Should I save my chips?

[DoGGz]

Such a huge pot here and I'm playing my table well anyway. They probably have AA KK QQ, so there are a lot of outs vs me. Should I just fold here and wait for a better spot?

PokerStars Game #259099417: Tournament #18569976, Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) - 2006/01/30 - 23:58:04 (ET)
Table '18469976 164' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Jeryleee (1165 in chips)
Seat 2: catfish1923 (2250 in chips)
Seat 3: Carmel (9245 in chips)
Seat 4: techboyyy (11025 in chips)
Seat 6: mMagic_cards (7647 in chips)
Seat 7: rhino_1001 (3996 in chips)
Seat 8: pokermda (2606 in chips)
Seat 9: shar1ngan (2780 in chips)
Jeryleee: posts the ante 25
catfish1923: posts the ante 25
Carmel: posts the ante 25
techboyyy: posts the ante 25
mMagic_cards: posts the ante 25
rhino_1001: posts the ante 25
pokermda: posts the ante 25
shar1ngan: posts the ante 25
catfish1923: posts small blind 100
Carmel: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mMagic_cards [Ah Ad]
techboyyy: folds
mMagic_cards: raises 400 to 600
rhino_1001: raises 3396 and is all-in
pokermda: folds
shar1ngan: folds
Jeryleee: calls 1165 and is all-in
catfish1923: folds
Carmel: raises 8896 and is all-in
RED6 is connected
mMagic_cards: ???????

[Bluffalufagus]

i call just for the reason if you beat carmel and lose to the other two you stay even so you really only have to worry about his cards really. If you all were even in chips it would be a different story, to me. I think my logic suxors

[Sprayed]

Should I just fold here and wait for a better spot?

Ah, no. You have AA and this is a great opportunity to build a big stack. I would never fold AA in this situation. You must accumulate chips in order to make the big money. You want to be up against KK and QQ. I would be willing to bet that you are up against a medium pp, QQ+, or A10+. So what if you lose. You are going in with the best hand.

[Easy17]

i heard of someone folding AA once but i think they lied

[pgil]

thats what you want to see pf when holding AA isnt it.

[dthorne04]

thats what you want to see pf when holding AA isnt it.

Hrm, not really...the more people in the hand=less edge your aces have.

I call and pray, even with the way you're owning the table.

[gabe]

thats what you want to see pf when holding AA isnt it.

Hrm, not really...the more people in the hand=less edge your aces have.

I call and pray, even with the way you're owning the table.

more people=more $$

[Fimanoid]

I don't think there is any way you can lay this down. I'm guessing at least one (but probably two) of the players are holding AK/AQ. Third AI is definately a high pocket pair (most likely QQ). Put the money in and hope that aces hold up.

[chardrian]

Is this a serious question?

[AHiltz]

If you were in a 9 person sat that gave 2 seats to the real tourney, and you held AA and all 8 others went in, you'd fold. Any other time push em.

[DoGGz]

But I'm playing my table very well, I don't want to get bad beat out.

[Venster]

Yes fold they are not suited!!! I second chardrian, is this a wind up?Dream situation to be in . Two shortish stacks all in .In effect you are heads up with similar sized stack who may well have gone all in with just mid class hand in order to keep you out. Insta call anytime anywhere!
And with all due respect nobody owns a table enough to pass up edges like this.

[zenbitz]

What do you think they have? 2 jokers?

[ake]

I doubt your edge over the table is big enough to pass this card edge. Not to mention that 2 people might be facing elimination and the table could be breaking up soon

[Stripclubjunkie]

Call or I will hunt you down.

[ilikeaces86]

I usually fold this b/c I can outplay them postflop down the road with no risk.

[Stripclubjunkie]

I usually fold this b/c I can outplay them postflop down the road with no risk.

Are you serious?

[Miffed22001]

I usually fold this b/c I can outplay them postflop down the road with no risk.

Are you serious?

ok
i see the thinking here but i dont agree. But thats dangerous in itself!

But I'm playing my table very well, I don't want to get bad beat out.

Dont you normally kick my arse for such speak?

[studboyjoe]

Call, you lose the hand you're out, you win the hand, you're in position to win the tourney. You only have to beat Carmel to make money on this hand, even if you lose to either of the other two.

