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($60) Missed value here with AK?

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  1. #1

    Default ($60) Missed value here with AK?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    Hero (t1660)
    BB (t1840)
    UTG (t1420)
    UTG+1 (t1650)
    MP1 (t1330)
    MP2 (t1920)
    CO (t1220)
    Button (t2460)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with A, K.
    6 folds, Hero raises to t90, BB calls t60.

    Flop: (t180) K, 3, Q (2 players)
    Hero bets t140, BB calls t140.

    Turn: (t460) 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets t275, BB calls t275.

    River: (t1010) 8 (2 players)
    Hero checks...

    ---

    Villian is a marginally winning multitabler, who in my opinion is a bit loose in his early game play and calls raises with marginal hands.

    How do you like my line? On the river, I'm planning to call a reasonable bet.
  2. #2
    That's about how I would play it (which doesn't mean much )
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  3. #3
    BreakfastMan's Avatar
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    Why check on the river? Are you hoping for him to bluff at the pot or do you think your beat?

    I would bet the river here making the assumption I am ahead, and he has shown a willingness to call so far.
    Thanks,
    BreakfastMan
  4. #4
    Given that villain is a known multi-tabler, and that the turn paired 3s, I think it's pretty safe to assume that villain doesn't have a set, but might have 2 pair and more likely worse. Also, given the lack of turn aggression, I think it's safe to assume that villain is looking for a cheap showdown or drawing. This essentially puts the hand range at KJ/KT or TJ. There's not many kings left, so it's actually about 50/50 as to which hand he has. Given he's a multitabler, I would value TJ more in my estimates because logically, he's probably thinking he has implied odds to call down.

    What's the best river line? Well it depends on villain. If you think that if you check, villain will bet a worse hand often enough that check/call is a profitable line, then that's probably right. In this spot, I would think that bet-fold is also a good line. If you're thinking about value betting the river, the right amount to bet is the amount you would be willing to call up to if you were to go the check-call route.

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