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Any way to calculate the odds of this happening?

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  1. #1

    Default Any way to calculate the odds of this happening?

    Hello, I play short handed "turbo" 6 player sit-n-gos online. I usually play at lower limits, either $5 or $2 buy-ins. The past 16 times I've been heads up (top two places pay) in one of these tournaments, I have finished in 2nd place! This seems like it would almost be statistically impossible. Granted, the exact statistical probability of this happening depends on the amount of chips that you start heads up play with, but still....does anyone have a general idea? It seems like even if I went in with the worst hand every time, I'd get lucky and catch cards to suckout at least once.

    Thanks.
  2. #2
    Work on your HU game.
  3. #3
    Assuming you have a 50/50 chance of winning each game there is a 0.5^16 = %0.0000152587890625 chance of you loseing 16 games in a row or 1 in 65536
    However keeping mind the chances of getting a record such as yours LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL is just as likely as getting a record that looks like WWLLWLWWLWLWLLLW or any other combination of wins and loses that totals 16

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