[DoGGz]

I folded

[mcatdog]

This is probably one of those threads where a few expert players get together in a chatroom and decide to defend some horrible play, and see if they can get the rest of the posters on the forum to agree with them. I don't know why anyone thinks it's funny, to be honest.

[Stripclubjunkie]

I folded

Did you win it?

[boost]

I folded

Did you win it?

rofl

[krimson]

I don't think you should fold here regardless of the stack sizes, but the fact that you cover two of your three opponents by nearly a factor two makes the fold even worse.
If you call AI (about 7k more chips) there will be about 7k in the side pot with the large stack, and about 13k in the remaining pot. Basically you face about 20% risk of being bad beaten by the big stack. As long as you survive that you will get back at least as many chips as you would if you folded, and you get an about 60-70% shot at tripling up.
All this is of course under the assumption that none of the others hold AA. But a priori it is unlikely, and the play of the two short stacks would make sense with many weaker hands. The big stack probably has AA or KK, but if he has AA you are definitely not at a very large risk of busting out.
The upshot is that I think that folding AA is about as sensible as calling with 72o in this spot.

[jdubs]

only way i see folding this is if u are at the final table (which you are not) , short stacked, and there multiple all ins in front of you that assure you of profiting from the fold (moving up 2 or three places in the money). otherwise, u can't lay this down, cmon man!

[mrbab]

you are lucky you are pretty. (lol)
How did you finish in the tourney?
Any time you play a tourney you should play to win!!
You win that hand you probably have a very good shot at winning the tourney.

[ake]

yeah doggz is a real beauty queen

[dthorne04]

lol...

[DeenMartin]

You have the best hand.You have to call here.You can't win what you dont put in and your in great shape here.

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[Les_Worm]

most of you guys are missing the whole point here...heads up its a no brainer call....but in a 3 way pot he is only about a 60% favorite ...why risk your tournament life in a way pot when you dont have a huge edge...I fold here.

You aren't folding this shit Rip and you know it. I'm not folding here either. Look at the stack sizes. All the stacks are small except 1. You only have to beat 1 player to make money and you could scrape the whole pot.

[k8s]

Is this a serious question? CALL.

[mcatdog]

jesus I took a second look and saw it was a 4 way all in not a 3 way...no brainer fold...In a 4 way pot his Aces are just about a coin flip to hold up....dump it

I'd like to see an easier way to have a 50 percent chance of quadrupling your chip stack. Ripptyde being afraid to bust out of a tournament? Now I'm sure this is just a joke thread.

[Rondavu]

Call everytime. You see 4-5 way all ins constantly in Rebuys. High stacks are weapons of mass destruction. Seek possesion, but hide the chips in Iran if a world superpower comes knocking.

[DoGGz]

jesus I took a second look and saw it was a 4 way all in not a 3 way...no brainer fold...In a 4 way pot his Aces are just about a coin flip to hold up....dump it

I'd like to see an easier way to have a 50 percent chance of quadrupling your chip stack. Ripptyde being afraid to bust out of a tournament? Now I'm sure this is just a joke thread.

hahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaa

[DeenMartin]

So are we folding or not?

[Sprayed]

Yes, no, maybe so

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[maxxscam]

i agree with the seat situation but when trying to build a stack in a tourney with top heavy payouts i wont be folding aa preflop , no matter if all 9 players go all in i still call , in a situiation where folding may advance you to win a seat it is the right play, in fact i did so when i won my seat for the wsop folded aa and kk with 11 people left .

[guldus]

but he's not ITM and only 1 stack can bust him.

[mcatdog]

OK you are talking about a satellite which is a totally different situation. I folded KK in a satellite once also. In a top-heavy tournament structure there's no way you can justify folding aces preflop, I honestly don't believe that a winning player would advocate that. It's not like you're guaranteed to beat all of those short stacks anyway, especially if you keep folding every hand while they're playing aggressively and accumulating chips.

[mcatdog]

deleted

{This post has been removed}

[mcatdog]

H0w are you going to chip away at small pots if you're so terrified of busting out, that you'll fold pocket aces if a big stack goes all-in. By that rationale every time you try to win a small pot, the big stack can just put you all-in and you'll have to fold.

