High probability steal situations

[IowaSkinsFan]

I'd like to make a thread, which I think would be beneficial to everyone, of every high probability steal situations you can think of. You can post hand histories or just say the example. I'm gonna start, I would try to write them all but there are way too many. If no one likes the idea, fine.

The CO/Button steal:
obvious one, everyone folds to you..In LP raise 2.5x BB(or your preference) or if you haveless than 10x the BB go all in

Paradise Poker Game #1543192737 (Level VI, Game #4) - 100/200 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/06/20-09:38:39.4 (CST) Table "Bancoran" ($10 tournament) -- Seat 9 is the button Seat 2: JHopk2 (2,259.00 in chips) Seat 3: ps147 (1,191.00 in chips) Seat 4: dust man (2,698.00 in chips) Seat 6: redgrape (1,698.00 in chips) Seat 9: tara21 (1,274.00 in chips) Seat 10: Dankster777 (880.00 in chips)
Dankster777: Post Small Blind (100)
JHopk2 : Post Big Blind (200)
Dealing...
Dealt to redgrape [ Kd ]
Dealt to redgrape [ Qd ]
ps147 : Fold
dust man: Fold
redgrape: Raise (1,698)
tara21 : Fold
Dankster777: Fold
JHopk2 : Fold
redgrape: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 500 | JHopk2 lost 200 (folded)
ps147 didn't bet (folded)
dust man didn't bet (folded)
redgrape bet 1,698, collected 1,998, net +300 [ Kd Qd ]
tara21 didn't bet (folded)
Dankster777 lost 100 (folded)

The limped SB steal(read dependant):
When the SB limps and everyone else folded, if you feel he is trying to see a flop cheaply raise him up. Even if he calls you have position and have a likelihood to take the pot.

Paradise Poker Game #1543198277 (Level VII, Game #5) - 150/300 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/06/20-09:44:26.0 (CST) Table "Bancoran" ($10 tournament) -- Seat 2 is the button Seat 2: JHopk2 (1,059.00 in chips) Seat 4: dust man (3,113.00 in chips) Seat 6: redgrape (3,780.00 in chips) Seat 9: tara21 (2,048.00 in chips) dust man: Post Small Blind (150)
redgrape: Post Big Blind (300)
Dealing...
Dealt to redgrape [ 8h ]
Dealt to redgrape [ Jd ]
tara21 : Fold
JHopk2 : Fold
dust man: Call (150)
redgrape: Raise (600)
dust man: Fold
redgrape: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 600 | JHopk2 didn't bet (folded)
dust man lost 300 (folded)
redgrape bet 900, collected 1,200, net +300 [ 8h Jd ]
tara21 didn't bet (folded)

Even Stacks Steal:
This can be very high probability. On the bubble (or with 3 people left) when you have a chip lead and everyone else has an evenish stack you can raise with very high frequency. Here even with high blinds my opps have to fold.

Paradise Poker Game #1543200751 (Level VIII, Game #3) - 250/500 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/06/20-09:46:52.0 (CST) Table "Bancoran" ($10 tournament) -- Seat 2 is the button Seat 2: JHopk2 (759.00 in chips) Seat 6: redgrape (8,193.00 in chips) Seat 9: tara21 (1,048.00 in chips)
redgrape: Post Small Blind (250)
tara21 : Post Big Blind (500)
Dealt to redgrape [ 8s ]
Dealt to redgrape [ Kd ]
JHopk2 : Fold
redgrape: Raise (1,100)
tara21 : Fold
redgrape: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 1,000 | JHopk2 didn't bet (folded)
redgrape bet 1,350, collected 1,850, net +500 [ 8s Kd ]
tara21 lost 500 (folded)

The Squeeze:
There are a lot of variables that really can help this one out.
1. It's bubble time
2. Even stacks
3. Good reads
A squeeze is when you reraise over the top of a raiser and a caller(s). Here Anwar has been raising everything, however I have no reads on ... but even so the position limp is pretty weak.
Paradise Poker Game #1530694757 - Tournament Quickie - 50 player max - 50/100 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/06/13-12:41:23.4 (CST) Table "Quickie 5" (MTT) -- Seat 9 is the button Seat 2: treydaniel (2,615 in chips) Seat 4: MrsBP (3,175 in chips) Seat 6: rush652 (1,485 in chips) Seat 7: Anwar (8,805 in chips) Seat 8: brosetcar (3,435 in chips) Seat 9: redgrape (3,575 in chips) Seat 10: pokerfritzz (2,095 in chips)
pokerfritzz: Post Small Blind (50)
treydaniel: Post Big Blind (100)
Dealing...
Dealt to redgrape [ 4c ]
Dealt to redgrape [ 5c ]
MrsBP : Fold
rush652 : Fold
Anwar : Raise (400)
brosetcar: Call (400)
redgrape: Raise (1750)
pokerfritzz: Fold
treydaniel: Fold
Anwar: Fold
brosetcar: Fold

This is all the HH's I have for now.

