Anyone letting this go.....?

[kevster]

Speed SNG - ITM. Blinds are at 200/400

[Jul 5 15:12:32] : Hand Start.
[Jul 5 15:12:32] : Seat 1 : kevcastle has $8,670
[Jul 5 15:12:32] : Seat 2 : felix1313 has $5,960
[Jul 5 15:12:32] : Seat 9 : romq has $3,370
[Jul 5 15:12:32] : kevcastle is the dealer.
[Jul 5 15:12:32] : felix1313 posted small blind.
[Jul 5 15:12:32] : romq posted big blind.
[Jul 5 15:12:32] : Game [21] started with 3 players.
[Jul 5 15:12:32] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Jul 5 15:12:32] : Seat 1 : kevcastle has Jh Jc
[Jul 5 15:12:36] : kevcastle called 400 and raised 800
[Jul 5 15:12:38] : felix1313 folded.
[Jul 5 15:12:45] : romq called 800
[Jul 5 15:12:45] : Dealing flop.
[Jul 5 15:12:45] : Board cards [8s 4h Ks]
[Jul 5 15:12:49] : romq bet 2,170 and is All-in
[Jul 5 15:12:53] : kevcastle ??

[swiggidy]

That's tough. He could have 78. What's the buy-in?

I really don't like the min-raise pre-flop, you're giving him odds to call and stacks aren't big enough to find out where you are post-flop. With him under 10BB I raise to at least 1/3 his stack, 1200. Maybe just make it 2000. Then, if he caught the K it sucks, but you can feel better about the call.

[donkbee]

Reads?

Looks like a stop and go to me. Perhaps a flush draw. If he has the king, doesn't he check/raise instead?

[pokerroomace]

Reads?

Looks like a stop and go to me. Perhaps a flush draw. If he has the king, doesn't he check/raise instead?

Check/raise? What? Any player is just as capable of slow playing the hand as betting allin here with the big pot.
Also, there is no way he is on a flush draw or that you can consider that a possibility in these circumstances. It's just too small a possibility.

I think the raise you made here is alright. But like swigg said, raising bigger might have been better.

I would definitely call his allin raise here. The chances that he hit the King on this flop is very, very unlikely. I would make this allin bet that he made with a hand like AT or if I had an 8 in my hand. The chances are that you yourself have missed the flop and allin bet here is a great chance to steal the pot. If an Ace would have flopped it would be a much more difficult situation and I'd probably lay my Jacks down (since it takes some guts to bet against an ace on the table against the initial raiser with an allin move, also there is a much higher chance that he was holding an Ace. Ax is called with a lot more than Kx.)

Two more things to note. You are already in the money. There is much less pressure on your opponent and he'll find it easier to make an allin bluff. If there were 4 people left he'd be a lot more nervous about making this move and might not even make the move. Also, your pot odds in this hand are good. And you have a big stack. Loosing this hand won't hurt you.

I say you should definitely make the call here. No question about it.

[zenbitz]

He has either a K, an 8, or a flushdraw. Pot is 2000 and he has 2100 behind, so he has no room to manuver. Actually, he could have just about anything here - including s/p rockets.

The question is - can we narrow down his holdings by pre-flop play, or does he litterally have any two here? I think we can presume that you could have any two. Given his shortness, I would actually put him on a decent hand, since if he had crap he's much better off folding or pushing PF.

I *think* the pot odds here are largely irrelvent. You are either ahead - even if he has a f/d you should call at 1:1 or worse, or drawing to 2 outs (should fold).

This is a read-based call (aren't they all). The more credit you give the player, the more likely I call - because 1) a good player would have likely re-raised pre-flop with a pocket pair 2) a good player is more likely to realize that this flop missed you.

A mediocre player has to have a K or be slow playing to make this move.

[swiggidy]

Also, there is no way he is on a flush draw or that you can consider that a possibility in these circumstances. It's just too small a possibility.

This is not even remotely true. If I had 2 I push this everytime. You're a short stack with a tiny bit of FE and a stong draw if they call.

There is a 5% chance he has the flush draw. It's not super likely, but it's not negligible (same for the K).

[Staresy]

I really don't like the min-raise pre-flop

he didn't min-raise (this time! - jk Kevster!)

kevcastle called 400 and raised 800

As played, I think I make the call here. If he has the K, good for him. But this could so easily be a draw or even a stop 'n' go (prolly without even realising he's done it) with a pair smaller than your JJ.

[pokerroomace]

Also, there is no way he is on a flush draw or that you can consider that a possibility in these circumstances. It's just too small a possibility.

This is not even remotely true. If I had 2 I push this everytime. You're a short stack with a tiny bit of FE and a stong draw if they call.

There is a 5% chance he has the flush draw. It's not super likely, but it's not negligible (same for the K).

Ye... 5% is basically nothing. What I meant to say is: you can't give a big percentage of being on a flush draw. Like 20%+. The person I was replying to made it sound as if there was 33% chance he was on a flush draw - which is a ridiculous thing to think.

Anyway, it doesn't matter so much if he is on a flush draw because you're ahead anyway. If you give him 5% for the flush draw - you might as well include in the chances that it is a complete bluff or that he has 8s.

If you do give him 5% for the flush draw. Then you're giving him an extra 1.7% chance of winning altogether (since he will hit his flush about 1 in 3 times). 1.7% to me is negligible.

[baudib]

I think there's a pretty good chance that he is doing a stop and go with a smaller pocket pair, with a 5 percent shot at a total bluff with like AT.

[swiggidy]

Ye... 5% is basically nothing. What I meant to say is: you can't give a big percentage of being on a flush draw. Like 20%+. The person I was replying to made it sound as if there was 33% chance he was on a flush draw - which is a ridiculous thing to think.

Anyway, it doesn't matter so much if he is on a flush draw because you're ahead anyway. If you give him 5% for the flush draw - you might as well include in the chances that it is a complete bluff or that he has 8s.

If you do give him 5% for the flush draw. Then you're giving him an extra 1.7% chance of winning altogether (since he will hit his flush about 1 in 3 times). 1.7% to me is negligible.

This is a case of me getting my head stuck up math's ass.

Statisically, with two spades on a flop and one opponent, villain will have two spades in hand 5% of the time. If they go all-in I believe it's more likely. I don't think 20% is an absurd number, but you're right. With a flush draw we're ahead, if he has it 20% of the time, hero only looses 5%.

you might as well include in the chances that it is a complete bluff or that he has 8s

I think you should

[pokerroomace]

I think there's a pretty good chance that he is doing a stop and go with a smaller pocket pair, with a 5 percent shot at a total bluff with like AT.

I would give him way way higher than that, that he is on a total bluff with A hi. I would definitely give him 10% on A hi here, but more realistically I'd give him 20% maybe even a bit higher (i'm not joking).

If I had to guess the exact hand he has atm - I'd put him on A-hi. I know that I myself, would definitely consider making this move with A-hi or if I had paired the board in anyway (depends on the read that he has on you too, but in general I'd consider making this move).

I think you have to make the call here, because you can put him on such a big range. The chances that he has a K are less than 50% I would say. And you're getting paid 2 to 1 on this hand. Great odds. Furthermore, you're already ITM and loosing this hand won't hurt you're stack.


What was the end result in this hand? Did you fold? Or did you call? And if so, what did he have?

[kevster]

I guess I shouldn't have posted this the day before I went off to France for a few days! Sorry for the late post.

Some interesting comments - thanks guys - especially Staresy's min-raise comment :P

I was happy enough to call here and it still looks a decent play to me. Result? He had the King of course. "That's Poker".