AJ, J high flop and a caller ($11 FO)

[donkbee]

No reads other than that Karlos was playing a lot of hands and I was beginning to think he was a big big fish. What should I be doing here? If I'm check/calling some amount, what is the most I should be calling?

PokerStars Game #5509623876: Tournament #27318525, $10+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/07/09 - 23:04:02 (ET)
Table '27318525 133' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: jrickster (2150 in chips)
Seat 2: courtiebee (1830 in chips)
Seat 3: prtpat (2215 in chips)
Seat 4: Karlos Jr (1490 in chips)
Seat 5: coolnix (2020 in chips)
Seat 6: dbleB (2820 in chips)
Seat 7: cbilljones (1215 in chips)
Seat 8: porto2fut (1310 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 9: bel2026 (4025 in chips)
dbleB: posts small blind 15
cbilljones: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to courtiebee [Js Ad]
porto2fut: folds
bel2026: folds
jrickster: folds
courtiebee: raises 70 to 100
prtpat: folds
Karlos Jr: calls 100
coolnix: folds
dbleB: folds
cbilljones: calls 70
*** FLOP *** [Jd 8c 5s]
cbilljones: checks
courtiebee: bets 180
Karlos Jr: calls 180
cbilljones: folds
*** TURN *** [Jd 8c 5s] [2s]
porto2fut has returned
courtiebee: bets 400
Karlos Jr: calls 400
*** RIVER *** [Jd 8c 5s 2s] [3c]
courtiebee:

[Anaemik]

I fire the last bullet. If I'm beat by a set (possible), overpair (unlikely) or 2 pair (very unlikely), I'm pretty certin opp wouldn't be waiting for the river to check raise on a board that heavy with draws, and that I'd be hearing from him by the turn at the latest. If I bet on the river and get raised, I'm reading it as a steal attempt on a broken draw (T9/76 or 2 clubs, possibly overcards).

I'm so certain that TPTK is good in this instance that I probably go broke with it.

[baudib]

I totally agree.

The weird thing about AJ is that, while it's a trap hand a lot of the time, in a situation like this you can be fairly confident that you have the best hand. Something like a pair of queens or better would probably reraise preflop and reraise on the flop. The rest of the board makes it extremely unlikely that he just outdrew you.

The fact that he's a bad player probably makes it more likely that he has something like AA, though.

Still, I fully expect a player of this type to have something like 76, A5, or J9 that I would try to get as many chips in here as possible.

[drmcboy]

He can have J9 but not J8?

Check call, without a read to do otherwise. You force the draw to bet if he wants to win, and avoid going broke it you are beat.

Obv if you think he can call here with a hand as bad as 65 or something you would value bet, but against most opps cc should make more and lose less.

I would call any amount. The best thing about a check is in invites him to set you in.

[Sprayed]

He can have J9 but not J8?

Check call, without a read to do otherwise. You force the draw to bet if he wants to win, and avoid going broke it you are beat.

Obv if you think he can call here with a hand as bad as 65 or something you would value bet, but against most opps cc should make more and lose less.

I would call any amount. The best thing about a check is in invites him to set you in.

I have to agree. With his calling it tells me that he is either on a draw or he has a weaker J. Just check/call the river.

[zenbitz]

check/call seems right to me. I'm not sure I call a huge over bet. It's probably correct to do so though.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I wouldn't check call the river... If he has a weaker J he will call your bet, but not bet if it's checked. It's pretty unlikely he has two pair. set is possible, but i think it is less possible then a weaker J or some draw. With this logic isn't it +EV?

[zenbitz]

There is 1460 in the pot. cbee has 1200 behind villian has only 800...

OK, so ignore my bet about not calling a push. You have to call 800 more. I can see the arguement for betting here. The only reason not to is that a missed draw might bet if you check.

[baudib]

Top-pair top kicker on a seemingly safe board where an overpair is extremely unlikely against a fishy player -- this absolutely demands a value bet on the river. I think checking is frankly absurd unless you have a read that he makes big bluffs on the river.

[drmcboy]

what % of the time do you think he has a draw vs a J here? That's where we disagree. Most of the time, IMO, he has a draw, and therefore no hand, and cannot call a bet, but will often bet himself.

[bode]

what % of the time do you think he has a draw vs a J here? That's where we disagree. Most of the time, IMO, he has a draw, and therefore no hand, and cannot call a bet, but will often bet himself.

while i do agree with this, this could also be a JK/JQ hand where he may think you have the Jx and would then call another modest bet.

[baudib]

you'd be surprised how often someone calls this with a pair of 8s.

[baudib]

That's a fairly draw-free flop, too.

[drmcboy]

KJ will almost always raise one street or the other. You can't hardly have more straight draws than you have on that board.