diamonds (AT or JT diamonds?).

You want all the money in the pot, before the river. A diamond killls your action or makes him a flush. An A might scare him off too (if he has < 2 pair).

I think checking here is a little too dangerous, because of the draws... but I think a man-sized bet just gets called or folded. I think I would act kinda weak and throw out 1/2 the pot. If he calls with 2 diamonds then this is a mistake, but he might make a move.

Betting 4000 again is something weak players do, fire 1/2 a bullet on the turn. I would try that. You want to bet an amount that he will raise if possible. If he has nothing, he will probably fold anyway.

You could try just overbetting and open push the turn... This might work if you have an "action" or bluffy image. Like "oh shit, he called my probe bet, please please GO AWAY". I would definitly do that if your stack sizes were reversed (i.e. this is always less convincing from the small stack). Well, it's never very convinincing but it's always harder to call the big stack.

[gabe]

i push this turn, its not much of an overbet. if i think hes aggressive, ill check raise allin, but i doubt he is because of his preflop minraise.

[drmcboy]

whenever I tell you it's a bad limp, trust me, you should not limp.
The flop bets scares me unless you have a line on the min raise. If you had raised pre flop (and been called), you would bet here.
Bet just under half his remaining stack on turn. anything is OK

[Borax]

Thanks for answers. I do not like to raise 99 from EP... but I think I will take that advice.

The hand ended:

Stacks:
Hero (20 900)
Button (18 000)

Dealt to Hero in MP1

SB posts 600
BB posts 1200
UTG folds
Hero calls 1200
4 folds
Butt0n raises to 2400
SB folds
BB folds
Hero calls 1200

Flop


Hero bets 4000
Button calls 4000

Turn

Hero bets 11 600
Button calls and is All in
Hero shows (three 9's)
Button shows (straight and flush draw)

River


Button wins with a straight, K high.

So, he had a strong draw. But it was still a bad call from his wasn't it?


(I then had 2900 left and moved AI with KJs from UTG next hand and got busted by KQs)

[Sprayed]

Thanks for answers. I do not like to raise 99 from EP... but I think I will take that advice.

If you are going to play 99 from EP you either raise it 3x or more or fold. Never limp in when first to act in this stage of the tourney. Some will say that you should never open limp period at any stage. If you would have raised pre-flop you may have stolen the blinds or he may have just called. Letting you know that he doesn't have that strong of a hand and that you maybe ahead on the flop. Bet 2/3 or full pot on the flop to give him the wrong odds to draw. If he calls and you hit trips on the turn, get it all in. Once he hit the 9 on the turn he had a tremendous amount of outs and had to call since he invested so much already.

[zenbitz]

plus his overcards might be good.. ez call by villian... w/p by you

[Borax]

plus his overcards might be good.. ez call by villian... w/p by you

Thanks
I would say that he has mainly got 15 outs since overcards only beats 88 and 77. All the pairs 55, 66, 99 and TT makes me 70% vs.30% to win and I might hold AX making me an even bigger favourite 73% vs. 27%. JJ is less likely given his J and that I didn't raise. I think he needs to put me on a likely T with an A non to make this call good, but I'm not sure. Anyone good at these calculations?