Stars $22 180: 99 UTG FInal Table

[baudib]

Do you prefer a stop and go or push here? I'm not folding this.

PokerStars Game #5483841594: Tournament #27698495, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (600/1200) - 2006/07/07 - 16:33:14 (ET)
Table '27698495 16' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: EspenX (36227 in chips)
Seat 2: baudib (17099 in chips)
Seat 3: WillieDM3 (12128 in chips)
Seat 4: QuadCowboyz (74618 in chips)
Seat 5: XT@TX (40694 in chips)
Seat 6: Jeff3232 (27152 in chips)
Seat 7: ca2nv (20240 in chips)
Seat 8: johnhoang73 (19849 in chips)
Seat 9: Stokes003 (21993 in chips)
EspenX: posts the ante 75
baudib: posts the ante 75
WillieDM3: posts the ante 75
QuadCowboyz: posts the ante 75
XT@TX: posts the ante 75
Jeff3232: posts the ante 75
ca2nv: posts the ante 75
johnhoang73: posts the ante 75
Stokes003: posts the ante 75
Stokes003: posts small blind 600
EspenX: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to baudib [9c 9s]
baudib: ???

[Rondavu]

Make a standard raise. Fold to a push unless the villain is pushy with low pockets. Push most flops. Check scary ones, because villains check behind when they miss in that spot more often than you think.

[baudib]

The standard raise UTG is generally scarier than a push, right? Does JJ/AQ generally just call here?

[zenbitz]

Why let overcards (even a single one!) see a flop?
Limping or 3x raising and getting like 4 callers gives you naseua as well.

push.

[baudib]

Well, OK. That's exactly what I did and I busted out, called by JJ.

If I get called by AJ+, 88+, what's my equity here with the full table to act?

This seems to be a recurring problem for me, busting out late in tournaments pushing from EP with hands like 99-JJ, AK. (Incidentally, I didn't have the most sterling table image, and the guy who called me with JJ was most assuredly itching to bust me.)

Anyone like a limp?

[zenbitz]

This is called "running out of chips".

Say you limp or m/r and JJ calls or raises a callable amount. Or in some way you see a flop. Are folding on a T-high flop? J-high? 1 face card?

If you are unhappy with the occasional crushing here, I guess you have to just fold it UTG.

[Sprayed]

Hate a limp and 3x raise. Push pre-flop. You are being results oriented here I think. People just don't call with any hand hoping to bust a specific player unless there's a bounty on their head. If they are then they are letting their emotions take control. Depending upon villain’s stack size he was probably right to call with JJ regardless.

[swiggidy]

If I get called by AJ+, 88+, what's my equity here with the full table to act?

That's 7% of hands. So by a rough estimate .93^9 =
52% chance someone does not have a hand.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 56.1372 % 55.37% 00.77% { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 43.8628 % 43.09% 00.77% { 99 }

So 52% fold + 48% call * 43.9% = 75% ish

[drmcboy]

I tend to raise, but I think pushing is better. I want to raise because I push and get folds, then pay the blinds, I now have the same stack, and if I pick up a big hand I want action on, I hate pushing 17k in there.

But lately, I think most people are too stupid and I should just push here, and 3x the AA.

[chardrian]

You have almost 15x the BB - I don't see why so many people are advocating the push here. I don't think you are desperate enough to push yet. Instead, I think you are probably thinking I haven't seen a hand this good all tourney - time to push. But poker is situational. So what's your situation?

You are UTG with 8 players left to act. You have a good but not outstanding hand. You are semi-small stacked, but your stack will make a big dent into any other player except for the big stack. You have close to 15x the BB. Raising to 3xBB and then having to fold will leave you with over 10xBB and still enough of a stack that you will have folding equity. The only hand that will call a push will most likely have you beat or will be a coin-toss. But to me, the most important part of this hand is that the only hand that will call or raise a 3xBB raise will be the same range of hands that will call your push. Because of that, I'd much prefer a 3xBB raise and then play it out as you see fit.

[Sprayed]

You have almost 15x the BB - I don't see why so many people are advocating the push here. I don't think you are desperate enough to push yet. Instead, I think you are probably thinking I haven't seen a hand this good all tourney - time to push. But poker is situational. So what's your situation?

You are UTG with 8 players left to act. You have a good but not outstanding hand. You are semi-small stacked, but your stack will make a big dent into any other player except for the big stack. You have close to 15x the BB. Raising to 3xBB and then having to fold will leave you with over 10xBB and still enough of a stack that you will have folding equity. The only hand that will call a push will most likely have you beat or will be a coin-toss. But to me, the most important part of this hand is that the only hand that will call or raise a 3xBB raise will be the same range of hands that will call your push. Because of that, I'd much prefer a 3xBB raise and then play it out as you see fit.

Can you comment on why you tend to look at stack sizes in relation to the bb compared to the M approach? Is it because M makes some play hastily? He has an M of 6 in this example.

[chardrian]

I think M is overemphasized in the late stages of tournies where the blinds are so big compared to everyone's stack sizes.

Your most important weapon in any tourney is Fold Equity. When it is late in a tourney, people are not worrying as much about their M as they are about surviving. As long as you keep at least 7xBB you will almost always have Fold Equity.

99 is a good hand, but there is also a good chance someone has a better hand behind you and you are not yet at the point where you simply cannot get away from this hand. I like the raise better.

[Sprayed]

I think M is overemphasized in the late stages of tournies where the blinds are so big compared to everyone's stack sizes.

Your most important weapon in any tourney is Fold Equity. When it is late in a tourney, people are not worrying as much about their M as they are about surviving. As long as you keep at least 7xBB you will almost always have Fold Equity.

99 is a good hand, but there is also a good chance someone has a better hand behind you and you are not yet at the point where you simply cannot get away from this hand. I like the raise better.

Got it. Very interesting. Thanks

[gus27]

Tough situation
I would push if the blinds were going up in the next couple minutes. If not.... the following move makes very little sense but i use it every now and then and it amazes me how often it will let me scoop up the blinds. THe UTG Min Raise...Late in tourneys this seems to work for me on occaision..i don't know why but it does, how a BB couldn't make the call here i'll never know, but it seems like this would be the ideal situation for such a move. You have a loose image..if you have been raising 3-4x BB a min raise will look very suspicious, also if you get called your probably ahead, the trouble here is a C-bet is costly, however given the right texture can be very effective. This only seems to work UTG. in your situation i'm sure JJ would have at least called....if he raises, you have the chance to get away from the hand with at least a few chips. In my experience a limp is going to get raised significantly

[swiggidy]

chard, I don't like the new avatar

[chardrian]

we shemales get bad reps - I'm used to it.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I don't understand your obsession with shemales.... However it's kinda funny... lol.

[chardrian]

I don't understand your obsession with shemales.... However it's kinda funny... lol.

Imagine how my wife feels.

[swiggidy]

we shemales get bad reps - I'm used to it.

Hmmm, you could suggest August be shemale avatar month. You know to like raise awarness...

I'm not knocking the shemales, I just thing you can do better.