[LimpinAintEZ]

my personal favorite is the EP steal with crap - If i'm at a table in a tourney that is playing only the blinds, and/or every time i come into a pot it's folded (my table image = too tight) I will open up my range big time and start stealing...The CO/Button steals are obvious, but when you do it in front, it gets more respect...ONLY works if you have a tight table image, or the table is just playing scared - I have done it with total garbage...

[nogenius]

Great post.

The SB steal when folded to you is another move I use with frequency.

[IowaSkinsFan]

EP Steal:
This is if the table is tight and your image is tight this can be really effective. All you do is lead out a small raise (2xBB can do but I like 2.5xBB). Normally no one would do this without a hand so the table folds like flies.

Paradise Poker Game #1543350406 (Level VI, Game #4) - 100/200 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/06/20-12:02:54.7 (CST) Table "Kirra Point" ($10 tournament) -- Seat 7 is the button Seat 1: Cardshark 6 (2,520.00 in chips) Seat 3: mgchnds69 (1,400.00 in chips) Seat 4: redgrape (2,875.00 in chips) Seat 6: D4m@N (695.00 in chips) Seat 7: hurryupfool (1,420.00 in chips) Seat 8: JBraker (1,090.00 in chips) JBraker : Post Small Blind (100) Cardshark 6: Post Big Blind (200) Dealing... Dealt to redgrape [ Jc ] Dealt to redgrape [ Qc ]

redgrape: Raise (500)
mgchnds69: Fold
D4m@N : Fold
hurryupfool: Fold
JBraker : Fold
Cardshark 6: Fold
redgrape: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 500 | Cardshark 6 lost 200 (folded)
mgchnds69 didn't bet (folded)
redgrape bet 500, collected 800, net +300 [ Jc Qc ]
D4m@N didn't bet (folded)
hurryupfool didn't bet (folded)
JBraker lost 100 (folded)

[IowaSkinsFan]

Attack the big stack:
This is when another have a big chip lead compared to the rest, who are on the bubble, trying to limp ITM. You and him are looking good for ITM, nothing probably will stop you unless you tussle with each other. This is a situation where you go from runner up to winning the thing. Take advantage and build a chip lead.
Here grindindubs has 3000 and i have 2200. Make sure when you do this you have a stack that can really cut into his, at least 2/3's of his.

Paradise Poker Game #1543681788 (Level VII, Game #4) - 150/300 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/06/20-16:00:13.7 (CST) Table "Kythnos" ($10 tournament) -- Seat 8 is the button Seat 2: GrindinDubs (3,380.00 in chips) Seat 3: Ravage67 (2,185.00 in chips) Seat 6: redgrape (2,280.00 in chips) Seat 8: Eukay (435.00 in chips) Seat 10: sandman2 (1,720.00 in chips)
sandman2: Post Small Blind (150)
GrindinDubs: Post Big Blind (300)
Dealing...
Dealt to redgrape [ 3d ]
Dealt to redgrape [ 3s ]
Ravage67: Fold
redgrape: Raise (2,280)
Eukay : Fold
sandman2: Fold
GrindinDubs: Fold
redgrape: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 750 | GrindinDubs lost 300 (folded)
Ravage67 didn't bet (folded)
redgrape bet 2,280, collected 2,730, net +450 [ 3d 3s ]
Eukay didn't bet (folded)
sandman2 lost 150 (folded)


another example: Further definetely doesn't want to mess here because he's pretty much guaranteed at least 2nd place money.

Paradise Poker Game #1543687788 (Level VII, Game #2) - 150/300 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/06/20-16:03:46.5 (CST) Table "Aranuka" ($10 tournament) -- Seat 6 is the button Seat 2: jeffwinters (1,550.00 in chips) Seat 4: furthur (5,062.50 in chips) Seat 6: redgrape (3,387.50 in chips)
jeffwinters: Post Small Blind (150)
furthur : Post Big Blind (300)
Dealing...
Dealt to redgrape [ Kc ]
Dealt to redgrape [ 2h ]
redgrape: Raise (800)
jeffwinters: Fold
furthur : Fold
redgrape: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 750 | jeffwinters lost 150 (folded)
furthur lost 300 (folded)
redgrape bet 800, collected 1,250, net +450 [ Kc 2h ]



Attack the big stack part deux:
You and another player are towering over the rest, it's either bubble or ITM already. Don't let other big stack raise out of your blinds. He's going to have a tough time calling when he's guarenteed ITM if he just takes it easy. This works better if your image is tight and you have seen the big stack try to steal.
Here further wants to steal my blinds, he's tried a lot. But with jeffwinters having a 1000 chips He can't let himself call me when he's guaranteed a second. Another first place builder.

