TPTK, +EV?

[ark4748]

I feel like I went from a donk who went too far with TPTK, to a weak nit who folds too easily. I've been trying to work on putting my money in situations which are +EV but don't involve sets or better.

Villan is 30/5 over 50 hands, $50NL.

Seat 1: Joshisaac ($20.90 in chips)
Seat 2: bigdaddy2927 ($54.85 in chips)
Seat 3: ARKman88 [ AD,QD ] ($48.75 in chips)
Seat 4: OhNoFSM ($38.70 in chips)
Seat 5: killer3141 ($70.30 in chips)
Seat 6: MayflowerAA ($67.10 in chips)
Seat 7: Boutch7 ($50.25 in chips)
Seat 8: DesertBelle ($40.25 in chips)
Seat 9: DreaddLord ($50.00 in chips)
Seat 10: Duder 420 ($33.00 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
DesertBelle posts blind ($0.25), DreaddLord posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
Duder 420 bets $2, Joshisaac folds, bigdaddy2927 folds, ARKman88 calls $2, OhNoFSM folds, killer3141 folds, MayflowerAA folds, Boutch7 folds, DesertBelle folds, DreaddLord folds.

FLOP [board cards 3H,8C,9C ]
Duder 420 bets $5, ARKman88 calls $5.

Meh, my weakest part of the hand I think. Villan slightly overpotted the flop, so I doubt he improved. My thinking was I may be able to take away on the turn, but looking back at stack sizes, I'm starting to think this is a fold.

TURN [board cards 3H,8C,9C,QS ]
Duder 420 bets $26 and is all-in, ARKman88 calls $26.

Another overbet, although with villans stack size is understandable. Based on villans actions so far, I thought this was strong case for KK, AA and thus easy fold. But I began thinking that JJ, TT might play same way.

Board: 3h 8c 9c Qs
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 53.2468 % 53.25% 00.00% { AdQd }
Hand 2: 46.7532 % 46.75% 00.00% { KK+, JJ-TT }

Throw in AK or a few bluffs, and this would clearly be +EV. Of course, its always possible that villan had 99, QQ, etc, but seemed played too fast to be likely. My question is, is this a reasonable range to assign a villan given current action? Or is this KK, AA too much to make this a call?

[andy-akb]

I fold this flop, the board is incredibly coordinated and he is going to be betting too many scare cards to let you float here. Given his stack size any bet will make it very unlikely that he will fold to a raise. Fold the flop. I dont see why he wouldnt play a set like this either, a lot of people raise any PP, so a set is pretty likely, Id expect to see an overpair more though.

[ark4748]

I fold this flop, the board is incredibly coordinated and he is going to be betting too many scare cards to let you float here. Given his stack size any bet will make it very unlikely that he will fold to a raise. Fold the flop. I dont see why he wouldnt play a set like this either, a lot of people raise any PP, so a set is pretty likely, Id expect to see an overpair more though.

What if he has a fullstack? I agree, flop call with his stack size is bad, for some reason I wasnt paying attention to the fact that he was only a half buy-in.

I didnt picture a 30/5 villan raising UTG with 33, although I suppose 88 or 99 are possible. So beat here more often that not, easy fold?

[yorib]

You are forgetting 67+ (spefically, TJ, which he could easily have). I think adding JJ/TT to the range is wrong. He's either on a full-bore bluff, or has you drawing to (at most) 5 outs. This line could easily be KK/AA.

I'd fold the flop because there is no card in the deck that I want to hit. With a Q could be dead to KK/AA (or TJ). With an A I'm dead to AA/AK.

[Miffed22001]

im going to say he has the straight
Im also going to ask if you ever raise here with just ace high? in a bid to push a player betting into you oop off what is often a better hand than yours but also normally weak.

[ark4748]

Wow i must be really tight, I would never raise JT UTG in FR, and wouldnt have put it in 30/5's range either. Villan flipped over KK.

Miffed, maybe I have just been unlucky or maybe its just low stakes, but I seem to have little FE when I raise the flop. TP, overpair, draws, all seem to hang around, and then I'm left holding A-high. I've had more success betting/raising the turn, but with his stack size that was out of the question here. I can see now that with his stack,t raising/folding the flop was a much better option.