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66 UTG 4-handed ($22, 2 tables)

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  1. 07-12-2006 03:16 AM #1
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    Default 66 UTG 4-handed ($22, 2 tables)

    We're ITM since it's two tables. No real reads because I was playing too many tables, but I knew he had something decent. Fold? Maybe I shouldn't have raised this in the first place? Ah I don't know.

    PokerStars Game #5532620589: Tournament #27962576, $20+$2 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (300/600) - 2006/07/12 - 01:54:41 (ET)
    Table '27962576 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
    Seat 6: hamilscore (3452 in chips)
    Seat 7: courtiebee (8880 in chips)
    Seat 8: Red Sox 07 (9458 in chips)
    Seat 9: tjt140 (5210 in chips)
    hamilscore: posts the ante 50
    courtiebee: posts the ante 50
    Red Sox 07: posts the ante 50
    tjt140: posts the ante 50
    tjt140: posts small blind 300
    hamilscore: posts big blind 600
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to courtiebee [6c 6d]
    courtiebee: raises 900 to 1500
    Red Sox 07: folds
    tjt140: folds
    hamilscore: raises 1902 to 3402 and is all-in
    courtiebee:
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.

    blog: http://donkeybrainspoker.com/


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  2. 07-12-2006 03:40 AM #2
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    given stack sizes, I think you have to call.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
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  3. 07-12-2006 05:19 AM #3
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    calling this
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  4. 07-12-2006 12:41 PM #4
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    Initial raise is fine - although I don't like <3x here (personal opinion)

    This is a pot odds question. You are getting 2.8:1 (unless my math is wrong... probably 3:2 against that happening). You are either a 55:45 (~33%) favorite or 4:1 dog (~67%).

    Assuming range of 77+/AJ+ weighted by number of possible hands in range.

    This is a very close to EV neutral call.
    Throw in the chance he's bluffing, has AX/KQ/22-55 plus table image plus the fact that you make real money if you win = marginal call.
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  5. 07-12-2006 12:55 PM #5
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    Why even bother?
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  6. 07-12-2006 02:06 PM #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stripclubjunkie
    Why even bother?
    What are you talking about?
    Quote Originally Posted by Fnord View Post
    Why poker fucks with our heads: it's the master that beats you for bringing in the paper, then gives you a milkbone for peeing on the carpet.

    blog: http://donkeybrainspoker.com/


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  7. 07-12-2006 02:24 PM #7
    Stripclubjunkie
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    Quote Originally Posted by courtiebee
    Quote Originally Posted by Stripclubjunkie
    Why even bother?
    What are you talking about?
    Raising into shorty, in the bb, which will push alot of hands, and you cant call his push...

    equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
    Hand 1: 45.3277 % 45.11% 00.22% { 66 }
    Hand 2: 54.6723 % 54.46% 00.22% { 88+, A8s+, KJs+, A8o+, KJo+ }
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  8. 07-12-2006 03:32 PM #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stripclubjunkie
    Quote Originally Posted by courtiebee
    Quote Originally Posted by Stripclubjunkie
    Why even bother?
    What are you talking about?
    Raising into shorty, in the bb, which will push alot of hands, and you cant call his push...

    equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
    Hand 1: 45.3277 % 45.11% 00.22% { 66 }
    Hand 2: 54.6723 % 54.46% 00.22% { 88+, A8s+, KJs+, A8o+, KJo+ }
    Um if you are a 45-55 dog I think you have to call the push with all the dead money (even if most of it was yours to begin with).

    What fraction of hands is the above? Like 25%?
    So, 75% you win the blinds (modulo the other two guys) +800 or so
    25% you win ~4000 45% of the time +450
    25% you lose ~3400 55% of the time -467

    You are still way +EV here.
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