Paradise Poker Game #1543688349 (Level VII, Game #3) - 150/300 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/06/20-16:04:05.6 (CST) Table "Aranuka" ($10 tournament) -- Seat 2 is the button Seat 2: jeffwinters (1,400.00 in chips) Seat 4: furthur (4,762.50 in chips) Seat 6: redgrape (3,837.50 in chips) furthur : Post Small Blind (150)
redgrape: Post Big Blind (300)
Dealing...
Dealt to redgrape [ Th ]
Dealt to redgrape [ As ]
jeffwinters: Fold
furthur : Raise (500)
redgrape: Raise (3,537.50)
furthur : Fold
redgrape: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 1,300 | jeffwinters didn't bet (folded)
furthur lost 650 (folded)
redgrape bet 3,837.50, collected 4,487.50, net +650 [ Th As ]

[IowaSkinsFan]

SB steal:
Easy one. Tight guy in the BB, everyone folds to you and you are in the SB, raise it up.
Paradise Poker Game #1547042767 (Level IV, Game #5) - 30/60 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/06/22-13:15:41.3 (CST) Table "Atata" ($10 tournament) -- Seat 4 is the button Seat 1: ps147 (1,605.00 in chips) Seat 2: uc8tcme (1,305.00 in chips) Seat 3: wkendboater (1,335.00 in chips) Seat 4: perpetual_37 (660.00 in chips) Seat 5: redgrape (1,200.00 in chips) Seat 6: Von Grouper (1,070.00 in chips) Seat 10: sigeng (2,825.00 in chips)
redgrape: Post Small Blind (30)
Von Grouper: Post Big Blind (60)
Dealt to redgrape [ 9h ]
Dealt to redgrape [ 3h ]
sigeng : Fold
ps147 : Fold
uc8tcme : Fold
wkendboater: Fold
perpetual_37: Fold
redgrape: Raise (150)
Von Grouper: Fold
redgrape: Winner -- doesn't show cards
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: 120 | ps147 didn't bet (folded)
uc8tcme didn't bet (folded)
wkendboater didn't bet (folded)
perpetual_37 didn't bet (folded)
redgrape bet 180, collected 240, net +60 [ 9h 3h ]
Von Grouper lost 60 (folded)
sigeng didn't bet (folded)

[IowaSkinsFan]

The weak limp steal:
If you see a lot of weak limpers (either lp and SB... or an MP moderately big stack limp) and your stack is threatening throw it all in.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t3335)
SB (t5705)
Hero (t1040)
UTG (t2090)
MP (t1330)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A , T .
UTG calls t100, 1 fold, Button calls t100, SB completes, Hero raises to t1040

P.S. I took this hand from someone HH, In hope that's okay.

[swiggidy]

The weak limp steal:
If you see a lot of weak limpers (either lp and SB... or an MP moderately big stack limp) and your stack is threatening throw it all in.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t3335)
SB (t5705)
Hero (t1040)
UTG (t2090)
MP (t1330)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A , T .
UTG calls t100, 1 fold, Button calls t100, SB completes, Hero raises to t1040

P.S. I took this hand from someone HH, In hope that's okay.

Isn't this simply proper play intead of a steal attempt. Granted you don't really want a call. I don't think this is recommended with trash. SB could look you up just because.

[spyderracing]

I don't think you really need to give them names (except for the squeeze play). As you play more you just start to pick out situations in which you can steal and other times you can't.

An example of where a steal may not work is where you're attacking the big stack (say big stack is 8k, you're 3k, and you have 2 at 1k each battling for third). If he's a good player he'll know what you're doing, and play along or reraise knowing unless you have a lock hand you're not about to go out 4th. I've gotten people to fold when they have and 80/20 lead over me on the flop, showed my bluff, and gotten them to tilt out 4th anyways and both cripples make the money.