[swiggidy]

most of you guys are missing the whole point here...heads up its a no brainer call....but in a 3 way pot he is only about a 60% favorite ...why risk your tournament life in a way pot when you dont have a huge edge...I fold here.

Hero 7647
Carmen 9245
rhino 3996
jerylee 1165

pulling numbers out of my arse:
AA vs 1: 80%
AA vs 2: 70%
AA vs 3: 60%

Hero vs Carmen: (7647 - 3996) * 2 = 7302
Hero vs Carmen vs Rhino: (3996 - 1165) * 3 = 8493
Hero vs Carmen vs Rhino vs Jerylee: 1165 * 4 = 4660

Hero beats all: .6 * (7302 + 8493 + 4660) = 12,273
Hero beats Carmen and Rhino: (0.7 - 0.6) * (5663 + 7302) = 1579
Hero only beats Carmen: (0.8 - 0.7) * 7302 = 730

For a total eV of: 12,273 + 1579 + 730 = 14852

Or your final chip stack:
60%: 20455
10%: 15795
10%: 7302
20%: 0

But you would call a heads-up with Carmen:
eV: .8 * 7647 = 12235

80%: 15294
20%: 0

Given the 1k, 4k, 8k stack sizes it's slightly eV vs a single 8k stack, from Hero's perspective. This is exactly the same thing Bluffalufagus said in the second post and the only other meaningful post:

I usually fold this b/c I can outplay them postflop down the road with no risk.

doesn't apply to anyone else. There is also the added bonus that 70% of the time you're knocking 2 people out.

BTW, there is no quadrupling of the stack here, only a possible 2.7X. You want 4 even stacks?
0.6 * 4 * 7647 = 24470

80%: 30588
20%: 0

Do I make both calls? Hell. Ya. Can you argue against calling the second case? Sure. Can you argue against calling in the first case? Only if you would fold AA because a random bigger stack pushed against your AA and a 80-20% edge isn't enough.

So what would have happened Doggz?

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[mrbab]

Final table four all-in KK easy fold.
mid tourney AA fold = scared to play.
go play some other game.

Just my opinion!!

{This post has been removed}

[ilikeaces86]

LOL I was joking when I said I would fold AA preflop. I never fold AA preflop except in satelites. I thought u would all realize I was joking.....

[maxxscam]

call for sure its not even a decision in this case. if your in a ssatelite for seat to the wsop and are 5th in chips and they give out 10 seats wit 13 people left then yeah its a decion you have to make. in this case there is no desion to be made. if you are folding this then u better quit poker and go sell advertising space or something

another wannabee noob chimes in

Stop the flaming.

[mcatdog]

another wannabee noob chimes in

Stop the flaming.

Thanks dwarfman but you don't have to defend me, I couldn't care less who calls me a fucking dipshit. I'm used to these people insulting everyone else at the poker tables and making asses of themselves. If some of them found their way to FTR, who cares.

Aces I could tell that you were joking.

[Stripclubjunkie]

LOL I was joking when I said I would fold AA preflop. I never fold AA preflop except in satelites. I thought u would all realize I was joking.....

Good!

[Easy17]

hmm you know what at first i thought it was a joke but after reading rippys posts im starting to agree with him. - There are certainly times in a tourney where i should lay down AA. Im not sure if this one of those times, and i probably wouldnt have the hump to fold it but folding is not a bad option here imho.

[ake]

haha this turned out kinda funny, nice hand doggz

[Muxy]

yeah... i was like what is he thinking, so i wanted to find out the results so I go to the hand number and try to put it in stars, nothing comes out. good prank.

[THaC]

Tournament History for Tournament #18569976 requested by TbHackworth
([email protected])

PokerStars Tournament #18569976, No Limit Hold'em
Buy-In: $50.00/$2.50
2 players
Total Prize Pool: $100.00
Tournament started - 2006/01/24 - 05:53:56 (ET)
Tournament finished - 2006/01/24 - 06:03:12 (ET)
1: Stench6 (South Yarra), $100.00 (100%)
2: jones_unb (Amherst),

There are no personal statistics because you did not play in this
tournament.


Yay team.

[Lukie]

Seems like a pretty standard fold.

[ItDepends]

now where is michael when we need him. He would know what to do