There simply isn't one play or a set of plays that works, it is all dependant on the table situation. Of course if people or screwing you over on your steals and reraising, you just keep playing like that when you have a lock hand, smooth call and let them dig their own grave. Analyze the situation folks, that's all that stealing comes down to.

[swiggidy]

^^^I agree. I love the idea of this topic, but I think listing hands where it worked isn't the best way. Maybe they had a shit hand and that' s why they folded. I'm not arguing with you list, these are all good times to consider attempting a bluff.

The KQ at the beginning isn't so much a steal as a value bet right? Sorry, being picky.

That bein said, I'll throw out another idea, the "I'm a tightie" steal:
If you haven't bet for 2 rounds, throw in a 3x raise from middle to late position. You will almost always get the table to fold (unless it's crazy active table). Additionally, when you finally get a good hand someone will be more likely to look you up.

I guess we could call this the middle/late position steal. So now we have:
the SB steal, the BB steal, the EP steal, the MP/LP steal, the Co/Button steal. I think that covers it.

[spyderracing]

Stealing again is more about image and situations where you can exert leverage than position. It seems like most people are just listing off what seat they're stealing from.

[swiggidy]

Stealing again is more about image and situations where you can exert leverage than position. It seems like most people are just listing off what seat they're stealing from.

ba-dump-bump chhh

But seriousley, it's image + situation + position. Position is still important

[IowaSkinsFan]

Stealing again is more about image and situations where you can exert leverage than position. It seems like most people are just listing off what seat they're stealing from.

ba-dump-bump chhh

But seriousley, it's image + situation + position. Position is still important

I think that stack sizes and position are way more important in lower stakes, because no one sees image in low stakes. and I don't agree with that statement, pretty much my situations have been a lot about stack sizes.

[taipan168]

The any two cards SB vs BB bubble steal:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t2985)
Button (t3115)
Hero (t1900)
BB (t5500)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4, 3.
2 folds, Hero raises to t1900, 1 fold.

Final Pot: t1975

[IowaSkinsFan]

The any two cards SB vs BB bubble steal:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t2985)
Button (t3115)
Hero (t1900)
BB (t5500)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4, 3.
2 folds, Hero raises to t1900, 1 fold.

Final Pot: t1975

I don't like this one that much without a read on BB, because his stack gives him odds to call with a wide range of hands.

[spyderracing]

Stealing again is more about image and situations where you can exert leverage than position. It seems like most people are just listing off what seat they're stealing from.

ba-dump-bump chhh

But seriousley, it's image + situation + position. Position is still important

Agreed, but the position (in my mind atleast) comes into play more when you think you'll have to play after a flop, and that's totally situational. On a loose table, you're going to have to play more flops, and on a tighter table it should be pretty evident what you're up against when you get a caller or reraiser and you shouldn't have to play a flop so often (you may ocassionally run into the reraiser who knows what he and you are doing and may push over with anything, but I tend to give this player the benefit of the doubt). Of course there is the benefit of not having to put it past so many people when you are in position, but that's a given.

[taipan168]

The any two cards SB vs BB bubble steal:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t2985)
Button (t3115)
Hero (t1900)
BB (t5500)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4, 3.
2 folds, Hero raises to t1900, 1 fold.

Final Pot: t1975

I don't like this one that much without a read on BB, because his stack gives him odds to call with a wide range of hands.

Agreed, but with <5x BB when it's folded to me and no super short stack who might bust out before me do I have any other choice? This is +EV at all SNGPT calling ranges (+1.7% at range 4 - and BB isn't going to risk 27% of his stack to call with crap).

BB would have to be calling with looser than 22+,A2+,K3o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q6s+,JTo,J9s+,T9s to make this -EV.

[IowaSkinsFan]

The any two cards SB vs BB bubble steal:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t2985)
Button (t3115)
Hero (t1900)
BB (t5500)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4, 3.
2 folds, Hero raises to t1900, 1 fold.

Final Pot: t1975

I don't like this one that much without a read on BB, because his stack gives him odds to call with a wide range of hands.

Agreed, but with <5x BB when it's folded to me and no super short stack who might bust out before me do I have any other choice? This is +EV at all SNGPT calling ranges (+1.7% at range 4 - and BB isn't going to risk 27% of his stack to call with crap).

BB would have to be calling with looser than 22+,A2+,K3o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q6s+,JTo,J9s+,T9s to make this -EV.

agreed.

[soft]

My best steal :

calls from button with a some hand and the flop comes



I couldnt have missed more with my hand (whatever it was), everybody checks, I make a half size bet and everybody folds...

Why: There is too many draws out there, so if anybody did have an ace they would bet here...